Miami Dolphins 2022 Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

The 2022 NFL season is firmly on the horizon and over the coming weeks the Dimers crew will break down the chances of each and every team, all vying for Super Bowl 57 glory in Glendale, Arizona come February.

Let's take a look at the key factors to consider when betting on the Miami Dolphins in 2022.

The Miami Dolphins started the 2022 NFL regular season with a 1-7 record, but they finished at 9-8. That wasn’t enough to keep Brian Flores around as the head coach of this football team, and the Dolphins instead hired Mike McDaniel as his replacement.

Miami Dolphins Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks & Super Bowl Odds

Miami Dolphins

• 2021 Record: 9-8, 3rd in AFC East (Missed Playoffs)
• 2021 ATS:  9-7-1
• Key off-season losses: DeVante Parker WR, Mack Hollins WR
• Key off-season additions: Tyreek Hill WR, Chase Edmonds RB, Terron Armstead OT and Teddy Bridgewater QB 

Miami Dolphins 2022 Win Total - 8.5 

The Buffalo Bills are the team to beat in the AFC East, but it's only a matter of time before before the Dolphins come knocking on the door. Miami has a very good defense, with playmakers all over the field. Now, it's up to Mike McDaniel to bring some of the magic that made San Francisco's offense special to South Beach. 

The addition of Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs should help out Tua Tagovailoa. Hill had 1,239 yards receiving and nine touchdowns last year, and his world-class speed will make him and Jaylen Waddle a nightmare of a duo to defend. As a rookie, Waddle had 1,015 yards receiving and six touchdowns. Tight end Mike Gesicki also happens to be a serious threat in the passing game, as he caught 73 passes for 780 yards receiving and two touchdowns last season.

PICK: Over 8.5 wins

DimersBOT: In our model's 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season, the Dolphins averaged 8.65 wins per year. That suggests this win total from the oddsmakers is right on the money, but we have a slight lean on the Over. 

Miami Dolphins X-Factor - Tua Tagovailoa, QB

The Dolphins have almost everything they need in place at this point. But if Tagovailoa gets hurt, or just doesn’t live up to expectations with a new offensive-minded head coach, things will fall apart for Miami. Tagovailoa completed 67.8% percent of his passes for 2,653 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year, which are stats that look more like that of a game manager than a star.

This is absolutely a make-or-break year for Tagovailoa, who needs to find a way to lift the players around him instead of holding them back.

Miami Dolphins Super Bowl 57 Chances

The Dolphins (+4000) have very long odds to win the 2022 Super Bowl and it's hard to argue that should be any different. This is not going to be a worthy bet in the long run because of how tough the AFC will be in 2022. In order to win it all, an elite quarterback is needed and Tagovailoa hasn't proven to be anything close to that.

Miami can make the playoffs as a wild card in the AFC, but it's not going to do anything significant anytime soon — despite the talent the team has added to the roster.

DimersBOT: Nothing to see here. Our model only gives the Dolphins a 1.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl, so too much would have to break right in order for this team to win it all. 

Miami Dolphins 2022 Schedule 

• September 11, 2022 - vs New England Patriots
• September 18, 2022 - at Baltimore Ravens
• September 25, 2022 - vs Buffalo Bills
• October 29, 2022 - at Cincinnati Bengals
• October 9, 2022 - at New York Jets
• October 16, 2022 - vs Minnesota Vikings
• October 23, 2022 - vs Pittsburgh Steelers
• October 30, 2022 - at Detroit Lions
• November 6, 2022 -  at Chicago Bears
• November 13, 2022 - vs Cleveland Browns
• November 27, 2022 - vs Houston Texans
• December 4, 2022 -at San Francisco 49ers
• December 11, 2022 - at Los Angeles Chargers
• December 18, 2022 - at Buffalo Bills
• December 25, 2022 - Green Bay Packers
• January 1, 2023 - at New England Patriots
• January 8, 2023 - vs New York Jets