NASA predicts 3.1% probability asteroid hits Earth in 2032 - Five things more likely to happen

The latest prediction data from NASA suggests the probability of an asteroid colliding with Earth is getting higher and higher. In fact, the 3.1% probability of the asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, colliding with Earth is the highest ever assigned in history.

Someone get Aerosmith and Ben Affleck on the phone, folks.

Comfortingly called a "city killer," NASA has intermittently raised the probability of this space rock entering our orbit and crashing into the surface from about 1% to the current 3.1% probability since it was first discovered in December.

NASA says there’s a 3.1% chance a massive asteroid will smash into earth in 2032, destroying a major city.

Fair odds are +3126 😜

Are you tailing or fading @NASA?

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) February 19, 2025

On one hand, 3.1% doesn't sound like much - there are not many bets out there that we'd be confident in at those implied betting odds of +3126, but we've hit more than a few home run parlays at those odds before!

On the other hand, that's not exactly an insignificant number when it comes to impending doom. Heck, the Chicago White Sox get a 0.4% probability of reaching the World Series in 2025 - the asteroid is eight times as likely to hit Earth as the White Sox are to even reach the World Series, let alone win it.

Five things more likely to happen than an asteroid colliding with Earth

To help you feel a little better about this latest development around the rock hurtling towards our planet, we've highlighted the following five sports events that have a better chance of happening. Hopefully, these are enough to ease your mind until 2032.

The Washington Wizards win fewer than 14 games this season

Washington is having an all-time bad season in the NBA. They currently sit at 9-45 with the fewest wins in the league, winning on average 1 out of 5 games. That pace would keep them out of the worst teams of all time range, but they've also experienced two stretches of 16-straight losses this season. With 28 games to go, they'd have to win 6 of them to avoid going under their current win total of 13.5 on the books.

At +105 for them to go under, the implied probability of the Wizards winning 13 or fewer games this year is 48.7%, meaning the 2024-25 Wizards are 45.6% more likely to have a Top 10 worst record of all time in the NBA.

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The Dallas Cowboys make it to Super Bowl LX

Brace yourself Cowboys fans - you are more likely to see your team finally make it back to the Super Bowl after 30 years than we are to see Asteroid 2024 YR4 make contact with Earth.

While it's low-hanging fruit to make fun of the Cowboys futile efforts to reach the Super Bowl each year (would make Sisyphus proud), the fact is, the franchise is a shell of what it once was, now seemingly a coin flip to even make the playoffs most years, let alone make it to the Big Game.

However, this just may be glimmer of hope that longing Dallas fans need. While they're  out there at +6500 to win Super Bowl LX, their odds to make it there are less than half at +3000. That's an implied probability of 3.2%, just over the asteroid!

Congrats Cowboys fans, you are 0.1% more likely to be happy than we are to witness wanton destruction.

Yankees-Mets Subway World Series

Another one for Cowboys fans (just kidding) that should make you feel better about our prospects of being hit by an asteroid.

The Yankees and Mets sit among our expert MLB model's favorites to win their respective league and punch a World Series ticket in the upcoming season.

Our favorite in the American League, the Yanks get a 19.4% probability to make it to the Fall Classic while the Mets get a 10.0% probability, the fourth-highest in the National League in our 2025 World Series Predictions.

The Subway Series is iconic and we nearly got one last year - now we are looking at the potential of this classic matchup with the added narrative of Juan Soto defecting from one NY side to the other. As it stands, you can bet this matchup on the books at +2700, an implied probability of 3.6%, a whole half percentage higher than the asteroid.

Whew!

The Dallas Mavericks reach the NBA Finals after trading Luka Doncic

The trade heard 'round the world shook up the NBA landscape in a way we've not seen in quite some time, maybe ever, with a midseason NBA player swap.

Dallas shipped superstar Luka Doncic off to the Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis, who exited his first game with the team due to a groin injury.

As the subject of fan protests, boos, memes and everything in between, the Mavericks organization has come under fire for trading such a talented player in his prime and yet, they're not entirely out of it, at least by asteroid standards.

The Thunder are running through the West and get over a 40% probability to make it to the NBA Finals, but we give the Mavericks a respectable (again, by asteroid standards) 4.8% to topple OKC and make it back to the Finals a year after they were thumped by the Celtics in 5 games, according to our NBA Futures Predictions.

So maybe the Mavericks front office should respond to the protests that way - "still more likely to make the Finals than get hit by an asteroid."

Dimers hits a home run parlay

About those home run parlays we mentioned earlier...

One of our staples of Dimers is our famous Home Run Round Robins during the MLB season. We've historically crushed these - hitting them regularly throughout the peak MLB summer months.

Last season, we went on a heater in August - hitting 11 home run parlays, ranging from 2 legs to 4 legs, in just three weeks. 11 hits over 21 days. 

That's a 52% hit rate. Let's assume as if we never hit another in August and expand that over 30 days (not the case, just an example) and that's a 36.6% hit rate.

If those were the only 11 home run parlays we hit over 90 days all summer, that's a 12.2% hit rate.

You can see here that all but three of those parlays were at odds longer than +3125 (the implied odds of the asteroid's 3.1% probability), meaning that at Dimers, we are more likely to hit a monster longshot home run parlay.