NFL Predictions

NFL Predictions This Week

Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season brings intriguing matchups with significant divisional and playoff implications, highlighted by key predictions from Dimers. The action kicks off with the Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Washington Commanders in a critical NFC East clash on Thursday Night Football. Dimers gives the Eagles a 61% chance of victory, with a 3.5-point edge, positioning them as favorites. For the Commanders, who hold a 39% probability, this game presents a prime opportunity to disrupt Philadelphia's divisional lead and stay in the postseason conversation.

In the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers face off in a contest that could reshape the division standings. Dimers currently favors the Ravens with a 63% chance and a 3.5-point margin, indicating a slight edge in what is expected to be a hard-fought game. The Steelers, with a 37% probability, will need a strong showing to keep pace in a competitive division. This game’s outcome could be pivotal, as both teams look to secure a stronger playoff position and potential division title.

Moving beyond divisional matchups, the Detroit Lions are set to face the Jacksonville Jaguarswith one of the week's largest predicted spreads. Dimers gives the Lions a dominant 86% probability of victory, forecasting a 13-point advantage, making them clear favorites. For the Jaguars, who hold just a 14% chance, an upset would be monumental as they seek to overcome the odds. A win for the Lions would reinforce their standing as NFC North frontrunners and boost their postseason momentum.

Another game of note is the NFC West showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Dimers' predictions give the 49ers a 70% chance of victory and a 6.5-point advantage, positioning them as strong contenders to extend their lead in the division. The Seahawks, at 30% probability, face an uphill battle but remain determined to keep their playoff hopes alive. A win for the 49ers would allow them to tighten their grip on the division, while a Seattle victory could reinvigorate their push for a wildcard spot.

Rounding out the week’s top games, the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Los Angeles Chargersin a close matchup on Sunday night. Dimers has the Chargers slightly favored at 55% probability, with a slim 1.5-point edge, indicating a tightly contested affair. The Bengals, with a 45% chance of winning, will be eager to pull off an upset and make a statement on the road. Both teams are vying to secure a spot in the AFC playoffs, making this game a high-stakes showdown with potentially significant implications for the wildcard race.

NFL Predictions, Probabilities and Odds [Week 11]

As we take a deep dive into Week 11 NFL predictions, five matchups stand out based on their win probabilities and predictions. Here’s a look at the top five win probabilities for Week 11, based on Dimers’ predictions:

Lions 86% (vs. Jaguars)

The Detroit Lions lead with the highest probability of the week at 86% as they prepare to face the Jacksonville Jaguars. With a significant 13-point edge, the Lions are heavily favored to secure a dominant victory. This matchup offers the Lions a prime chance to extend their lead in the NFC North, and a win could further cement their playoff positioning. For the Jaguars, this game poses a tough challenge, especially as they look to overcome long odds.

Texans 75% (vs. Cowboys)

The Houston Texans hold the next highest probability, with Dimers giving them a 75% chance of defeating the Dallas Cowboys. Set for Monday Night Football, the Texans are positioned as favorites with a 7.5-point advantage. A win here would be crucial for Houston, as they aim to solidify their playoff standing and continue their upward momentum. The Cowboys, coming in as the underdogs, will need a remarkable performance to turn the tide, making this game a potential season-defining moment for both teams.

Dolphins 74% (vs. Raiders)

The Miami Dolphins, with a 74% probability, are favored to win against the Las Vegas Raiders, who come in with just a 26% chance. The Dolphins’ 7.5-point edge reflects their consistent offensive power this season, and they’ll aim to leverage that against a Raiders squad facing an uphill battle. A win for the Dolphins would strengthen their position in the AFC playoff race, while the Raiders will need a significant turnaround to avoid further slipping in the standings.

Vikings 73% (vs. Titans)

Dimers gives the Minnesota Vikings a 73% probability of winning as they go up against the Tennessee Titans. Favored by 5.5 points, the Vikings look to continue their strong season and solidify their place in the NFC playoff picture. The Titans, with a 27% chance, face a tough test on the road, but a win would be a major boost to their season and help them stay in contention. The Vikings’ favored status highlights their recent successes, positioning them well for a strong finish to the season.

Packers 73% (vs. Bears)

Finally, the Green Bay Packers enter their matchup against the Chicago Bears with a 73% probability of victory and a 6-point edge. In this classic NFC North rivalry, the Packers are expected to control the game, which could enhance their standing in a competitive division race. The Bears, facing long odds, will look to disrupt their rivals and play spoiler. This game holds significance for the Packers as they work to secure a stronger footing in the NFC North and reinforce their playoff aspirations.

NFL Week 11 Score Predictions Today

Several matchups stand out in Dimers' Week 11 predictions, with close scores and intriguing storylines. One of the most eye-catching projections is the Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, with the Eagles narrowly favored 26-23. While the Eagles have been among the NFC's most consistent teams, the Commanders have been surprisingly competitive, even against stronger opponents. A close game like this one suggests that Washington could make it difficult for Philadelphia to pull ahead, especially if the Commanders' defense finds a way to stymie the Eagles' dynamic offense.

The projection of a 24-20 win for the Rams over the Patriots is another notable prediction. While the Patriots have struggled this season, especially on offense, this four-point spread indicates the Rams might face resistance from New England’s defense at Gillette Stadium. For Los Angeles, a solid performance here could be a much-needed momentum builder. With both teams needing to demonstrate stability, this game will be a critical test of whether the Rams can overcome inconsistencies and maintain playoff ambitions in the NFC.

In a game with significant AFC playoff implications, Dimers projects a tight 24-21 victory for the Bills over the Chiefs. Both teams have showcased firepower and resilience this season, but they’ve also displayed some vulnerabilities, particularly on defense. This matchup could come down to which team executes better under pressure, especially in the fourth quarter. A win for the Bills would strengthen their standing in a crowded AFC playoff picture, while the Chiefs will look to avoid a damaging loss that could disrupt their bid for the top playoff seeds.

Finally, the Sunday night showdown between the Bengals and Chargers is projected to be a nail-biter, with a final score of 24-23 in favor of the Chargers. This one-point difference highlights the strengths of both offenses, particularly in high-pressure situations, while also indicating how evenly matched these teams are. Both squads feature dynamic quarterbacks and offensive weapons that could make for an explosive game. A win would be crucial for either team, especially with playoff seeding on the line, and fans can expect an electrifying battle in Los Angeles.

Our Best NFL Prediction for Week 11

Here is our best NFL Week 11 prediction. This prediction stands out because of a favorable edge, reflecting their potential for success based on both statistical probability and match-specific factors.

1. Falcons +2.5 spread (5.8% edge)

The prediction for the Atlanta Falcons to cover the +2.5 spread against the Denver Broncos stands out as one of the best Week 11 NFL picks. With a solid 58.2% probability of hitting, this forecast not only suggests a strong likelihood for the Falcons to cover but also provides a notable 5.8% edge, making it more favorable than many other betting options. At -110 odds, this play offers excellent value by leveraging the projected performance gap between the two teams. Given these favorable metrics, betting on the Falcons +2.5 provides a strategic edge in Week 11.

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