Updated Super Bowl 59 Predictions, Odds Ahead of NFL Conference Championships

The NFL Playoffs did not disappoint in the Divisional Round, with thrilling games from the first kickoff to the final whistle and our latest Super Bowl predictions are in.

We saw the Lions' dominant season come to an end while the Commanders' underdog run continues with a third-round rematch vs. the Philadelphia Eagles.

On the AFC side, we've got the latest chapter in Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen as the Bills and Chiefs clash once again for a trip to the Super Bowl.

If you've been betting the playoffs with Dimers, you're off to a good start. Our Divisional Round predictions found value in three spreads-- the Texans +9.5, Rams +6.5 and Commanders +9.5 -- as well as the Commanders to upset the Lions, a +400 winner.

It was always the Commanders!

Our model had this at +290 for fair odds - a huge edge and a +400 win for the DimersBOT. 🤖

If you had Dimers Pro, you had this all week.

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Down to the final four teams of the NFL Playoffs, we've updated our Super Bowl Predictions and probabilities to help you find the best odds for your best bet to win Super Bowl LIX.

RELATED: Dimers' Best NFL Player Props for the Conference Championships

Dimers' Updated Super Bowl 59 Predictions

Philadelphia Eagles (+180)

Super Bowl Win Probability: 34.4%

The Eagles are the favorite on the books and according to the Dimers model.

A dominant Wild Card win and a victory over the Rams where the score makes it look closer than it really was has put the Eagles in the driver's seat.

They're almost as healthy as can be, with their offensive arsenal primarily injury-free, with their most notable injury on the defensive side being LB Nakobe Dean who is out for the remainder of the playoffs.

The Eagles were a top Super Bowl contender all season, with the Eagles defeating the Chiefs our model's 8th-most likely exact Super Bowl result from preseason - we identified that play with an edge at +6600, as our model's 1.56% probability implied fair odds of +6310, and it's currently in play.

Now, we're about as aligned with the books as possible - +180 odds for Philadelphia to win Super Bowl 59 equates to a 35.7% probability, just over our 34.4% which implies fair odds of +190.

You won't find value in those odds but they're close to a fair price if you want to back the Birds. However, if you're confident in your AFC winner, you can find odds of +400 for the Eagles to beat the Chiefs or +450 for the Eagles to beat the Bills as an exact result for more than twice the payout of the Eagles to just win on their own.

NFC Championship Preview: Predictions, Best Bets and Props for Eagles vs. Commanders

Kansas City Chiefs (+240)

Super Bowl Win Probability: 27.7%

No matter how they need to do it, the Chiefs keep getting it done.

In a pivotal situation in last week's Divisional Round, the Chiefs blocked a Texans GF attempt late in the fourth quarter to effectively seal the win. It's these game-breaking plays alongside a deep roster and tenacious defense that continue to power the Chiefs to success.

They gear up for the latest clash with the Bills and another chapter in the Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen rivalry and come in as our model's second-most likely winner of Super Bowl 59. Preseason, the Chiefs were in four of our Top 10 most-likely Super Bowl matchups, with Chiefs vs. Eagles as our seventh-most likely scenario.

The Chiefs defense has been stellar, allowing less than 20 points in six straight games if you exclude their Week 18 game when they rested their starters. It's hard to win a playoff game when the other team doesn't let you score 20. Through 10 postseason games so far this year, not one winning team has scored fewer than 22 points, a major advantage for Kansas City if their offense can get rolling vs. a Bills defense that allowed 44 and 42 points to the Rams and Lions, two playoff teams, at the end of the season, and was gifted three Ravens turnovers in their narrow Divisional Round win.

Fair odds for Kansas City are spot-on with the books at +260.

AFC Championship Preview: Predictions, Best Bets and Props for Chiefs vs. Bills

Buffalo Bills (+260)

Super Bowl Win Probability: 26.0%

Less than 2% behind their AFC counterpart, the Bill are our model's third-most likely Super Bowl 59 winner. Preseason, we had the Bills in two of our Top 25 Super Bowl matchups - vs. the Lions and the Eagles.

Did the better team actually win last week? It's hard to say - the Ravens coughed the ball up 3 times in very avoidable turnovers and Mark Andrews dropped a game-tying 2-point conversion in the waning minutes. Nevertheless, it's the Bills in the AFC title game and not the Ravens.

Despite a piecemeal WR corps, Josh Allen has made the most of his squad, though you could tell this offense was missing an Alpha WR - his passing yards and touchdowns marks are the lowest since 2019. More importantly, he's limited turnovers, throwing just six interceptions this year, his lowest of his career and a third of what he threw last season.

Buffalo won the regular season meeting between these teams at a score of 30-21 but this Chiefs team has been much more efficient since. As mentioned, the Bills benefitted from a trio of takeaways vs. the Ravens - the Chiefs have not committed a turnover since their game vs. Buffalo. 

With our fair odds for Buffalo at +280, you're getting a little shorted on the odds here, so like the Eagles, consider them to take down either the Eagles (+380) or the Commanders (+1000) for some higher payouts.

AFC Championship Preview: Predictions, Best Bets and Props for Chiefs vs. Bills

Washington Commanders (+750)

Super Bowl Win Probability: 11.9%

The Cinderella of these playoffs, the Washington Commanders, round out our remaining Super Bowl 59 win probabilities.

No matter what happens on Sunday, the Commanders' season has been a resounding success. Under new Head Coach Dan Quinn and behind the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels at QB, the Commanders have surpassed all their expectations this season.

Projected as a bottom team in the division, they ended up at 12-5 and among the best teams in the NFC and the whole NFL - that record would have won half the league's division titles this season, and now Jayden Daniels is in position to be the first ever rookie QB to start a Super Bowl.

Their biggest problem will be containing Eagles superstar RB Saquon Barkley, who torched them for over 140 yards in both games this season. As they'll sell out to stop the run, their secondary will need to carry the weight and avoid letting Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown burn them for big plays. The final hurdle to reach Super Bowl LIX won't be easy.

They've beat the spread as underdogs with two outright wins so far, and our model favors them to cover the +6.5 vs. Philadelphia on Sunday. Looking ahead, you're getting fair odds from the books for the Commanders at +750, so if you like the Cinderella story to continue, you can't go wrong at these odds..

NFC Championship Preview: Predictions, Best Bets and Props for Eagles vs. Commanders

Probabilities for Each Super Bowl 59 Matchup

RELATED: Dimers' Best Bets in the NFL Conference Championships

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NFL Resources for Playoffs and Super Bowl 59

• NFL Playoff Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every postseason matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• Super Bowl LIX: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy this year?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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