NFL Playoff Picture: Looking At The Postseason Landscape Heading Into Week 18, 2022

Week 18 is here and the regular season is drawing to a close. By Sunday night we’ll know exactly which 14 teams we’ll see competing to play at Super Bowl LVII in February. The NFL playoff picture has been made slightly harder to understand due to the cancellation of last week’s clash between the Bills and Bengals after the horrific situation around Damar Hamlin. We’ll cover all eventualities in this article, so let’s get stuck into it. There are now 13 teams who are out of contention. Sorry to remind you, but if you’re a Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets or Washington Commanders fan, then your team won’t be in the postseason.

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This time last week we had nine teams locked in and they’ve been joined by another three teams this past week.

Over in the AFC we’ve have the 13-3 Kansas City Chiefs, who won the AFC West and the 12-3 Buffalo Bills who won the AFC East. Over in the AFC North we have the 11-4 Cincinnati Bengals and 10-6 Baltimore Ravens. Making up the five teams to have qualified from the AFC are the 10-6 Los Angeles Chargers, who cannot win their division.

Over in the NFC we have three teams from the NFC East, with the 13-3 Philadelphia Eagles and 12-4 Dallas Cowboys are still fighting for the divison and the 9-6-1 New York Giants back in the playoffs for the first time since that infamous photo on a yacht. The 12-4 Minnesota Vikings are in as NFC North winners, as are the 12-4 San Francisco 49ers who won the NFC West. The final team to make the cut are the 8-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Tom Brady’s men sealing the NFC South title last week.

If the season ended today we’d also see the Jaguars and Patriots reaching the playoffs from the AFC and the Seahawks managing it in the NFC.

As we enter Week 18 let’s take a look at the possible outcomes and who can seal their spot and let’s start with the AFC and more specifically determining seeds, who gets the bye and ultimately where the AFC Championship Game will be played.

The NFL teams whose playoff picture will be determined in Week 18

The Kansas City Chiefs currently sit as the #1 seed and they’ll remain in that position if they beat the Raiders, or the Bills lose to the Patriots.

The Buffalo Bills can grab the #1 seed if the opposite happens, with them beating the Patriots and the Chiefs lose to the Raiders.

Then there’s the #2 seed. The Bengals will likely be the #3 seed but if they beat the Ravens and Bills lose to the Patriots they’ll leapfrog the Bills and get the #2 seed.

So now it’s gets tricky. The AFC Championship could potentially be played at a neutral stadium, but in order for that to happen we’d need the following to happen.

The Bills and Chiefs both win (or tie) this week and both end up meeting in the AFC Championship game. It’ll also happen if both teams lose this week, in addition to the Bengals also losing and being unable to get the #2 seed. Finally we’ll also see it at a neutral venue if the Bills and Chiefs both lose, the Bengals win and the AFC title game is either Bills vs. Chiefs or Bengals vs. Chiefs. Got that?

Well to make it even trickier there’s also the AFC North title to keep in mind. If the Cincinnati Bengals win they have won the division, however they might end up facing the Baltimore Ravens if the Ravens finish as 6th seeds. If that happens then, there will be a coin flip to see who has home advantage for Super Wild Card weekend.

Okay, now that we’ve got past that lets look at the rest of the AFC. The most interesting matchup is Saturday’s AFC South title decider between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans with the winner sealing the division. If the Jags lose they have a long shot chance of making the playoffs but they’d need the Steelers, Patriots and Dolphins all to lose on Sunday.

The New England Patriots control their own destiny, knowing that a win would lock up their wildcard spot.

The Miami Dolphins still have a puncher’s chance, they need to beat the Jets and then hope the Bills do them a favor and beat the Patriots.

It’s unlikely we’ll see the Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs but Mike Tomlin’s team can still do it. They’ll need to beat the Browns and for the Patriots and Dolphins to lose in order for that to happen.

Over in the NFC we have a few possible outcomes. The Philadelphia Eagles will be #1 seed if they beat the Giants or the Cowboys and 49ers both lose. 

If they lose then that opens the door for the San Francisco 49ers who’ll take the top seed off them if they beat the Cardinals. Even worse for the Eagles would be if divisional rivals, the Dallas Cowboys take the #1 seed and clinch the bye, but for that to happen they’d need to beat the Commanders and for the Niners and Eagles to lose.

The NFC East is obviously still undecided and the Eagles claim that with a win, however losing would let the Cowboys claim the title if they also beat the Commanders.

The final spot in the playoffs hinges on two games Lions at Packers and Rams at Seahawks. Aaron Rodgers can take the Green Bay Packers into the #7 seed if they beat the Lions. But if the Detroit Lions win then they’ll need the Seahawks to have lost to the Rams earlier on Sunday to get a postseason. If the Seattle Seahawks beat the Rams then they’ll need the Lions to beat the Packers and will be watching SNF keenly hoping that Jared Goff can do them a favor.