NFL Divisional Round Same Game Parlay Picks: Commanders vs. Lions SGP for Saturday Night

Update: The projections in this article have been updated to reflect the most recent simulations from our predictive model.

We're putting our projections to the test for our NFL Divisional Round Same Game Parlay for the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions game on Saturday night.

The current Super Bowl favorite Lions are well rested after a week off, but they'll face a tough challenge against a Washington Commanders team led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels.

Every bet and insight featured in these parlays will be sourced directly from our Dimers Pro data, our all-encompassing subscription service. Dimers Pro features the best NFL bets, NFL player props, Super Bowl LIX predictions, parlay picks and NFL betting trends analyzed by our in-house cutting-edge predictive models.

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+475 Commanders vs. Lions Same Game Parlay Picks

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our Same Game Parlay in Commanders vs. Lions.

MORE: Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions Full Betting Preview

Leg 1: David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown

David Montgomery’s return to the Lions’ lineup couldn’t come at a better time. Known for his physical running style and nose for the end zone, Montgomery has been a key goal-line weapon for Detroit, scoring five touchdowns in his last five full games. Even with Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield, Montgomery’s role near the goal line is secure, and head coach Dan Campbell has a romantic side to him, often trying to find and/or invent ways to involve his best players and build up their confidence. With a 52.2% probability to score, per Dimers' touchdown predictor, Montgomery is poised to punch it in against the Commanders' defense.

Leg 2: Jayden Daniels 40+ Rushing Yards

Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has been electric on the ground this season, especially since recovering from a mid-season rib injury. Over his last five games, Daniels has averaged 10.6 rush attempts, showcasing his willingness to exploit defensive gaps with his legs. The Lions’ defense, while stout against running backs, ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks, making this a perfect opportunity for Daniels to take advantage. Dimers Pro projects him for 42 rushing yards, giving confidence that he’ll surpass this mark in a game where his mobility could be the X-factor.

Leg 3: Amon-Ra St. Brown 70+ Receiving Yards

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been the centerpiece of the Lions' passing attack all season, consistently delivering big performances. He’s eclipsed 70 receiving yards in four of his last six games and is projected for 80 yards by Dimers’ player prop predictor in this matchup. With Detroit expected to lean on their stars, St. Brown’s ability to create separation and dominate intermediate routes should see him hit this line comfortably against a Commanders' secondary that has struggled to contain top-tier receivers.

Leg 4: Zach Ertz 30+ Receiving Yards

Zach Ertz has become one of Jayden Daniels’ most reliable targets, particularly in critical situations. Coming off back-to-back games of 44 and 72 receiving yards, Ertz is well-positioned to continue his strong form. The Lions’ defense, while tough in some areas, has been porous against the pass, allowing the most passing yards in the NFL over the last five games. Dimers Pro projects Ertz for 41 yards, making 30+ a conservative play with strong value. For those feeling bold, his alternate lines could also deliver a nice payout, but this mark feels like a safe lock for our parlay.

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