How to Assess Cleveland Browns Futures Bets with Deshaun Watson’s Status Uncertain

Super Bowl 57 and over/under win total lines are out for every NFL team — except one.

Dimers.com contributor Paul Lebowitz takes digs into why and how bettors should assess the kind of season the Browns might have.

Pro Football Hall of Fame coach and broadcaster John Madden is widely credited with quipping, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have none.”

This could refer to a coach’s lack of decisiveness in picking a starter and sticking with him. It could mean having two who are passable with neither good enough to clamp down on the job. Or, it could mean that the locker room is not big enough for two players who have a legitimate argument to start.

Flipping the statement around, it could also be asked: What if you have no quarterback even if you have two?

The New York Times reported Tuesday that Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson booked massage appointments with at least 66 different women over 17 months, from fall 2019 through spring 2021. https://t.co/GpqgGDgvQi

— ESPN (@espn) June 8, 2022

The Cleveland Browns appeared to be an up and coming force in 2020 after they went 11-5, bashed the Pittsburgh Steelers 48-37 in the Wild Card round, and put a scare into the eventual AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs before succumbing 22-17.

Former first overall draft pick Baker Mayfield was maturing (albeit incrementally) and had cut his interceptions from 21 to 8 while improving statistically in just about every category. His swagger and fearlessness were on full display throughout the season.

In 2021, the Browns took a step back. They fell to 8-9, missed the playoffs and a rift between the club and Mayfield grew wider. Mayfield’s performance faltered, but he was playing with a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder and it obviously hindered him.

QUICK STORY: Baker Mayfield and the team have been at odds since the #Browns acquired Deshaun Watson in March. The team has been trying to trade Mayfield. https://t.co/AhTDM3fJhc

— Chris Easterling (@ceasterlingABJ) June 8, 2022

Among the reported issues were the club’s uncertainty that it wanted to commit the dollars necessary to sign Mayfield to a contract extension and his feud with former Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr. escalating to the point that Mayfield was accused of refusing to throw the ball to the gifted, yet temperamental, receiver. By releasing Beckham, it appeared the Browns took Mayfield’s side.

"It was distracting" - Browns players reveal how feud between Odell Beckham Jr. and Baker Mayfield played out in locker room https://t.co/ctsdWES3TU

— Sportskeeda Pro Football (@SKProFootball) June 6, 2022

After the season, however, the Browns chose to take advantage of Deshaun Watson’s ongoing legal situation and that his playing days with the Houston Texans were over, acquiring him for a haul of draft picks and signing him to a $230 million, fully guaranteed contract.

For all intents and purposes, this ended Mayfield’s tenure in Cleveland.

Or did it?

At the halting, stonewalling and platitude-filled introductory press conference, Watson, head coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry appeared unprepared for the onslaught of questions about Watson’s departure from the Texans and what he was – and is still being – accused of.

Keep in mind Calvin Ridley got a full year suspension for a $1500 bet.@NFL anything less than 2 years for Deshaun Watson is an absolute joke.

— Bills Run Deep (@BillsRunDeep2) June 6, 2022

Unlike other press conferences in which star players are brought before the media for an anointing, this was comparable to a legal team defending a client, proclaiming innocence, asserting exoneration and parrying clear evidence of wrongdoing that was left unpursued due to legal technicalities.

Then, just as team activities were getting underway, more allegations cropped up. Now the Browns and Watson are waiting to see what the NFL does in terms of punishment. Given the beating the NFL has taken in the past for its seemingly cavalier attitude toward player wrongdoing, Watson and the Browns should expect the worst.

So where does that leave the Cleveland Browns with bettors weighing how to wager for the 2022 season?

Browns GM showing up to Baker Mayfield’s house tonight pic.twitter.com/Y8ro0hod10

— Shooter McGavin (@ShooterMcGavin_) June 7, 2022

The Browns are in a strong AFC North that did lose a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, who was suspended six games in 2010 over allegations of sexual assault. And the Browns do have a high-powered offense, a respectable defense and had a well-regarded draft class.

But they do not know who will be under center at the start of the season.

That’s kind of important when betting.

Depending on what happens with Watson, the Browns could end up needing Mayfield. From Mayfield’s perspective, there are few open spots around the NFL to start. Factoring in the relatively late date for him to be traded, sign a contract extension and learn an offense, Mayfield is similarly boxed in.

Are the #Browns comfortable with Jacoby Brissett at QB all year if Deshaun Watson is suspended that long? Hey, Mary Kay! https://t.co/MmLgyHbXuG

— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) June 12, 2022

For depth and with the clear expectation that they were trading Mayfield, the Browns signed veteran Jacoby Brissett. He’s competent and can run an offense, but for a team that functioned with the first overall pick and Heisman Trophy winner in Mayfield and then traded for a three-time Pro Bowler who won a National Championship at Clemson in Watson, it’s not an insult to Brissett to say that he is not what they want in terms of star power.

Given their uncertainty at the most crucial of all positions on the football field, the Browns might not be what conservative bettors are looking for, but could be a reasonable risk for a big payout if they manage to glue it together despite the apparent exercise in ineptitude that has been the hallmark of the organization for all too long.