How Tanking Impacts Sports Betting on MLB

In recent years, newly hired baseball front offices have frequently taken the tack of a complete tear down from what their predecessors left behind, bringing the organization down to expansion-level status so it can be rebuilt from the ground-up, based on the new architect’s philosophy.

Derisively and accurately referred to as “tanking,” the concept goes that the worse a team is, the higher their draft picks and the better prospects they will get. The trading of high-priced veterans serves the dual purpose of saving money and acquiring other teams’ prospects to fill a bare cupboard. 

These rebuilds are viewed through the prism of times when they worked to perfection, as was the case with the Astros and Cubs. Nevertheless, it does not always yield the desired results as the Phillies, White Sox and Tigers are showing now.

Dimers.com contributor Paul Lebowitz discusses what to watch for when teams "tank" down the stretch.

When MLB Tanking Backfires

When new front offices plan a rebuild, they are prepared for – if not outright want – a lot of losing. 

Such was the case with the 2017 Twins. Using the old-school sensibilities of former GM Terry Ryan and his staff, the Twins had lost 103 games in 2016. Derek Falvey was hired away from division rival Cleveland to oversee the rebuild.

That winter, the Twins did very little in terms of importing big name veterans to improve on a 103-loss roster. They made some sabermetrically friendly moves for competent – and tradeable – veterans such as signing catcher Jason Castro, but they essentially moved forward with the same roster as the previous year and retained manager Paul Molitor. 

The club had a well-regarded farm system and young players acquired by Ryan just getting to the majors led by Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios. They also had still-productive veterans Joe Mauer, Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier.

As the 2017 season progressed, they improved dramatically from 2016 and hovered around .500. In the weak Wild Card race, they were within striking distance of a playoff spot as the trade deadline approached and were receiving subtle encouragement to go for it.

Almost annoyed at the sabotaging of their plan to lose so they could do what they wanted in terms of roster construction, Falvey and GM Thad Levine traded for Jaime Garcia to boost the starting rotation, then traded him to potential playoff opponent the Yankees a week later after they fell below .500. They also dealt their closer Brandon Kintzler to the Nationals. 

Over the final two months, they went 35-24 to take the second Wild Card spot setting up a match against the Yankees. They knocked Luis Severino out of the box in the first inning with a three-spot before losing 8-4. 

This season was indicative of the obstacles that inconvenient winning can present. Not only did the Twins need to adjust their intentions due to a weak league and a postseason spot they really didn’t want, but it forced them to retain AL Manager of the Year Molitor and give him a three-year contract extension when they otherwise might have wanted to hire their own person.

After a 78-84 record in 2018, Molitor was fired and Falvey and Co. could do as they wished with their roster without the untimely winning with inherited players and staff getting in the way.

Which MLB Teams are Going To Be Tanking in 2022?

How, you may ask, does this impact bettors in the 2022 season?

This season has been one of oddities. Barring borderline miraculous comebacks, three of the divisions have already been decided with the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers holding double-digit leads. 

With the different playoff format in which the two division winners with the best records are getting byes to the Division Series; three Wild Cards in each league are making the postseason; and those Wild Card teams and the division winner with the worst record play a best two-of-three-game series all at the home park of the club with the superior record, more teams can justify refusing to sell off veterans at the trade deadline, adding players, or standing pat. 

In 2022, there are also at least eight teams that are likely to lose 95 to 100 games. It’s certainly a seller’s market. 

ESPN's @Kurkjian_ESPN on the #Orioles ahead of MLB's trade deadline:

"I would ride it out and say 'we're gonna try to make the playoffs in a year where no one gave us a chance to do anything.'" pic.twitter.com/Hootw75nn4

— Bobby Trosset (@bobbytrosset) July 11, 2022

Teams that are in flux and hovering around that “What do we do?” netherworld as the deadline approaches include the Orioles, Giants, White Sox, Marlins and Guardians.

They have players to trade, but it’s difficult to explain that to the fans when there’s a reasonably good shot of making the playoffs and it not being a one-game roll of the dice as it was for the 2017 Twins. 

The Orioles are a case study of how a rapid rise can simultaneously be a positive and a negative. GM Mike Elias came over from the Astros to rebuild from the ground up in 2019. In the two non-COVID shortened seasons, they lost 108 and 110 games. They were heading toward another 90-loss season until two hot months got them above .500 and well within range of a Wild Card. 

They’re playing over their heads and beating on mediocre and bad teams. 

So are the Mariners. Unless we’re in the middle of a ‘Major League’-like story of misfits make good, the Orioles do not have the personnel to pose a serious threat to the Yankees or Astros. 

Therefore, it makes little sense for them to be overly aggressive in adding at the deadline. Nor does it make sense to hold on to pending free agent veteran power bats like Trey Mancini (his contract has a mutual option for 2023) when he will be a prize for offense-hungry teams at the deadline. 

Can they justify trading him? Are they going to sign him? Does holding onto that asset hinder them in the coming years when their deep farm system bears fruit and they can bring in even more high-end talent if they trade him?

The history of those heading up baseball ops is also important. It’s a safe bet that Jerry Dipoto of the Mariners will buy-buy-buy. 

The #Mariners have the second best rotation ERA since Memorial Day. That said, adding another established starting pitcher prior to the MLB trade deadline should be *the* priority for the M's.https://t.co/zjnXhDdxZY

— Luke Arkins (@luke_arkins) July 18, 2022

Farhan Zaidi with the Giants is a pragmatist, so selling is a higher probability. Who knows with Elias? 

It’s easy for bettors to look at teams that are going nowhere like the Nationals, Angels, Royals, Tigers, Athletics, Reds and Cubs, gauge their rosters and make educated guesses as to where Nelson Cruz, Josh Bell, Whit Merrifield, Joey Votto and David Robertson among others might end up. 

The Orioles, Giants and White Sox are more complex with great rewards possible if bettors guess right.