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Experts release new Chiefs vs. Bills prediction after milestone Travis Kelce AFC Championship update
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game of the NFL Playoffs on Sunday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. EST.
All week, discussions about alleged officiating bias favoring the Chiefs in their previous playoff victory against the Houston Texans have dominated the lead-up to this game. Tight end Travis Kelce, at the center of these conversations, addressed the allegations during his "New Heights" podcast alongside his brother Jason.
Kelce brushed off criticisms, including those made by hip-hop legend Lil Wayne, who accused the Chiefs of benefitting from questionable referee decisions. Despite the controversy, Kelce maintained focus on preparing for the Bills, a game that could decide the Chiefs' third consecutive Super Bowl appearance.
In addition to the ongoing chatter about officiating, Friday brought a significant update to the AFC Championship narrative when Bet365 released their Milestone Player Props for Travis Kelce. These odds provide new insights into expectations for Kelce’s performance on Sunday, which has prompted Dimers to adjust their Chiefs vs. Bills predictions.
Kelce's new milestone AFC Championship prop odds:
Receiving Yards:
50: -330
60: -185
70: -110
80: +145
Touchdowns:
Anytime: +125
2 or More: +850
3 or More: +5500
Receptions:
3: -3500
4: -1100
5: -425
6: -200
This update prompted our data analysts to reevaluate their Chiefs vs. Bills predictions and player stat projections using new simulations that factored in the latest Kelce updates.
The results of their simulations were compared to updated sportsbook odds to compile the data-driven Chiefs-Bills preview below.
Bills vs. Chiefs betting preview
Explore the interactive widget below to see the current spread, over/under, and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Bills-Chiefs matchup at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Pre-Game Probabilities
Last Updated: 6:45PM, Jan 26
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Over / Under
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Check out all the important details on tonight’s game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.
Game details
Key information on the Bills vs. Chiefs matchup, including where the game is and what time it kicks off.
- Teams: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. EST
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- NFL standings: Current NFL division standings
- NFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury report
Odds
The latest and best odds for the NFL clash between the Bills and Chiefs.
- Spread: Bills +1.5 (-105), Chiefs -1.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Bills +110, Chiefs -125
- Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-108/-110)
The odds and lines featured here are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Fans of both teams can unlock betting bonuses with the AFC Championship betting promo from FanDuel and our BetMGM bonus code "DIMERSPRO, while Bet365′s $150 sign-up offer has emerged as the most popular AFC Championship betting deal among local fans.
Expert prediction: Bills vs. Chiefs
Leveraging state-of-the-art data analysis and machine learning, the experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Bills vs. Chiefs matchup.
According to Dimers' popular predictive analytics model, the Chiefs are more likely to beat the Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Chiefs a 54% chance of winning the game.
Furthermore, Dimers predicts that the bookies have gotten it right and the Bills and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points has a 55% chance of staying under.
As always, these predictions and probabilities are accurate at the time of publication but are subject to change.
Bills vs. Chiefs best bet
Our top pick for the Bills vs. Chiefs game on Sunday is to bet on Under 48.5 points (-110).
This expert betting advice is based on comprehensive modeling and valuable betting intelligence, designed to bring you the best possible plays.
Score prediction for Bills vs. Chiefs
Dimers' projected final score for the Buffalo vs. Kansas City game on Sunday has the Chiefs winning 24-23.
This expert prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations, offering a glimpse into the potential outcome.
NFL player props: Sunday
NFL prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on Sunday's game without necessarily betting on its outcome.
This article features the most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers for the Bills and Chiefs, as well as projected player stats.
Buffalo Bills
First touchdown scorer predictions
- Josh Allen: 10.8% probability
- James Cook: 8.4% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 5.4% probability
Anytime touchdown predictions
- Josh Allen: 46.5% probability
- James Cook: 38.6% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 27.7% probability
Projected box score leaders
- QB passing yards: Josh Allen, 232 yards
- Receiving yards: Khalil Shakir, 55 yards
- Rushing yards: James Cook, 64 yards
Kansas City Chiefs
First touchdown scorer predictions
- Kareem Hunt: 9.2% probability
- Travis Kelce: 8.2% probability
- Xavier Worthy: 6.8% probability
Anytime touchdown predictions
- Kareem Hunt: 40.1% probability
- Travis Kelce: 37.9% probability
- Xavier Worthy: 32.3% probability
Projected box score leaders
- QB passing yards: Patrick Mahomes, 272 yards
- Receiving yards: Travis Kelce, 60 yards
- Rushing yards: Kareem Hunt, 34 yards
Get ready for Sunday's game between the Bills and Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game of the NFL season at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 6:30 p.m. EST.
We emphasize that all of the NFL best bets and NFL predictions on this page are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Bills vs. Chiefs game, and they are correct at the time of publishing to help you make better decisions when placing bets.
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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