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European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending May 1
It's time for another European adventure, with Prospector Sam providing picks for four of the biggest soccer leagues in the world.
There’s nothing quite as satisfying as hitting a bet you really put your name behind. Last week, I pretty much went balls to the wall (I thought about being more eloquent, but nothing else did it justice) on Basel to win their match with Luzern at -140, because the line seemed completely off the rails to me. As I put it, “some of the best value I’ve seen in a while.” But, when you stick your neck out like that, there’s always a chance that someone comes along with an ax and chops it right off and boy does it look bad (especially when you have an article to memorialize it).
Thankfully, our plants-based friends over in Switzerland did their job comfortably, winning 3-0, and I got to enjoy the moment (also, breathe a sigh of relief). Building trust in bets is partially about being good, but I’ve found that people need to hear how you think and where your angle is to really believe where you’re coming from. And, as part of that, you also need to be able to show people where the value is to make them believe you know the difference between a big edge and a small one. Last week, I passed that test nicely and it was a big bright spot for me, especially after receiving a couple of nice notes in the Tweeter DMs from people who said they’d never have bet that game in a million years if it weren’t for my strong endorsement.
Will there be more “super mega whale locks” to come? Probably. But they will be few and far between because, as you might expect, books aren’t “wrong” all that often. But, in the meantime, we can still try our best to make some money. Let’s gamble, shall we?
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🇪🇸 Alaves vs. Villareal: Saturday April 30, 8:00 AM EST
A bit like our bet on City over in England, part of the challenge with Villareal is how much their massive midweek fixture will impact them. They aren’t quite as deep as City and they had to travel for the first leg, so they may not be on top of their game for a weekend match against an Alaves side who desperately need a win. But, while there are concerns, Villareal have been spectacular recently and I have enough faith in their quality to bet on them finding goals. Alaves’ defensive record isn’t horrendous at 55 conceded in 33 games, but they regularly give up multiple to top half teams and conceded 5 in the reverse fixture this campaign. So, getting +106 for Villareal to score over 1.5 feels like a solid payout, especially because they do need to win this match for table positioning (assuming they can’t win the UCL, which is a pretty safe bet after their 2-0 loss in leg 1). Villareal should build on their recent success and put a couple in here, though I wouldn’t go betting on a higher number than that. 2-0 or 2-1 feels like a comfortable expectation, and I’ll take the safety of the team total (which protects from odd results) rather than the ML.
⛏️ PICK: Villareal Team Total OVER 1.5 (+106, 1.5U)
🇧🇪 Charleroi vs. Gent: Saturday April 30, 12:00PM EST
Back to Belgium! And why not, we hit our Over 2.5 on Union SG/Anderlecht in 26 minutes last weekend so might as well try it again. And, in line with that symmetry, we’re going right back to the proverbial well for an over 2.5 bet on this match that’s very generously priced at -122. Both of these teams struggled in their last match and got shut out, but on the year each averages almost 2 goals per game and both are fully capable of clipping this number on their own. With the weird Jupiler League format neither has any real reason to play this game safe either, as only the top team in the “Conference League Group” makes that competition, so both will be aggressive going for all 3 points. The biggest danger is Charleroi’s struggle to show up some days, which would put the burden on Gent entirely, but I think they can do enough and get us at least a goal here. Remember, both may have played low scoring matches last time out but Belgian soccer tends to skew towards higher goal totals and I believe we see more of the norm here.
⛏️ PICK: Total Goals OVER 2.5 (-122, 2U)
🇮🇹 Udinese-Inter: Sunday May 1, 12 PM EST
We’re going to get a little boring here, but boring is fine in gambling so long as it makes money. While I enjoy a nice sweat, and the accompanying heart palpitations, as much as the next gambler, I probably need to avoid them to not die before 50. So where are we going? Inter Team Total Over 1.5, which isn’t gonna buy you a ton at -160 but has great value for some bankroll. Inter are in great form and are still pushing for the Serie A Title, while Udinese’s season is more or less over. Not only have Inter won their last 5 matches, they’ve score 2+ in the last 4 and their offense is finally clicking again (Editors Note: I wrote this before they lost 2-1 to Bologna midweek. Im’m going to chalk that game up as a “confusing anomaly”). Against an Udinese side that’s conceded 52 goals in 34 matches, 2+ should be very attainable and may even be necessary considering the home side also score about 1.5 per game. I think this match set’s up for Inter to find the net, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they closed this one out early. Throw in some corners for a bonus to get a little more value and to get a bit more aggressive on an angle I like a lot (they aren’t posted as of yet, but Over 4.5 Away Cornes should get you a good boost).
⛏️ PICK: Inter Team Total OVER 1.5 (-160: 2U)
🇩🇰 Midtjylland-Copenhagen: Sunday May 1, 12:00 PM EST
As far as “matches to decide trophies'' go, one that will help decide the Danish Superliga title probably isn’t high on most people’s list of significance. But the Gold Diggers aren’t “most people,” and Denmark has been a place where we’ve won a good amount of money over the last few months as the horde has grown. It’s fun, because you feel sort of ridiculous betting on a soccer that almost nobody cares about, but it’s also a place where we’ve proven we can make a profit, largely because the lines tend to be less meticulously set. And, to keep that success going, we’re going to throw our coins down here on both teams to score. These two are the best that the Superliga has to offer, and their goal scoring records (48 through 27 for both) reflect that quality. While they also have strong defensive units (in particular Copenhagen), both win games on the offensive end and neither has been particularly great as of late. While a late season match with title implications would usually spell some cautious and dull soccer, Midtjylland is coming in with a bunch of momentum and need three points to keep hope alive of lifting the trophy. That should mean chances on both ends as the home side pushes for goals, and I think both scores a minimum of 1. At -144 the price isn’t spectacular, but it’s good enough to have some value and should be a solid bankroll builder (much like our last bet).
⛏️ PICK: Both Teams to Score - YES (-144, 1.5U)
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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