Euro Soccer Picks: Bets From European Football on Saturday, October 22 and Sunday, October 23, 2022

Prospector Sam's is locked and loaded with his European soccer bets to deliver you more winners this weekend.

Time to get philosophical. Gambling, like life, is all about adaptability. Just as humans have had to survive for thousands upon thousands of years against the threat of plague, food shortage, and even other humans (or sharks, fuck those things), gamblers have to adjust to meet the ever-changing challenges presented by sports and the betting landscape.

This year’s soccer slate has been a true test of that concept. With the typical schedule completely obliterated by the winter World Cup, soccer gamblers have had to learn on the fly to survive the foreign terrain presented by a congested fixture schedule. While that might not sound all that complicated, it genuinely has been. Inconsistency and sluggish performances litter the board every day as teams try to cope with the extra demands, and it makes picking games all the more difficult, and I have not been immune from the struggles.

Is that me trying to cop out of last week’s article where every bet lost? No, it is not. In fact, it’s an admission of just that fact and a time to recognize that I too need to make some adjustments. While I’m a traditionally profitable soccer gambler, these last few weeks have thrown me for a loop and I can either evolve or die (metaphorically speaking). I choose to evolve, and this week’s slate will look a bit unfamiliar to those who bet with me regularly.

Time to get after it.

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Euro Soccer Best Bets: October 22 & 23

Augsburg-Leipzig: Saturday October 22, 9:30 AM EST

Let’s talk unders. Soccer unders are a dangerous and unwanted endeavor for most gamblers, largely because they’re so frustrating and frightening. Unlike most sports, a soccer under can disappear in a flash. That could mean an early death in the first half, or a bet that looks destined to hit only for everything to go up in flames as multiple goals are scored in the last 10 minutes. For the traditional line of 2.5, betting the under is a true test of your nerves.

That said, they do hit a lot, as anyone who bets overs is keenly aware of, and they have their place in any good gambler’s repertoire. In line with that sentiment, we’re going with an under here - but not just any under, we’re taking a team total under.

Leipzig TT Under 1.5 is +162, and frankly it’s a pretty good place to be. Leipzig have been woefully inconsistent all year, which accounts for their 11th place spot in the table, and they’ve been consistently BAD on the road. Leipzig have scored just three goals in five away games this season in the Bundesliga, which makes their prospects of finding multiple, even against Augsburg, not great. Add in that Leipzig have a massive midweek UCL fixture against Real Madrid, and it wouldn't be shocking to see a let down here. So, while TT unders aren’t usually my cup of tea, the rationale and price hold up pretty well as far as good gambling tactics. Let’s try something different.

PICK: Leipzig Team Total Under 1.5 (+162, 1.25 units at Caesars Sportsbook)

Vitesse-Emmen: Saturday October 22, 3:00 PM EST

Ok, so maybe I’m not a completely changed man. Because, despite my best efforts, I still found my way back to a traditional TT over here on Vitesse at -130 for over 1.5 goals. Old habits die hard, I suppose.

The key on this pick is that, while we may be using an old trick, there are some crucial factors that make this bet a bit more enticing. To start, Vitesse don't have any European soccer to worry about, so tired legs and look ahead fixtures aren't a concern for us. On top of that, Emmen are just an absolute disaster on the road and it’s hard to ignore their whopping zero points and 15 goals conceded in five away fixtures this season.

Vitesse aren’t without their issues. This team has struggled over the last year and a half after a promising fourth placed finish in 2021, and their current hold on 15th place behind clubs like Cambuur and Go Ahead Eagles isn’t exactly inspiring. But, while they aren't having a great year, Vitesse will inevitably progress the table based on quality alone, and home games against relegation sides are the place where that progression will happen. Take Vitesse to find two.

PICK: Vitesse Team Total Over 1.5 (-130, 1.75 units at Caesars Sportsbook)

Gent-Seraing: Sunday October 23, 10:00 AM EST

One of the more interesting issues I’ve been toying with lately is how to deal with the issue of low payout bets on TT Over 1.5. Giving out a heavy favorite to score 2+ goals at -200 isn't all that interesting or valuable to people looking for picks, and my preferred approach has been to ladder those bets to balance the over 1.5 (low risk low reward) and the over 2.5 (high risk high reward).

That strategy has high upside, particularly if both bets hit, but it also has a couple of massive drawbacks. For one, it exposes us to two losses which is never good when it happens, and it often ends up being a wash if we hit two goals on the dot. So, on picks where I want to avoid either of those outcomes (could be value based or risk based), we move to a new strategy.

Gent TT Over 1.5 is a fairly useless -240, which makes sense when you consider that they’re facing a fairly bad Seraing side at home. But, tack on Gent 1H TT Over 0.5, meaning we need Gent to score one goal in the first half, and we get our odds down to a very palatable -139. The logic is simple. Gent are far better than Seraing and, if they are going to score 2+, then it’s fairly likely that one of those goals would be in the first half. In fact, it tracks how we want this bet to progress, because we’re in a bad spot if Gent DON'T score one goal in the first half.

In the event that Gent score two first half goals then great, we win. If they get one, then you could always hedge or simply wait for them to continue on track. The logic works fairly well for me, and we used it to good effect in the midweek when Antwerp hit this bet for us against Oostende at -111. Gent should handle a match against Seraing at home, and at -139 the pick holds a lot of added value for only needing two total goals.

PICK: Gent 1H Team Total Over 0.5 + Team Total Over 1.5 (-139, 1.5 units at Caesars Sportsbook)