Weekend Soccer Best Bets From Premier League And Around The World: November 5 and 6

Prospector Sam is locked and loaded with his Premier League soccer bets to deliver you more winners this weekend. But he also has a bonus play from elsewhere around the world. 

Do you like apples? WELL HOW ‘BOUT THEM APPLES??? (I’m not trusted with graphics or anything on the Dimers website, but use your imagination and pretend the UCL Group D results are here).

Now as a fan, you may be thinking that this is a pretty aggressive stance to take for a team that barely survived the easiest group in the competition. You would be right. The fact that Spurs were within 45 minutes of being eliminated from the Champions League all together despite drawing Frankfurt from Pot 1 is, to put it kindly, pretty fucking appalling. But guess what?

This is Spurs. I’ve lived my entire fandom watching them blow it in important moments and never collecting a single trophy, so I’m going to take my victories where I can get them. Sure, we’ll inevitably crash out in some spectacularly embarrassing fashion, but as of now the quad is still on and I will not apologize for enjoying the best part of my season before things inevitably go to hell.

With my unnecessary gloating out of the way, it’s time for some picks.

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Premier League Best Bets

Leeds-Bournemouth: Saturday November 5, 11:00AM ET

What an ugly Saturday lineup this is. Unless you want to bet on City-Fulham, which would require some pretty desperate gambling to find value on these City lines, the EPL doesn’t have a lot to offer today. Leicester vs. Everton sets up to be a battle of ineptitude, Wolves ruin everything they touch, and Nottingham couldn’t be doing a better job of getting relegated if they tried. Unfortunately, that leaves us with just Leeds and Bournemouth, but I think there’s some value to be had here.

In the past, Leeds have been a high-flying team who over-expose themselves and play matches filled with goals. But since Jesse Marsch entered the picture they’ve toned it down a bit, and there’s more discipline overall to how they play games. That’s crucial here, because Bournemouth are a weak side who will likely be fighting relegation, and they really only take chances when they’re gifted them (12 goals in 13 matches). If this were Leeds of 2020 I, along with everyone else, would be betting Overs, but in this match I think the Under 2.5 at +106 is the way to go.

These two have scored a combined 27 goals in 25 matches, and their best tactical advantage tends to be when teams get overly aggressive trying to beat them and leave gaps in the back. Neither side here is really strong enough to get aggressive, particularly with Bournemouth likely to use a compact system away from home, and I see this match playing more cagey. Bournemouth’s away defensive record isn't pretty, but that’s fairly skewed by their 9-0 loss at Anfield and I think they hold Leeds down enough to keep this game to few chances and fewer goals. And, as a general matter, when cold weather comes to England the scoring tends to drop off a bit, so it’s time to start looking for that angle more regularly.

PICK: Under 2.5 (+106, 1 unit at Caesars Sportsbook)

Southampton-Newcastle: Sunday November 6, 9:00AM ET

Uhh, excuse me Prospector, are you aware that Chelsea play Arsenal and Spurs play Liverpool this weekend? Could we maybe bet on those games? No, we cannot, and I will not stand for this back talk!

To be honest, I would have loved to put a bet down on either of those matches, but I have no idea what to make of Spurs-Liverpool and Chelsea are so wildly inconsistent right now I’d rather just not touch the London derby. That leaves us with a few weird matches, but there’s some value to be had here on Newcastle.

The Magpies have a bad habit of tying games they should win, but this side sits fourth with just one loss all season (at Liverpool) and it’s hard not to view them as one of the better sides in the league at this point. So, facing a Southampton unit with the worst home record in the EPL, I’m going to put my faith in Newcastle. Nothing too tricky about our plays here, since there isn't any need to be clever - TT Over 1.5 is a solid -105 which is worth a bet, and we can sprinkle on the 1H TT to add some value as well to go for a double hit. I’m reluctant to get too aggressive and go for TT Over 2.5 because the Saints haven't been horrid this year defensively, but 2 should be a comfortable number for Newcastle and I’ll stick with that as my highest value play.

PICKS: Newcastle Team Total Over 1.5 (-105, 1.5 units), Newcastle 1H Team Total Over 0.5 (+139, 0.75 units) at Caesars Sportsbook

Euro Best Bets

Viborg-Aarhus: Sunday November 6, 8:00AM ET

Last week I used my one international token on Barcelona to try to appease the casual fan, and it blew up in my face. Not this time. Today we return back to the Danish Superliga, one of my favorite gambling holes (think “fishing hole,” to be clear), where there’s some great money to be had if you know where to look (or even if you simply bother to look).

Viborg are near the top of the table in Denmark, and have the best record in the league at home. They’re benefiting from some improved performance this year coming off a disappointing campaign, which has been helped by the fact that they don't have to play in Europe. So, against a decidedly mediocre Aarhus side you would expect them to be comfortable favorites. The books see it differently.

Viborg is +114 on TT Over 1.5, and that price is simply too good to pass on. Viborg actually lost the reverse fixture back in July 3-1, but at home they should be comfortable favorites to handle business and I love them at plus money for such a low goal threshold. Aarhus have a solid defensive record which causes a bit of concern and they’ll probably try to bunker in for a 1-0 game, but Viborg are too good to be held off and their form in the last couple of weeks in successive away wins is enough to make me confident.

PICK: Viborg Team Total Over 1.5 (+114, 1.75 units at Caesars Sportsbook)