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European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Dec 18-20, 2021
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's European soccer action.
As I sat down to write this, I figured that I was going to spend my intro mocking UEFA for the Round of 16 Draw debacle. Sure, everyone and their brother already had, but there’s just too much damn humor in it not too. Unfortunately, it’s hard to parody a parody, and we’re getting close to the point where you can just say “UEFA” and everyone will break out laughing like I’ve told one of my best zingers. Less is more, some days, and I’m not giving you much of an interesting intro by writing more about them.
But, I would be remiss if I didn’t take a bit of time to acknowledge the true loser in all this - the balls. Yes, you read that right, I’m going to take some time to appreciate and console poor balls who took the brunt of this mistake directly (and nothing hurts more than a shot to the balls). Despite all the randomization technology and programming expertise we have in 2021, somehow the system of “sticking a bunch of spheres into a plastic container and choosing from that” hasn’t yet died. The lottery still uses them, because we can’t afford to risk hundreds of millions of Powerball dollars on a computer error, and UEFA has steadfastly held onto the pageantry involved with throwing up quasi-celebrities and attractive women to select matchups like nothing else could possibly replace it.
And I, for one, appreciate the use of an archaic approach that’s become completely unnecessary. Just like nobody wants their job lost to automation, these little balls have nothing else left if they lose this role, and there is no plastic ball retirement home (well, there is, it’s called a landfill). So let’s take a moment to appreciate them and focus on the real villain here - UEFA, who can’t even figure out how to correctly organize a simple 16 team draw correctly. Don’t blame the messenger, so they say, and we need to make sure that we focus our anger and jokes at the right party here.
Enough of my stupidity for one day? Yeah, probably. Time to move on to what you all came for ⤵️
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Free Swiss Super League Picks For Week 18, 2021-22
Zurich vs. St. Gallen, Sat Dec 18, 12:00pm (ET)
I’m not going to say I’m at a loss for words, because I very rarely can’t find something to say, but this line is perplexing to put it mildly. I’ve ranted and raved on here before about how Zurich is a good team that’s over performing a bit but deserves respect considering they sit atop the Super League table and have a knack for beating up on bottom half teams, but for some reason nobody seems to be listening.
And, once again, we have a money line that doesn’t match up with reality at all. Zurich are at home, facing one of the bottom 3 teams in the league who sport a -15 GD and pick up less than a point per game, but are just -120 on the money line? Setting aside matchups and talent, that doesn’t make one damn lick of sense (speaking of, what a weird phrase.
Did people once lick things to determine their intelligence?) and I’ll take those odds in pretty much any league you give me from the Premier League all the way down to your local U9 church league where moms are bringing orange wedges at half time (shout out moms, those oranges were awesome). So, let’s go back to our friends in Zurich and take them at -120 to handle their business at St. Gallen. I don’t really see how you can do anything else.
⛏️ PICK: Zurich moneyline (-120)
Free Serie A Picks For Week 18, 2021-22
Fiorentina vs. Sassoulo, Sun Dec 19, 6:30am (ET)
Time to evolve. I do my best to work on new ideas and tactics to improve myself and help make you money, and today we’re going to break out like a butterfly and spread our wings to new heights (sorry, Hallmark asked me to ghost write some Christmas cards this year and I haven’t quite shaken off the corniness). This game projects to be high scoring, and I agree with that perception, but the value on the totals is a bit tricky to work with.
Over 2.5 isn’t extremely useful but a bit safer at -160, while over 3.5 is obviously riskier but more lucrative at +160. So, rather than talk myself into one, I’m going to be a greedy SoB and just go with both of them. And I think that’s the right play here, so let me explain why. These teams have scored a combined 59 goals in their 17 matches, which puts us close to the 4 goal number on average, and both are less than stellar on the defensive end of the pitch. Recent form also pushes us in the direction of a high scoring game, since 5 of Sassuolo’s last 6 have gone for 4 goals while 4 of Fiorentina’s last 5 have.
That said, 4 is still a fairly high water mark in soccer and we don’t want to put all of our eggs in that basket and walk away with nothing. So, we bet both the over 2.5 and over 3.5, which gives us protection if we only reach the 3 goal target but gives us a double win if we get to 4+ (and yes, we also risk two losses if it goes under, but be aware of that and don’t go betting more than you’re comfortable with losing. It’s still gambling after all).
This isn’t a traditional approach and it’s not oneI necessarily would use frequently, but it helps balance the risk vs. reward on the total with a high upside that I think is worth the potential loss.
⛏️ PICKS: Total goals OVER 2.5 (-160), Total goals OVER 3.5 (+160)
Free Eredivisie Picks For Week 17, 2021-22
Ajax vs. Feyenoord, Sun Dec 19, 8:30am (ET)
This is one of those lines where you sort of don’t have a choice but to take it. Kind of like when you see Bayern at anything close to even money these days, a ML for Ajax below -200 in the Eredivisie is a bit of a no-brainer based on talent and performance alone.
Sure, Ajax have had their hiccups and just dropped a match to AZ last weekend, but this team is cruising along in the League and their dropped points tend to come after midweek fixtures where they have less rest. Here that won’t be an issue, and the body of work for Ajax is pretty jaw dropping; they won their UCL group outright, and sport a +45 GD through 16 games in the Eredivisie. Yes, you read that right, +45.
So, while they’re facing a Feyenoord side tied with them on points and who haven’t lost a game since early October, I just can’t bet against the gap in pure talent and class between Ajax and pretty much everyone they face in the Netherlands. At -140, I’ll gladly take a shot at them to handle this match and build some comfortable bankroll.
⛏️ PICK: Ajax moneyline (-140)
Free La Liga Picks For Week 18, 2021-22
Levante vs. Valencia, Mon Dec 20, 3:00pm (ET)
Fading Levante has been a fairly lucrative endeavour this season. They’ve picked up just 8 points through 17 games without a single win, and sit dead last in the table. Their opposition, Valencia, aren’t challenging for the title (or even close to it) but sit right in their comfort zone as they fight for European places with middling clubs like Sociedad and Barcelona.
Wait, Barcelona? Yes, the Catalans sit in 8th as they continue to implode but that’s neither here nor there for this bet (I just wanted to laugh at them). The Yellow Submarine are a solid side riding a two game win streak in La Liga, and they’re facing by far the worst team in the division, which should mean odds close to Even for a road match in my humble opinion.
Instead, the books have them at +165, which feels way too high for this matchup and the relative gap in performance over the course of the season. Both clubs have Copa del Rey fixtures in the midweek which may cause a few sets of heavy legs (though squad rotation probably will be high), but Valencia is the better team here and I’ll gladly take any top half team at positive money against a Levante side that couldn’t play their way out of a paper bag right now. Take the visitors for a high value payout.
⛏️ PICK: Valencia moneyline (+165)
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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