European Soccer 2021/22 Picks and Predictions Week Ending April 24

I am, quite shockingly, at a loss for words this week. Maybe it’s the overload of soccer + work + real life going on for me, but I sat down to write this article and not a single thing popped into my head for the intro. And, as someone with no writing background or actual education in the area, that’s bad news.

I pretty much write where my brain takes me, and when my brain is low on creativity things can get ugly. So, rather than giving you two paragraphs about my feelings on the clock I’m staring at right now and how I wish it would skip ahead a couple days to the weekend, let’s just get right to the good stuff.

It’s gamblin' time.

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🇫🇷 St Etienne vs. Monaco: Saturday April 23, 1:00PM EST

I’m not exactly sure why, but most of the games this weekend are being played on Sunday, which leaves us with a bit of a thin slate for Saturday picks. Rather than leave you all out to dry, though, I scoured the boards until I found a number I really liked so that we wouldn’t have to go a day without making some money. And, as an added bonus, the logic is pretty damn simple. Monaco are running hot at the moment, having won their last 5 League matches, and are facing a St. Etienne side with the second worst defensive record in France. I waffled back and forth a bit on whether to go with the ML or Over 1.5 goals for Monaco, which have almost identical payouts, and at the end of the day I settled on the latter because of the previously mentioned defensive record. St. Etienne haven’t been all that bad lately, and have scored at least one goal in each of their last 5 matches, so giving up the 1-0 win for Monaco (which is the only way we could lose our bet but Monaco could win) seems like a fair trade for all the other potentially valuable “winning” scorelines for Monaco over 1.5. I will greatly regret this write up if the visitors do take home a 1-0 victory, but I’m nothing if not honest about my thought process. Monaco TT Over 1.5 at -122 is solid money based on their form, and I’ll gladly take that angle for a game they need to win.

⛏️ PICK: Monaco Team Total OVER 1.5 (-122)

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🇮🇹 Salernitana vs. Fiorentina: Sunday April 24, 6:30 AM EST

I try my best to watch as much soccer as humanly possible while also juggling a real life. If I’m going to give out picks and act like an “expert,” I need to get my eyeballs on as many games as I can to be an informed gambler, and I make a point to watch the games I bet on whenever humanly possible. So, when a 6:30 Sunday game pops up I am VERY RELUCTANT to gamble on it because those precious hours of sleep aren’t ones I want to give up. But I go where the board takes me, and I love the team total on Fiorentina here. Over 1.5 isn’t incredibly lucrative at -150, but Salernitana give up well over 2 goals per game and Fiorentina have the talent to expose them on that end. While the Viola’s consistency has been a massive issue this season, they’re still in position to play European matches next year and I expect they come out firing from the whistle to try to take 3 points from a side with little hope of surviving the drop. Unless Salernitana can hold them goalless into the second half this should be an easy cover, and nothing about the home side’s defensive record gives me confidence that they will. Use this one as a comfortable bankroll builder that should be sitting closer to -200.

⛏️ PICK: Fiorentina Team Total OVER 1.5 (-150)

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🇨🇭 Basel-Luzern: Sunday April 24, 10:30 AM EST

I don’t know what to make of this one really. And no, I don’t mean the bet itself, because that would be stupid. I mean the line, which is absolutely preposterous. When you see -140 for a spread you probably don’t think too much of it, because that number reflects a fairly low risk bet (at least for the psychotic parlays you people like), but here the number is insanely generous. Basel are a top 3 team in Switzerland and, while their recent league form hasn’t been great, they’re still far better then a Luzern side sitting in the relegation spots. Basel have won this matchup outright 4 of the last 5 times they’ve played including a 3-0 win AT LUZERN in January, and Basel’s goal difference through 30 games is 46 better than their opponent’s here. So, while -140 doesn’t look all that shocking, it really is for this match and it’s my favorite bet of the article. Remember, we’re looking for value in gambling, not the highest payout, and this has some of the best value I’ve seen in a while.

⛏️ PICK: Basel at the moneyline (-140)

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🇧🇪 Union SG-Anderlecht: Sunday April 24, 12:30 PM EST

If you want a crazy brain teaser, go look up the Jupiler League’s two phase schedule and try to figure out what the hell is going on. Basically, they play most of the season normally then break teams into three different groups where point totals are altered and start playing all of the teams in their section repeatedly. That’s a very simplistic rundown, but just be aware that we’ve reached “phase 2” and our Jupiler League betting is going to get a bit different because of it. Here, we have two of the Top 4 teams battling it out, and I think we get an exciting 90 minutes. Not only has the Jupiler League had a week off, meaning both teams will be well rested, but these teams both average over 2 goals scored per match and they win with offensive prowess. Sure, USG are a bit tougher to break down, but I think Anderlecht are the only team genuinely competitive with them and the home side have conceded at least one in each of their last 4 matches played (with a forfeited match thrown in to Beerschot. Shout out Beerschot for finding impressive new ways to suck). -126 is actually a pretty good number for over 2.5 in Belgium, where goals are like acorns under an oak tree (aka everywhere), and I think fireworks are almost a given here.

⛏️ PICK: Over 2.5 Total Goals (-126)

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