Betting Guide for Game 4 of Warriors vs. Mavericks in the 2022 NBA Western Conference Finals

Game 4 of the 2022 NBA Western Conference Finals are Tuesday night with the Golden State Warriors looking to complete a sweep of the Dallas Mavericks and secure the organization's 11th trip to the NBA Finals and 6th under head coach Steve Kerr.

Game 4: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks

NBA Western Conference Finals

Tuesday May 24 2022, 9PM

The Golden State Warriors have had their way with the Dallas Mavericks through the first three games of the NBA Western Conference Finals, and Tuesday night is do-or-die for Dallas, hosting Game 4 down in the series 3 games to none.

Dimers.com NBA expert John Lopez breaks it down from there.

This preview of Game 4 of the Warriors-Mavericks series is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Compare all the sportsbooks' NBA odds to make sure you get the most out of your bets.

Why the favorite Mavericks will cover

It is no secret that the Dallas Mavericks (-1.5) shoot a lot of threes. In fact, their 3-point frequency is 47.4%, highest of any team in these playoffs. Game 3 was no different with Dallas shooting 45 three pointers, 13 more than the Warriors.

Of those 45 attempts, 43 came without a defender within 4 feet of the shooter. In fact, Dallas only hit 8 of their wide open 28 attempts (no defender within 6 feet). Outside of the big 3 of Doncic, Brunson, and Dinwiddie, the rest of the Mavs combined for a total of 14 points on 5 of 28 shooting.

Expect the Mavs to shoot closer to their playoff average of 38% from 3-point range, than 28%, which included Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber going a combined 0 for 12 from beyond the arc last game.  

Not all 3’s/shooters are created equal.

3PT Shot Making looks at shooting % above expectations based on quality (distance, pull-up v C&S, quality of defender, etc)

High=Great 3PT Shot Making
Low=Bad 3PT Shot Making
Left=Heavily Contested
Right=Wide Open

WHAT STANDS OUT? pic.twitter.com/Oc9FmFvNpX

— NBA University (@NBA_University) May 22, 2022

Why the underdog Warriors will cover the spread

This series, the Golden State Warriors (+1.5) have outrebounded the Mavericks by 16, 13, and 14.  They’ve beaten them in assists by 10, 11, and 10, and they’ve demolished them in the paint, outscoring them inside by 12, 32, and 12.

That’s nothing new for the Mavs, as they were outrebounded, outassisted, and outscored in the paint against Phoenix in Round 2.   

However, they were able to overcome those deficiencies by hitting 3’s and playing stellar defense, two things they are not doing this series. Both of those shortcomings can be chalked up to fatigue.

Dallas has four players that are averaging more than 35 minutes per game, including Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith, who are first and third in minutes played, and first and second in miles run this Playoff season.

Looking at hustle stats in the Conference Finals so far, Dallas is last in deflections, loose balls recovered, and contested 3-point shots.

Add those to them getting beat 18-4 in second chance points, and allowing Golden State to shoot 21-28 in the restricted area, it looks like Dallas’s run is coming to an end. 

DimersBOT Prediction: Mavericks to cover +1.5 (53%)

Why Warriors vs. Mavericks will go Over the 215.5 total points line

The Warriors are the highest scoring team in the playoffs a t114.5 points per game, while Dallas is No. 1 in 3 pointers made with 15.4. While both teams hit the unders on these in Game 3, we should expect a bounceback in Game 4. Both teams combined for 52 missed open or wide open 3s, and still totaled 209 points. Add in the fact that Game 3’s pace was 5 points slower than the first two games, and Game 4 is looking more like a shootout than a defensive struggle. 

Why Warriors vs. Mavericks will stay Under the 215.5 total points line

Dallas was last in the league in pace during the regular season. Prior to this series, they were in the bottom three in the playoffs. If they are going to win Game 4, they need to slow things down. Dallas is at their best when they take their time, limit their turnovers, and take good shots. An additional effect of slowing the game down is it limits the number of shots your opponent can take, which also helps your defense down the stretch as they are defending less offensive sets. In Dallas wins this playoffs opponents averaged a lackluster 95.8 points per game. Dallas will go back to what has worked for them, which means less possessions, and less points, for both teams.

DimersBOT Prediction: Over (51% probability)

The X-Factor: Reggie Bullock, Mavericks Forward

In Game 3, Reggie Bullock (pictured) played 40 minutes, missed all 10 shots he took, including seven 3 pointers, and one free throw, and still only had a -5 plus/minus for the game. It’s easy to see his impact goes beyond scoring, but at the end of the day, Dallas needs him to hit shots. 

This playoffs, he’s 12th in 3-pointers attempted per game, including third most in the Conference Finals. In playoff wins this season, Bullock is averaging 11.3 points and 3.2 threes per game, both of which are higher than the current prop lines of 10.5 and 2.5.

So if Dallas is going to fight for their playoff lives in Game 4, the winner of the 2022 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Social Justice Award is going to play a large part.

🏀 Projected Warriors vs. Mavericks Game 4 box score
✍️ Betting Preview: Warriors vs. Mavericks Game 4