What MLB Bettors Should Think About at the Midpoint of the 2022 Baseball Season

Historically, July 4th was deemed the “midpoint” of Major League Baseball’s season whether teams had played precisely 81 games (or 77 games in the days of 154) or not. It was the barometer — and part of a myth — that the teams in first place on Independence Day would inevitably meet in the World Series. 

In 2022, most teams are either at or within one game of the direct midpoint. That makes it a reasonable time to assess the current landscape, what bettors might want to look for and how to accrue value for the second half of the MLB season and also the postseason and World Series.

Dimers.com contributor Paul Lebowitz examines what to look for down the stretch.

Can any Team Challenge the Yankees and Astros?

Objectively, no team in the AL East or AL West will catch the Yankees or Astros. Both have double-digit leads and are not phantom contenders. 

The Astros’ division mates are mediocre at best. Their starting pitching is deep, led by Justin Verlander, possibly heading for his third Cy Young Award; the bullpen is excellent; the offense can hit, hit with power and run; they play excellent defense; they are fundamentally sound in all aspects; and manager Dusty Baker is steering them skillfully.

The Yankees’ main concern prior to the season was their starting pitching and they’re jockeying with the Astros for the second best starting pitcher ERA in baseball behind the Dodgers. They’re hitting with classic Yankees power and despite claims that they have benefited from a weak schedule, every time they play a top-tier club like the Astros or Guardians, they either hold serve or assert their dominance. 

Year of the Dawg. pic.twitter.com/poN07grt1s

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) June 26, 2022

They do have specific issues that must be addressed including what to do with underperforming veterans Joey Gallo and Josh Donaldson, but given general manager Brian Cashman’s history, Gallo may not be a Yankee after the trade deadline; Matt Carpenter’s power display and the team’s infield depth could limit Donaldson’s playing time. 

Those indulging in the fantasy of a 1978 role reversal in which the Red Sox blew a 14.5 game lead and lost the division in the Bucky Dent one-game playoff will be disappointed. Those Yankees were infighting and lagging. It took Billy Martin’s resignation and the calm of Bob Lemon – along with the season-long brilliance of Ron Guidry and the August rejuvenation of Catfish Hunter – to help them catch the Red Sox.

In 1978 Bucky Dent hit one of the biggest home runs in Yankee history. pic.twitter.com/Phs4ADX9Mp

— Miles Commodore (@miles_commodore) June 29, 2022

Do the current Red Sox have the same latent roster the 1978 Yankees did? Even if Chris Sale returns at near full strength, he cannot be counted on to be the horse he was in the past. They also have glaring needs in the bullpen and three of their five starters – Nate Eovaldi, Garrett Whitlock and Rich Hill – are on the injured list. 

Sure, some team could pick off the Yankees or Astros, but who? 

The Blue Jays are an under the radar bet, but right now, the Yankees-Astros ALCS clash appears inevitable.

Is there any Reason to Think the Dodgers won't Win the NL?

The Dodgers have reached “automatic” status in expecting them to be an annual postseason participant and a viable World Series threat. Despite injuries to Mookie Betts, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Max Muncy, there they sit in first place in perhaps baseball’s most top-heavy division, still ahead of the Padres and Giants.

Regardless, there are problems that could derail them unless they are aggressive – as they usually are – at the trade deadline. 

Trayce Thompson - Los Angeles Dodgers (2) pic.twitter.com/5fC2qKHFPr

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) July 5, 2022

Justin Turner is showing his age and appears negatively impacted by the deader ball.

Freddie Freeman is having another MVP-caliber season, but the ongoing drama with him firing his agents after he left the Braves in a blatantly unhappy parting of the ways is serving as a distraction, so much so that Kershaw sent a public message to the team’s new first baseman trying to make certain that he understands that he’s a Dodger and no longer a Brave; that maybe it’s time to move on.

Freddie Freeman is not happy in LA and you'll never convince me otherwise. pic.twitter.com/M6HYMiRH2V

— PreacherMan 🏆🏆 (@preacherman_116) June 27, 2022

Even with Cody Bellinger’s numbers getting shaky, closer Craig Kimbrel’s unreliability and the season-ending injury to Daniel Hudson, any talk of the Dodgers’ downfall is premature and probably wrong, at least until the playoffs. 

Suffice it to say president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his staff will fill needs.

Which Contenders Might be Surprisingly Aggressive?

The Phillies in the NL and the White Sox in the AL are two clubs that have all the earmarks of surprise buyers.

For the Phillies, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski does not hesitate. If he thinks his team can win, he goes for it. Even with their season-long inconsistency and horrible defense, they’re still hovering between 30% and 40% at making the playoffs according to projection systems and betting sites. 

A one-in-three shot is reason enough to try and improve. Since defense has been a bugaboo, they can shore up their outfield defense with, for example, Michael A. Taylor from the Royals. Dombrowski will always want to boost his bullpen. Logically, if they did manage to squeak into the playoffs with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola fronting the rotation and Bryce Harper and Jean Segura returning from injury, they could be a threat. 

MLB top 2 lowest HardHit% per team.

— LA Dodgers 32.4%
— Philadelphia Phillies 35.6%
Wow 😮 #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/gTA8nS303x

— PhillieSavant (@MuseBryce) July 5, 2022

The White Sox, with all their woes, have hovered within 5 games of first place in the AL Central. Neither the Twins nor the Guardians have taken control of the division and have challenges of their own. 

Since they’re already all-in with Tony La Russa (who is not getting fired) and have starting pitching, they could make a move for an outfield power bat — perhaps Andrew Benintendi or Charlie Blackmon and some bullpen help from the likes of Daniel Bard and try to win the division.