NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 8 - Tua Tagovailoa Returns, DeAndre Hopkins Traded to Chiefs

We're rapidly approaching the midpoint of the NFL season and this year is flying by.

In the midst of the NFL trade deadline, we're seeing teams make moves to improve their rosters while some are shaking things up internally.

Every week shapes the next in this league and we're looking to keep an edge up on the books and in our fantasy leagues with the power of Dimers Pro each and every week in the NFL.

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Without further ado, let's dig into Week 8 of the NFL.  

Russell Wilson is Head Chef Again

The Steelers made a bit of a stunning move before Week 7 when they announced Russell Wilson would make his first start of the season over Justin Fields who had been under center as the team started 4-2.

Given Russell Wilson's lackluster two-year tenure in Denver, many were surprised to hear that Head Coach Mike Tomlin would pivot from a formula that's won them 4 games, but the results speak for themselves.

The Steelers turned in their best offensive performance of the year, scoring the most they have yet in 2024 with 37 points as Wilson accounted for three total TDs, one on the ground and two passing, and zero interceptions. He breathed new life into George Pickens who caught 5 balls for 11 yards and a score. We identified both of them as TD scorers in last week's article.

So what's next? The Steelers get a 75% win probability vs. the Giants on Monday Night Football, the highest they've gotten from our model all year, while Pickens and Najee Harris get their highest TD probabilities of the season, both over 40%.

The 5-2 tie atop the AFC North has become very interesting, with the Ravens looking like a powerhouse but the Steelers finding a spark with Wilson at QB. At a 23.8% probability and +450 odds at FanDuel to win the division, the Steelers are a clear value play with our fair odds at just +320.

🏈 New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Full Betting Preview

Second Half Outlook for The Dawg Pound 

Didn't think we'd see the Browns in here at all this season, with the exception of Nick Chubb's return that we featured last week, but there's been a bunch of shakeup in Cleveland since one week ago, as they've traded their WR1, lost their QB and welcomed back their RB1.

The biggest news of course, is Deshaun Watson going down with an Achilles injury and now done for the season. It's not a big loss for Cleveland - Watson has been ineffective and injured dating back to last season and the Browns offense has no momentum. This is right after they jettisoned Amari Cooper to Buffalo, leaving a void of WR talent as well.

Enter Jameis Winston, known hero ball extraordinaire who could spur some fantasy football relevance out of this patchwork passing game.

The biggest beneficiaries would be Jerry Jeudy (28.6% TD probability) and David Njoku (24.0% TD probability), both of whom possess big-play potential that is more likely to be unlocked via Jameis Winston's cannon.

As far as the game result, our model projects a 52% probability of the Browns to cover the 9.5-point spread vs. the Ravens on Sunday.

🏈 Week 8 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Chiefs Drop a Trade Deadline Nuk'

After watching Patrick Mahomes throw for just 154 yards and another 2 interceptions, no player eclipse 22 receiving yards behind TE2 Noah Gray's 66, and once again fail to utilize rookie WR Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs had seen enough.

They broke the early-morning NFL news cycle on Wednesday with a trade bomb, acquiring DeAndre "Nuk" Hopkins from the Titans for a conditional 5th-round pick in hopes of juicing up this offense.

Somehow, this team is 6-0 - they've not looked very good but it doesn't matter. Even in his bad games, Patrick Mahomes navigates this offense to a win. But it's not sustainable, hence the trade for Hopkins.

With the trade happening early enough in the week, Hopkins will likely suit up on Sunday as long as everything checks out. 

Here's how the offense projects for Week 8 vs. Las Vegas, with an updated to come once our weekly simulations update to reflect his addition to the roster. 

Be sure to check back!

With the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, the most notable changes are to Kareem Hunt's TD probabilities which take a slight dip, and a small hit to Travis Kelce's overall projections across the board. This makes sense as Kelce and Hopkins both thrive in the middle of the field, so Hopkins is more likely to eat into Kelce's workload than siphon outside targets away form Xavier Worthy.

Stars Set to Return from Injury

Several notable players are poised to return from injuries in Week 8, including Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, Rams WR Cooper Kupp and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor.

Here's how things look for these players according the DimersBOT's Week 8 predictions:

Tua Tagovailoa

The most notable of returning players, Tua Tagovailoa has been on injured reserve since sustaining a concussion in Week 2. The Dolphins offense has been neutered in his absence, with Tyreek Hill plummeting to near-irrelevance, bottoming out with one catch for 8 yards on 2 targets last week.

Hill will see the biggest boon from Tua's return, with our model giving him a 46.7% anytime TD probability, 10.7% First TD probability and a 91-receiving yard projection. If you've got Hill in fantasy leagues, the long night is over.

Check out our Dolphins-Cardinals previewfor the full projections.

Cooper Kupp

Another one who's been sidelined since Week 2, Kupp appears ready to return to action, though he could be on the trading block. His Week 8 game is on Thursday Night Football vs. the Vikings, so we'll learn more based on whether or not he plays.

Our model projects Kupp to resume his production, drawing a 35.6% TD probability and a 69-yard receiving projection. The Vikings defense is strong but this Rams squad has been starving for a No. 1 passing game option and Kupp is here to save the day.

Jonathan Taylor

Out since Week 5, Jonathan Taylor will practice on Wednesday, opening the door for his Week 8 return vs. the Texans in a game with big divisional implications. 

In his absence. both Tyler Goodson and Trey Sermon filled in with varying degrees of effectiveness, each finding their way in for a score in that time, but this looks like the first time in a month that the Colts will have their top 2 WRs, QB1 and RB1 all healthy.

Taylor draws a chunky 51.1% TD probability, making our fair odds -105 for an anytime TD, and we project him to rumble for 79 yards on the ground and pick up 15 receiving yards as well.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 8 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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