MLS Betting Picks and Strategy for Saturday June 18, 2022

After three weeks with just a smattering of games, Major League Soccer returns in earnest this weekend with a full slate of matches.

Dimers.com soccer expert and veteran handicapper Robert Williams gives you all the best bets for this week's action. 

The early-summer break was scheduled due to all the international matches taking place as nations gear up for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar this fall.

Each week leading up to the MLS Cup final in November, Dimers will break down the best matches and best bets of the week.

We will also examine at least one soccer handicapping strategy to help players get ready for what should be an eventful six months with plenty of money-making opportunities on the pitch. 

For full betting previews of every MLS match this weekend, visit Dimers' MLS Betting section.

MLS Betting Picks

Saturday, 9AM ET: Seattle Sounders vs. LAFC

Match of the Week

LAFC has jumped out to a league-best 9-3-2 record behind Carlos Vela (6 goals, 2 assists) and company, but a trip to Lumen Field in Seattle will be a tough test. The Sounders are coming off a 4-0 drubbing of Vancouver on Tuesday night.

Tick-tock, Carlos Vela’s contract with #LAFC runs out at the end of the month. So what’s going on? https://t.co/V2HP3vphVs

— Angels On Parade (@Angels_Parade) June 15, 2022

Having a post-break match under its belt should benefit the home side. The Sounders have surrendered only three goals in their last five matches. LAFC will test that stout defense as the road team has incredible balance. Thirteen different players have scored for LAFC in its 14 matches. Seattle’s depth was on display against Vancouver. The Sounders played one of their best matches of the year despite missing five players to international duty.  

PICK: Sounders (+125) at home

⚽️ Predictions: Seattle Sounders vs. LAFC
⚽️ Full betting preview: Seattle Sounders vs. LAFC

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Saturday, 1:30PM ET: Montreal vs. Austin FC

Best Bet

Montreal has been one of the most pleasant surprises of MLS. After struggling to score and finishing 10th in the East last year, Montreal (7-2-5) sits in third place this season and has 28 goals in 14 matches. But the reality is that it has had a very favorable schedule and has yet to defeat a contending club (all Montreal’s wins have come against teams that are +1800 or longer in the MLS futures market).  

2022 🇺🇸 Major League Soccer xG Difference Leaders

NYCFC (12.4)
Los Angeles FC (9.9)
Philadelphia (7.2)
Colorado Rapids (5.9)
FC Dallas (5.6)
NY Red Bulls (4.8)
CF Montréal (4.5)
LA Galaxy (3.9)
Nashville (3.7)https://t.co/d9Eb6c0X6J

— ⚽ FBref ⚽ (@fbref) June 14, 2022

Austin has been playing some solid soccer with little fanfare. It is fourth in the West at 7-4-3 and has shown the ability to compete with the best in the league, including a win at LAFC.  

PICK: This game is a toss-up, so there is value in taking Austin double chance for a few units and throwing a one-unit play on Austin to win outright at +260. 

⚽️ Predictions: Montreal vs. Austin FC
⚽️ Full Betting Preview: Montreal vs. Austin FC

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Saturday, 3:30PM ET: San Jose Earthquakes vs. Real Salt Lake

San Jose likes to push the tempo and has some firepower. Also, consider that Real Salt Lake figures to have the lead in this match. If that happens, San Jose will be pushing the entire second half and should have no difficulty out-cornering its foe.  

PICK: San Jose more corner kicks than Real Salt Lake (-110)

⚽️ Predictions: Real Salt Lake vs. San Jose Earthquakes
⚽️ Full Betting Preview: Real Salt Lake vs. San Jose Earthquakes

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Best Goal Scorer Prop

I also like Jesus Ferreira to score (+115) in FC Dallas’ home match against Vancouver (Saturday, 3PM ET). Ferreira already has 9 goals and faces a Vancouver team that gives up goals in bunches. 

⚽️ Predictions: FC Dallas vs. Vancouver Whitecaps
⚽️ Full Betting Preview: FC Dallas vs. Vancouver Whitecaps

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Soccer Betting Strategy of the Week 

One critical element of all sports handicapping is looking at teams’ schedules in the weeks leading up to a match. But it can be difficult to analyze current form when teams are coming off a long break – such as the one MLS clubs have faced during the international break.  

Yes, clubs have practiced and scrimmaged and a few have even played a match over the last three weeks. But with many star players off serving their countries on the pitch, these practices and matches have been with reduced rosters.  

In many cases, it takes clubs a few games to get their timing and mid-season form back. For this reason, UNDERS generally have great value for the first two matches after teams return to action. This is true for all top-tier leagues around the world – not just MLS – as they all face prolonged international breaks every five to eight weeks in the season.  

This week I recommend the following two UNDERS on Saturday: 

PICKS: Portland at LA Galaxy UNDER 3 (-110) and Houston at Orlando City UNDER 2.5 (+100).

When Portland and LA Galaxy last met in April, the final score was 3-1, but the score was inflated by an own goal and two red cards. Neither team has played since late-May and Portland is very solid defensively, so the rematch should be low scoring.

⚽️ Predictions: LA Galaxy vs. Portland Timbers
⚽️ Full Betting Preview: LA Galaxy vs. Portland Timbers

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Houston and Orlando City both struggle to score. Houston was shut out in three of its five matches in May. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in shots and goals. Add what is sure to be some rust, and this has the makings of a low-scoring affair

⚽️ Predictions: Orlando City vs. Houston Dynamo
⚽️ Full Betting Preview: Orlando City vs. Houston Dynamo

Enjoy the soccer this weekend. And remember, when performing your due diligence as a successful handicapper, always take breaks into consideration when making your bets. 

Robert Williams has been a sportswriter and handicapper in New England and Las Vegas for 25 years. He has covered horse racing, football and baseball, but soccer became his first love after the 2002 World Cup. Tweet your comments, questions, best bets and sports betting anecdotes @vegasdimer.

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