MLS Betting Picks and Strategy for July 8-10, 2022

The best derby in Major League Soccer, and perhaps the best named, returns on Friday night when LAFC entertains the LA Galaxy in El Trafico at 10 p.m. ET. 

Soccer has given us some great names over the decades. Names of clubs such as Chicken Inn FC of Zimbabwe and FL Fart of Norway; names of players like Danny Invincibile of Australia and Fabian Assmann of Argentina; names of local rivalries, also known as derbies. 

Anyone who has driven in the City of Angels understands the joking nature of the name of the El Trafico rivalry. But once these talented teams get on the pitch, fans will see some serious soccer. In the name of making money, let’s examine El Trafico and several other best bets from this weekend’s MLS slate.

Dimers.com soccer expert and veteran handicapper Robert Williams gives you all the best bets for this week's action.

Game of the Week

LA Galaxy at LAFC, Friday, 10 p.m. ET

The most explosive rivalry in MLS got even hotter when LAFC inked aging Italian star Giorgio Chiellini and Welsh standout Gareth Bale and re-signed Carlos Vela in recent weeks. Following the moves, LAFC dropped as low as +300 at some books to win the MLS Cup, although it remains as high as +430 at one book so shop around.  

.El Tráfico turns longtime friends into bitter rivals - if only for 90 minutes. @LAFC, ⁦@LAGalaxy⁩ https://t.co/OnCNbLh8RY

— Kevin Baxter (@kbaxter11) July 8, 2022

LAFC, first in the West with 36 points and a goal-differential of +16, is plenty motivated for this one. It fell, 2-1, when these teams met in April after offsides calls nullified three goals – including one in the closing moments – and another shot hit the post. 

LAFC was literally inches away from a win. The Galaxy (27 points, 4th West) have 11 goals in their last four matches, so this could be another shootout. Chiellini is expected to play in this one after training with LAFC all week. Bale is unlikely to play as international transfer and visa paperwork have kept him from training with the team.

Ultimately, LAFC is the superior club no matter which new players are involved. 

PICK: While anything can happen in this derby, I see tremendous value in LAFC (-115). 

⚽︎ Prediction for LA Galaxy vs. LAFC

Best Bet

Seattle (-120) over Portland, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. (ET)

Portland rallied from two goals down to tie Nashville last week, but the Timbers haven’t won a road match in two months. The Seattle Sounders improved to 4-1-1 in their last six matches with a 2-0 victory at Toronto last week. 

having GW quoted in articles because he's still employed with pdx is really something else https://t.co/8reukOCxnL

— Coop ✌️ (@TheTallestCoop) July 7, 2022

Portland has surrendered 29 goals this year. Only San Jose and Sporting KC have given up more in the West. Seattle, meanwhile, has four clean sheets in its last eight matches. 

PICK: Look for Portland to fall further in the standings, while Seattle – which is only three points out of third place – continues to climb. 

⚽️ Predictions: Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders

Best Prop Bet

Inter Miami to have more corner kicks than Orlando City (line TBA)

Inter Miami had more corners than its opponent in three of the last four matches. Orlando has been giving up scoring chances in bunches recently. Orlando figures to have the lead in this match, which means the visitors will be pressing and could approach double digits in corners. Take Inter Miami in the corner match bet.

⚽️ Predictions: Inter Miami vs. Orlando City

Soccer Betting Strategy of the Week

Inspect hot and cold streaks

One of the most profitable plays in soccer is betting against a team with deficiencies hidden by good recent form. The key is to analyze the recent form and decipher if a team is playing well or if positive outcomes are the result of an advantageous schedule or other factors.

Try to find mediocre teams that have gone three or four games without a loss. The public tends to overrate these clubs based on recent form.  Once you find a team in this scenario, go back and watch condensed replays of the three previous games. 

• Were the outcomes the result of solid play? 

• Was the team outplayed but got lucky? 

• Were the opponents playing uninspired soccer? 

• Was the winning team the beneficiary of VAR, PKs or red cards? 

If you don’t have time to watch the replays (let’s face it, it’s not easy to find the time), I recommend getting the box scores and analyzing key stats such as shots, shots on goal, corners, possession, crosses, and cards. 

Every so often you will find a team that really hasn’t been playing well but has been winning anyway.

This week’s MLS card gives us a team in that situation, an ideal squad to bet against while getting plus-money – the Vancouver Whitecaps. 

The Whitecaps have gone three consecutive games without a loss and haven’t surrendered a goal in that stretch. They defeated LAFC last week, blanked Dallas three weeks ago, and played New England to a scoreless draw in between. 

Pretty impressive stretch, right? Not really. 

Let’s take a closer look. Dallas dominated the match with a 16-4 advantage in shots and 33-5 edge in crosses. Dallas was also clearly looking ahead to its in-state rivalry match against Austin the following week. 

Last week, Vancouver beat an LAFC squad looking ahead to El Trafico. It was the perfect time to play LAFC as the club and the city was still buzzing over recent signings of Bale and Chiellini and championship talk and predictions intensified. It was a relatively uneventful match until a sloppy LAFC turnover just outside the 18-yard box led to a late Vancouver goal.  

Now we have Vancouver (+120) back at home and favored over superior Minnesota United (+190) on Friday at 10:30 p.m. Eastern. Minnesota is coming off consecutive wins over the Galaxy and Real Salt Lake in which it scored three goals both times out. And thanks to Vancouver’s recent form, we get Minnesota at a great price. 

The play is Minnesota draw no bet (+120) for four units and Minnesota to win outright (+190) for two units.

⚽️ Predictions: Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Minnesota United

Robert Williams has been a sportswriter and handicapper in New England and Las Vegas for 25 years. He has covered horse racing, football and baseball, but soccer became his first love after the 2002 World Cup. Tweet your comments, questions, best bets and sports betting anecdotes @vegasdimer.