Experts Release Genesis Invitational Predictions With Tiger Woods Confirmed Out

The 2025 Genesis Invitational tees off on Thursday, February 13, at Torrey Pines Golf Course, bringing another signature event to the PGA TOUR. This year's tournament will have a different feel with Tiger Woods officially withdrawing, citing personal reasons following the passing of his mother, Kultida Woods. Woods, who serves as the tournament’s host, expressed his appreciation for the support he has received but confirmed he isn’t ready to compete.

I planned to tee it up this week, but I’m just not ready. I did my best to prepare, knowing it’s what my Mom would have wanted, but I’m still processing her loss.

Thanks to everyone who has reached out. I hope to be at Torrey later in the week and appreciate the continued… pic.twitter.com/HP45Tla3QQ

— Tiger Woods (@TigerWoods) February 10, 2025

Despite Woods' absence, the Genesis Invitational still boasts an elite field, headlined by Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Collin Morikawa. Originally set for Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles, the tournament was relocated to Torrey Pines’ South Course due to wildfires in the LA area.

Torrey Pines, known for its long, challenging layout, will test players with narrow fairways, tricky Poa Annua greens, and signature holes like the demanding par-4 12th. Players with strong ball-striking and scrambling skills are expected to have the edge.

Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

Check out all the important details on this week’s Genesis Invitational, plus the latest odds sourced from Bet365 and BetMGM.

Tournament Details

• Event: 2025 Genesis Invitational
• Dates: Thursday, February 13 – Sunday, February 16, 2025
• Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)
• PGA TOUR standings: Current FedExCup standings
• World Golf Rankings: Our golf rankings that include PGA and LIV players

Odds

The top favorites for the 2025 Genesis Invitational:

• Scottie Scheffler: +450
• Rory McIlroy: +750
• Collin Morikawa: +1400
• Justin Thomas: +1900
• Hideki Matsuyama: +2500

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These odds represent the best available numbers from Bet365 and BetMGM at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Expert Prediction: Genesis Invitational

These odds represent the best available numbers from Bet365 and BetMGM at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Dimers’ advanced predictive analytics model has simulated the Genesis Invitational 10,000 times, projecting the most likely winners and placement finishes.

Winner Predictions:

• Scottie Scheffler: 19.6% probability
• Collin Morikawa: 6.5% probability
• Rory McIlroy: 5.5% probability

Top-10 Finish Predictions:

• Scottie Scheffler: 63.7% probability
• Collin Morikawa: 40.6% probability
• Rory McIlroy: 38.2% probability

While Scheffler’s elite ball-striking and consistency make him the clear favorite, Morikawa’s strong approach play and McIlroy’s driving ability could see them challenge for the title.

Genesis Invitational Best Bets

According to our fair odds, the top favorites are priced correctly, so the best betting value lies further down the board. Here are two sleepers that offer an edge based on Dimers’ win probabilityvs. sportsbook odds:

Outright Bets:

• Adam Scott (+8000) – 3.7% probability, 2.5% edge
• Russell Henley (+6500) – 3.2% probability, 1.7% edge

Both Scott and Henley rank inside the top seven in Dimers’ simulations, offering value at longer odds.

Top-10 Placement Odds:

• Adam Scott (+500) – 28.4% probability, 11.7% edge
• Russell Henley (+400) – 26.9% probability, 6.9% edge

Scott has historical success at this tournament, albeit at a different course, having won the Genesis Invitational in 2020, while Henley’s recent form—including a T5 last week—makes him a strong play for a top-10 finish.

Conclusion

With Tiger Woods sidelined, the 2025 Genesis Invitational will see a battle between golf’s top-ranked players on one of the most demanding courses in the sport.

Scottie Scheffler enters as the heavy favorite, while Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy look to challenge him at Torrey Pines’ treacherous South Course. Value picks like Adam Scott and Russell Henley add intrigue for bettors looking beyond the top names.

As the tournament unfolds, strong approach play and putting on Poa Annua greens will determine who emerges victorious. Stay tuned for live updates and insightsthroughout the week.