College Football Playoff Predictions - Who Will Win the National Championship?

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Written by Dave Garofolo
Reviewed by Nick Slade
We put every effort into ensuring information on Dimers is accurate. But double-check details that matter to you before making any wager.

The first-ever 12-team college football playoff commences on Friday, December 20 and we've got our predictions and best bets to win it all.

College Football Playoff Predictions, CFB Playoff Best Bets
Texas is the favorite to win the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff.

The College Football Playoff has arrived in a big way. For the first time, 12 total teams will face off in a four-round bracket to determine this year's champion.

Our model has been cooking ever since the bracket was formally announced back on December 8 and we've now got our best value bets to win it all, which we break down below.

For our deep-dive into the first round of the College Football Playoff, read our predictions for each of the first four games.

12-Team College Football Playoff Explained

The College Football Playoff kicked off in the 2014 season, initially featuring a four-team format with two semifinal matchups leading to a national championship game. Starting with the 2024-25 season, the Playoff will adopt an expanded structure:

  • A total of 12 teams will qualify for the Playoff, with automatic bids going to the five highest-ranked conference champions.
  • The top four conference champions, based on rankings, will earn the 1-4 seeds and receive a bye in the first round. These four teams are Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State.
  • Teams seeded 5-12 will face off in the first round, hosted at the home stadium of the higher-seeded team.
  • The quarterfinals and semifinals will rotate between six major bowls: Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl.

CFB PLAYOFF: First Round Predictions

College Football Playoff Schedule

  • First round (Dec. 20-21)

  • Quarterfinals (Dec. 31-Jan. 1)

    • Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Penn State/SMU Winner - 7:30 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 31 | ESPN
    • Peach Bowl: Arizona State vs. Texas/Clemson Winner - 1 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
    • Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State/Tennessee Winner - 5 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
    • Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Notre Dame/Indiana Winner - 8:45 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
  • Semifinals (Jan. 9-10)

    • Orange Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 9 | ESPN
    • Cotton Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Friday, Jan. 10 | ESPN
  • CFP National Championship (Jan. 20)

    • 7:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 20 | ESPN
    • Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
college football playoff bracket
The College Football Playoff bracket ahead of Round 1.

Who Will Win the College Football Championship?

You can view our full predictions for all 12 teams in the college football playoff, but below you'll find our Top 5 probabilities to win it all, complete with the books' best odds and our fair price:

TEAM
DIMERS PROBABILITY
BEST ODDS
DIMERS' FAIR ODDS
Texas
22.7%
+450
+340
Georgia
17.9%
+380
+460
Oregon
16.2%
+380
+515
Ohio State
12.4%
+525
+705
Penn State
10.7%
+650
+835

Best Bets to Win College Football Championship

Below are our model's Top 3 bets to win the college football championship, based on value. Please note, while other teams may be more equipped to win it all, our looks here are strictly at the price on the books vs. the fair odds identified by our model.

Bet 1: Texas Longhorns (+360 on FanDuel)

First up is the favorite - not the books' favorite, but the DimersBOT's.

The Longhorns may lack a signature top-25 victory this season, but they've battled through some high-profile matchups in the SEC. Their hard-fought 22-19 overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game was a step forward, especially considering the 30-15 defeat they suffered against the Bulldogs at home earlier in the year. The team’s growth and resilience have been evident throughout the season.

While much of the chatter revolves around the quarterback position—specifically whether Quinn Ewers should be replaced by Arch Manning—the true backbone of the Longhorns is their defense. Texas has allowed just 12.5 points per game, the lowest average since 1983. Meanwhile, Ewers has remained a steadying force under center, even while dealing with an abdominal strain. His remarkable streak of 24 consecutive games with a touchdown pass is the longest active run in college football, proving his ability to deliver when it matters most.

At a 22.7% probability, Texas is not only our favorite, but a value play as our model says the 'Horns should be just +340, identifying a little value as the favorite, and a great value if you got them at +450 at open.

🏈 #12 Clemson vs. #5 Texas Full Game Betting Preview

Bet 2: Tennessee Volunteers (+2500 on DraftKings)

Though it has faced challenges when up against similarly skilled teams, Tennessee's offense can ignite at any moment, While the Volunteers lit up the scoreboard with an eye-popping 61.8 points per game in nonconference play, they've averaged just 25 points within the SEC.

Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been sharp, tossing eight touchdowns with only one interception over the past two games, and their impressive 17-point first-half showing at Georgia is a positive indicator for the future.

The first-round matchup could be the toughest test in the bracket - Ohio State brings a well-rounded game on both sides of the ball and has yet to allow a passing touchdown since mid-October against Oregon. However, with a supremely stout running game and a top-five defense, and Tennessee has a legitimate chance to make a statement.

At 5.4% to win it all, The Vols are certainly on the lower end, but that implies odds of +1750, while we can get as far out as +2500. That's worth some lunch money according to the DimersBOT.

🏈 #9 Tennessee vs. #8 Ohio Stat3 Full Game Betting Preview

College Football Playoff best Bets
Can Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava lead the Vols to a Round 1 win?

Bet 3: SMU Mustangs (+4500 on DraftKings)

After receiving an invitation to join the ACC, SMU had less than a year to build a competitive roster. To quickly bolster their squad, the Mustangs utilized the transfer portal, bringing in 13 offensive and defensive linemen with experience from power conference teams. The strategy has paid off, with SMU ranking fourth nationally in rush defense (93.4), and only Indiana performing better among playoff teams.

SMU excels with a dominant defense landing in the top 12 for sacks and tackles for loss, coupled with an explosive offense, ranking sixth in the nation in scoring (38.5 points per game).

Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been dual-threat as a passer and a runner, nearly leading the Mustangs to a comeback victory after trailing by double digits in the ACC Championship Game.

3.3% is not a major probability, but at +4500, they have the same odds as Indiana who we give just a 2.2% chance to. We say they shouldn't be any longer than +2390, making another play worth a sprinkle for a potential massive payout.

🏈 #11 SMU vs. #6 Penn State Full Game Betting Preview

Bet on the College Football Playoff with Dimers Pro

When betting on the College Football Playoff this winter, Dimers Pro is your go-to resource. Combining advanced analytics with cutting-edge predictive models, Dimers Pro offers everything you need to elevate your game.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, you’ll find invaluable data, strategies, and opportunities in our Best College Football Bets Player Props and more.

Join Dimers Pro today for less than $1/day and take the first step toward your next big win!


CFB Resources for Bowl Season

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.

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To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.
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Written by
Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.

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