2022 MLB MVP and Cy Young Award Candidates Likely to Fade Down the Stretch

At Major League Baseball’s midpoint, it’s popular to discuss the potential Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Award winners. There are obvious frontrunners, some under-the-radar candidates and some hardy perennials garnering greater attention in betting circles. Despite their impressive first-half performances, it may be wise to assess them with the coldblooded honesty and ask why they’ve reached their present peaks and the likelihood of them maintaining or fading.

Dimers.com contributor Paul Lebowitz shares five MLB stars you don't want to bet for MVP or Cy Young winners.

Mike Trout

Trout is annually mentioned in the American League MVP conversation and deservedly so. There are several reasons why he might be passed over once the voting commences.

The Angels are a bad team even with Trout and his teammate, another contender for both the Cy Young Award and MVP, Shohei Ohtani. The other candidates who are on legitimate World Series contenders – specifically Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez – have better overall numbers and are playing for teams that are heading somewhere. The Angels are on their annual treadmill of “What do we do now?” 

#Giveaway -- Here's one of my favorite Topps💚Project70💚cards (and I don't typically dig horizontals). Another masterpiece by @ltillustrations - 1955 Mike Trout. Free to random follower+retweeter, selected Monday night. Good luck and 💚Project70💚to the moon! pic.twitter.com/kDdCZ47g4g

— ⚾ PardeeStreetBetts (@PardeeBetts) July 10, 2022

In fact, the Angels’ situation has grown so toxic that interested teams might be wise to contact the club to see if they’re willing to discuss Trout in a trade and if the player might be amenable to it. 

His numbers are excellent, but not as transcendent as they were when he had an argument to win eight consecutive MVPs (he did win three). A month from turning 31 and with a team that is going nowhere, there is a good possibility of unintentional apathy.

Add in the presence of Ohtani to overshadow him and voters might take for granted what would be a career year for most players, think he had a worse year than normal (for him) and ignore him.

Pete Alonso

Alonso is well on the way to hitting 45 home runs and driving in 150. That he is one of the undeniable leaders of the Mets also contributes to his candidacy. 

That said, voters look beyond the glossiest numbers of yesteryear: home runs and RBI. Those who do not watch Alonso regularly will say that he is a bad defensive first baseman when his defense – supposedly a major obstacle in the minors – has dramatically improved and he will eventually be considered for a Gold Glove. That, however, is not this year.

A polar plunge in Los Angeles. Pete Alonso is a 2022 All-Star! 🐻‍❄️⭐️ pic.twitter.com/ESjsq7BHDA

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) July 10, 2022

Maintaining this production as the weather heats up and the pennant race stresses hit home is a tall order.

The understated aspects of his game are all improving. He does not strike out anywhere close to the rate he did as a rookie. 

Even with the big power numbers for a contending team, he will easily get lost in the shuffle, particularly with the Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt playing the same position and adding Gold Glove defense, surprising stolen base speed and potentially winning a batting title while leading the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ and total bases.  

Tony Gonsolin

For Gonsolin, his gaudy across the board numbers leading the majors in ERA and ERA+ and surrendering half as many hits as innings pitched will vault him near the top of Cy Young Award contenders. Even with that, there is likely to be the question as to whether it’s Gonsolin himself or the Dodgers’ attention to detail making a good pitcher appear great. Nothing is left to chance in Los Angeles and their history of maximizing and rehabilitating players could be held against him. 

ALL-STAR, TONY GONSOLIN. ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/aNesc8dDw5

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) July 10, 2022

The Dodgers also manage their pitchers’ innings and micromanage down to the last pitch. Since Gonsolin is nearing his pro career maximum of 128, he will be used judiciously down the stretch to be ready for the postseason and that could hinder any chance of winning the award. With Sandy Alcantara far in front pitching for a non-contender and dominating late in games, Gonsolin is hard-pressed to catch up. 

Dansby Swanson

Swanson is a stealth candidate. He provides the defending World Series champion Braves with excellent defense, power and speed. His batting average is hovering around .300 and he is oddly benefiting in the MVP race by teammate and annual contender for the award Ronald Acnña Jr. still being used cautiously as he returns from his knee injury. 

Dansby Swanson.

All-Star him immediately.

No voting necessary. pic.twitter.com/ZKTc0GiCwY

— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) July 2, 2022

His BAbip is unsustainable at .384, his walks are down and his fly ball percentage is up suggesting that he will eventually encounter some bad luck bringing his overall statistics back in line with his career numbers. They’re sold and All-Star worthy, but not in the MVP conversation. 

Julio Rodriguez

The Mariners vaulting into playoff contention has coincided with the über-talented Rodriguez overcoming a slow start and catching fire. His production is comparable to Trout’s as a rookie. Power, speed, defense, personality – he has it all. He consistently hits the ball hard and even when he’s hitting grounders, he’s a threat to beat them out for hits. His BAbip reflects that as it has been consistently high as a professional.

Despite that, the second half of a rookie season is generally telling as teams will get a better read on how to pitch to younger players.

Only 5 athletes in the Big Four sports over the last 20 years have won an Olympic medal & made an All-Star team by age 21:

LeBron James 🇺🇸🏀
Anthony Davis 🇺🇸🏀
Patrick Kane 🇺🇸🏒
Jonathan Toews 🇨🇦🏒
Julio Rodríguez 🇩🇴⚾️ pic.twitter.com/iK8GxDLySE

— Alex Mayer (@alexmayer34) July 11, 2022

No, it’s not like it was decades ago when pitchers were afflicted with the macho need to dominate and throw fastballs to try and show a hot rookie who’s “boss,” only adapting when the hitter proves he can catch up to the gas. Nor are they helped by home plate umpires who expanded the strike zone for veteran pitchers simply due to that veteran status – they’re judged more harshly and with too much in-depth data today to get away with that. 

Gonzalez is still only 21 and has already played in more games as a professional in 2022 than he ever did before. Three more scorching months on the field could put him in the Judge/Ohtani/Alvarez stratosphere, but a slump bringing him to Earth is more probable.