WNBA Finals Betting Preview and Our Best Bets for New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx

The biggest WNBA season ever begins continues when the Minnesota Lynx host the New York Liberty in Game 5 of the WNBA Finals.

After a season that saw rookie records smashed by Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, the Aces’ A’Ja Wilson win back-to-back MVPs and all-time viewership and attendance, it’s time to crown a champion.

This five-game series is sure to be an entertaining one, with plenty of star power featuring the likes of Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart of the New York Liberty and Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride of the Minnesota Lynx.

Below, we analyze this series matchup by using our WNBA predictions, highlight our best bet for the series, and our best bet for each game, which we will update daily so be sure to check back here each game day for our best pick!

Our Best WNBA props returned over 40 units this season and we saw multiple first basket wins from our users for thousands of dollars, so we’re hoping to carry that success into this final series.

Let’s get to it!

Who is in the WNBA Finals?

The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx will compete in the 2024 WNBA finals.

New York finished with the best record in the league at 32-8 while Minnesota finished 30-10, both leading their respective conferences.

Minnesota won three of the four games these teams played against one another in the regular season.

New York Liberty Forward Breanna Stewart is averaging 20.0 PTS, 8.2 REB and 3.8 AST this postseason.

When are the WNBA Finals? Five Game Schedule

The WNBA Finals begin on Thursday, October 10 and will end on Sunday, October 20^th if the series goes five games and will air on ESPN/ABC.

The five-game schedule is as follows:

• Game 1: Thursday, 10/10, 8PM ET (Lynx Win 95-93 OT)
• Game 2: Sunday, 10/13, 3PM ET (Liberty win 80-66)
• Game 3: Wednesday, 10/16, 8PM ET (Liberty win 80-77)
• Game 4: Friday, 10/18, 8PM ET (Lynx Win 82-80)
• Game 5: Sunday, 10/20, 8PM ET

MORE: New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Game 3 Betting Preview

Who Will Win the WNBA Finals?

According to the Dimers’ predictive WNBA model that’s run thousands of simulations on the WNBA season, the New York Liberty are favored to win the WNBA Finals with a 73.7% probability over the 26.3% probability given to the Minnesota Lynx.

Before the semifinals, we gave the Liberty a 36.6% chance which has increased considerably, while we had the Lynx at 26.5%.

Best Bet for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals

Our model has identified plenty of value in this game, most of it in the props market, but we’re looking at one side of the total for Game 1.

The Over/Under is set at 159.5 for tonight’s game, which went over in 2/4 meetings in the regular season.

The total has gone over in 4/6 playoff games so far for both the Liberty and the Lynx each, and our model is predicting that to continue tonight in Game 1 with a 58.3% probability to go over 159.5, with a 6.4% edge against the odds of -108 on DraftKings.

BET: Over 159.5

Result: WIN - The game hits the Over in regulation and then goes to overtime, never in doubt!

Best Bet for Game 2 of the WNBA Finals

Game 2 tips off at 3PM ET on Sunday, October 13. The spread is set at Liberty -7 and our model likes the Lynx to cover again after winning outright in Game 1.

Minnesota overcame an 18-point deficit, hit a 4-point play in the final seconds and won in overtime to steal Game 1on the Liberty's home court. They've been tenacious all year and model liked them to cover in Game 1 as well.

We're getting a 55.4% probability for Minnesota to cover +7 and at -105 odds on Caesars Sportsbook, we get a 4.2% edge (fair odds of -124) giving us some great value.

BET: Minnesota Lynx +7 at -120 or better

RESULT: LOSS

Best Bet for Game 3 of the WNBA Finals

The series heads to Minnesota tied at 1-1 and we're 1-1 with our best bets through two games.

The Liberty controlled most of Game 2 and held off a potential late rally by the Lynx to cover their side of the spread easily.

For Game 3, we're looking at one side of the Total for our best bet, with our model identifying a strong 6.0% edge to go over 160.5 points. At a 58.0% probability, fair odds for this bet would be -138, while we're getting -108 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

BET: Over 160.5

RESULT: LOSS

Best Bet for Game 4 of the WNBA Finals

We came up just shy in Game 3 and we look to bounce back in Game 4.

It all comes down to this for Minnesota who need to win to force a Game 5, which would cash one of our series props and put the other in play.

We're going back to the Over tonight with a line at 158.5 and a 60.1% probability from our model to go over the total. At odds of -112 on FanDuel Sportsbook, we get a significant 7.3% edge.

BET: Over 158.5

Result: WIN 

Best Bet for Game 5 of the WNBA Finals

The series is 2-2 and so are we with our best bet of each game.

The Over's hit both times for us and we are once again going back to it with the lowest total and our strongest probability yet.

Our model gives a significant 63.3% probability of going over for massive 11.0% edge against the books' odds of -110. Our fair odds for this play would be way out at -172 and our projected final score of 83-79 clears by a full six points. Let's end on a high note and go Liberty, so we can cash our 3-2 series bet as well!

BET: Over 156.5

Our Best Bets for the WNBA Finals Series

The Liberty are heavy favorites at -260 to win the WNBA Finals which is not a very bettable number.

On the other hand, the Lynx are at much more appealing odds, though their 26.3% probability suggests their odds should be +280 as underdogs.

If you want to back the Liberty, then consider looking at their exact series score or WNBA Finals MVP market. You can find the Liberty to win 3-0 (+270), 3-1 (+270) and 3-2 (+320).

We don’t envision a sweep – Minnesota is very good and won the regular-season series 3-1, so that eliminates the 3-0 option and 3-1 is at the same odds. Plus, the books have the series ending in 3 games as the least likely number at +270 compared to +168 for 4 and 5 games, so that doesn’t match up. This series should be competitive and going the distance for 5 games before the Liberty seal the victory matches up well with our data.

For MVP, Breanna Stewart is the favorite at +120 with Sabrina Ionescu in second at +230. Stewart is averaging 20.0 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists this postseason, while Ionescu is averaging 20.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists for a more all-around contribution, as well as shooting a remarkable 46.5% from three-point range.

If you want to back the underdog Lynx, consider taking them to win in 4 (+630) or 5 games (+610), as well as Naphessa Collier to win MVP at +250. The entire Lynx offense moves through Collier and you get better value on her than the Lynx to win the series outright (+225).

Picks: Liberty win series 3-2 (+320), Series to go 5 Games (+168) WIN, Sabrina Ionescu Finals MVP (+230)

Dimers' WNBA Betting Resources for the 2024 WNBA Finals

• WNBA Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Finals game
• WNBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game of the postseason
• Championship Odds: Who will be crowned the champion in 2024?
• WNBA Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• WNBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.