WM Phoenix Open Predictions: Scottie Scheffler, Billy Horschel Lead Best Bets at TPC Scottsdale

The 2025 PGA TOUR season continues at the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, AZ. This week's tournament runs from Thursday, February 6 through Sunday, February 9.

Known for being a rowdy tournament with plenty of fanfare, the action at TPC Scottsdale never disappoints, especially the famous 20,000 seat grandstand around ace-ready Hole 16. Two-time champion Scottie Scheffler is massively short favorite at +280 after just missing out on his third-straight win at this event last year.

Last week, we hit our +485 Head-to-Head parlay and correctly picked Russell Henley to contend for the win and finish Top 20. Earlier this year we spied Harris English with value in the final round and the week before, identified Sepp Straka as a +2800 winner ahead of Round 2 at The American Express, so we're looking to keep our run going.

A nice +485 winner at Pebble Beach! 💰

We'll have another for #ThePeoplesOpen action in Scottsdale this week. https://t.co/GBNxj62EGL

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) February 4, 2025

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations with the field in this tournament, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024 and as mentioned, is off to a profitable start in 2025.

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Who Will Win the 2025 WM Phoenix Open?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's WM Phoenix open at TPC Scottsdale, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5/10/20:

WM Phoenix Open Golf Betting Preview

This week's tournament will be played where it has been every years since 1987 - the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale, a 7,261-yard Par 71. A field of 132 golfers will contend with a $9.2M purse on the line.

Commonly referred to as "The People's Open," TPC Scottsdale is known for its spectator antics, the Hole 16 hole-in-one haven and star-studded competitors.

Six previous champions will play - Hideki Matsuyama (2016, 2017), Gary Woodland (2018), Rickie Fowler (2019), Webb Simpson (2020), Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2023) and last year's winner via playoff, Nick Taylor (2024).

A true gauge of the top talent in the game, 9 of the past 11 winners of this event went on to win a Major or THE PLAYERS that same year. It's also worth noting that six of the past ten events have resulted in a playoff to win, with the winning score ranging between -17 and -21 since 2017.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the WM Phoenix Open

Scottie Scheffler (+280 on FanDuel)

Scottie Scheffler won back-to-back tournaments here in 2022 and 2023 before finishing T3 here last year. He's the World No. 1 and even after a slow start (by Scheffler standards) to his first event of 2025, he still scratched out a T9.

His odds are wildly short at +280 and they're likely to hover between that and the +500 we were lucky enough to find last week for most of this year - he's just that good.

Despite those short odds, our model finds some value in Scheffler to pick up his third win here in his past four tries. At 28.5%, his fair odds to win would be +250 per our model. It's not a huge value, but it's an edge nonetheless.

You can't even get plus-money odds on Scheffler to finish Top 5 (rightfully so based on our 58.1% probability), so we recommend taking the value on Scheffler while it's there.

Sam Burns (+2500 on FanDuel)

Our next winner play is on another 28-year-old who's had his fair share of success on the PGA TOUR, too.

Sam Burns is off to a solid start this year, teeing off his 2025 season with a T8 at The Sentry and a pair of Top 30 finishes in two events since. He's seen productive results at TPC Scottsdale since turning pro in 2017. After three cuts in his previous four tries, he's finished T3 and T6 in back-to-back years and looks to have figure these links out.

Featuring some of the longest birdie putt length on TOUR, Burns has an edge with his 21st-ranked Strokes Gained so far in 2025 in that category.

At 4.1% to win, Burns gets our fifth-highest win probability and fair odds of about +2350 according to our model, giving us some value against the +2500 on offer. Compared to his shortest odds we could find at +2200, the value is clear.

Billy Horschel (+5500 on FanDuel)

Our third and final winner picks is on Billy Horschel, who's coming off a T9 at Pebble Beach, an impressive turnaround after a first round 72 and for a golfer who was +10000 or longer pre-tournament.

Horschel ranks among our Top 10 projected finishers at TPC Scottsdale, a course where he's contended with a T6 and T9 in the past five years. Over last year's events, he finished with seven Top 10s, including a win and runner-up.

His putting hasn't been sharp this season and he'll need to dial in to whittle away at his score on three Par 5s, but if he can set himself up with his drives and avoid the dangerous slopes, there's no reason to believe he can't be in the mix come Sunday.

Our model gives him a 2.0% probability to win, 7th-highest in our predictions and at a fair price of +4900.

Best Top 20 Bets for the WM Phoenix Open

In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's WM Phoenix Open as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Sepp Straka to Finish Top 20 (+160 on DraftKings)

The Austrian is off to an excellent start in 2025, with a T15, T30, 1st and 7th-place finish through his four events so far. He was in a commanding lead after two round at Pebble Beach before fumbling the bag for what could have been his second win in just five events this year, but regardless already ahs half as many Top 10 finishes as he had in all of 2024.

He's our sixth-most likely winner at TPC Scottsdale and does have a fair price of +4000 aligned with our 2.4% win probability if you want to back him outright. As a Top 20 play, we give him a 40.2% probability which implies fair odds of +150 for a slim, but clear edge.

Straka also has value for a Top 10 finish at +360 with our fair price at +310.

Billy Horschel to Finish Top 20 (+210 on DraftKings)

When we have a longshot winner, we almost always like to buy ourselves a little insurance with his Top 20 placement, especially if there's value there as well.

While we hope Horschel contends, we don't want to be on the hook if he comes up just a little short and his 34.9% probability to pick up what would be his third Top 20 of the year if he didn't finish one stroke outside the mark at The American Express.

He had nine Top 20 finishes last season, with two others coming in one stroke shy as well. Our fair odds for Horschel here would be at +185.

Harry Hall to Finish Top 20 (+300 on DraftKings)

Off to a quietly productive start this year, Harry Hall is coming off his worst finish at Pebble Beach, but finished T8, T10 and T21 in his three previous tournaments.

He's gone under the radar but has already matched his Top 10 finishes from all of last year. He seems to have picked up where he left off, as through his final eight events of 2024, he finished outside a T25 just twice, and inside the Top 20 five times.

His 27.7% probability from our model makes fair odds of +260 and we can pick him up at +300.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full predictions for the WM Phoenix Open to find your favorite plays, with more edges to be found throughout the tournament!

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

• PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament
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