Will T.J. Hockenson Play Tonight? UPDATE: Vikings TE Ruled Out for Thursday Night Football

Update: As of 3:55PM ET, the Vikings have officially ruled TE T.J. Hockenson out for Thursday Night Football vs. the Rams. He will reportedly be activated on Friday with the expectation that he will play in Week 9 vs. Colts.

Original article below:

Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson could return to action for Thursday Night Football vs. the Los Angeles Rams on October 24.

The big-bodied tight end sustained a a torn ACL and MCL in Week 16 of last season and looks to finally return to the field after missing the first seven weeks of the 2024 season.

He joins a Vikings team looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season and improve on their 16.7% probability to win the NFC North according to Dimers' NFL futures predictions.

Will T.J. Hockenson Play vs. the Rams?

Hockenson's return is not yet confirmed as he's currently listed as Questionable on the Vikings latest injury report and he has not practiced all week.

Should he suit up, our predictive analytics model that has run 1000s of simulations on every game in the Week 8 NFL schedule is projecting the the tight end for a lighter workload than he might normally receive.

Our Projections for T.J. Hockenson in Vikings vs. Rams on Thursday Night Football

In Hockenson's absence, the Vikings have struggled for offensive production from the tight end position. It hasn't hindered them too much as they got off to a 5-0 start before finally dropping a game in Week 7, while superstar WR Justin Jefferson has thrived.

The addition of Hockenson would immediately improve the upside of this offense, as he's a big playmaker who's hard to bring down and has excellent hands. He was on pace for his first 1,000-yard season before getting hurt in Week 16 last year.

Presently, here's how we project T.J. Hockenson to perform in Week 8 vs. the Rams, compared to the sportsbooks' posted lines and odds, should he be activated for this game:

• 36 Projected Receiving Yards (No line available)
• 24.8% Anytime Touchdown Probability (+125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• 5.0% First Touchdown Probability (+700 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• 2.6% 2+ Touchdown Probability (+900 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Based on our Vikings vs. Rams prediction, you can see that our model projects Hockenson to slide right into the TE1 role again, although with a reduced output. If you search in our best NFL props here, you'll find our model does favor Hockenson's receiving yards over, set at 26.5 yards.

Betting and Fantasy Outlook for T.J. Hockenson

Our projected statistics for T.J. Hockenson above translate to roughly 6.1 fantasy points, if you translate our yards to traditional fantasy scoring and our TD probability as 2.48 points (24.8%).

Many fantasy managers have been holding on to Hockenson in their IR spot, waiting for his return to juice up their starting lineups. However, with our model projecting a reduced workload as he gets eased back into things, he may not be worth a start unless you're in dire straights for a tight end this week.

From a betting perspective, our model says you want to bet a Hockenson Anytime touchdown at odds of +300 or better, a good bit off from his +205 price at DraftKings.

For the first touchdown, you want odds of +1900 or better based on our 5.0% probability.

🏈 MORE: Full Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview

Dimers' Predictions for Vikings vs. Rams on Thursday, October 24

Vikings vs. Rams: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

• Teams: Vikings vs. Rams
• Date: Thursday, October 24, 2024
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

Current Betting Odds

• Spread: Vikings favored at -2.5
• Total (Over/Under): 48
• Moneyline Odds: Vikings -145, Rams +135

According to Dimers, the Moneyline, Spread, and Total predictions for the game are:

• Moneyline: The Vikings have a 59% moneyline probability
• Spread: The Vikings have a 50% probability to cover the 2.5-point spread
• Total: The game total is projected to go under 48 points

These predictions suggest that Hockenson's potential return sets up the Vikings for a Thursday Night Football victory.

For more analysis on this NFC matchup, Jason Bevilacqua breaks down every betting angle of Vikings vs. Rams.

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