Christian McCaffrey Activated off IR - Will he Play in Week 10 vs. Buccaneers? Betting Odds and Projections

Update: As of 4:00PM ET on November 9, Christian McCaffrey has been added the 49ers' 53-man roster for Sunday.

Original Article below:

San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey is potentially set to make his NFL regular season debut in Week 10 vs. the Buccaneers on Sunday, November 10.

Since a preseason injury had the superstar running back's status for Week 1 in question, he has yet to play this season, only just returning to practice this week.

If he suits up, he joins a 49ers team that has been hampered by injuries all season long, including to other star players like Brandon Aiyuk (out for season) and previously Deebo Samuel.

Despite the injury, the 49ers are the favorite to win the NFC west and hold value to make an NFC Championship and Super Bowl LIX according to Dimers' NFL futures predictions, holding a 51.5% probability to win the division.

Is Christian McCaffrey Playing in Week 10?

While he's expected to play, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is notoriously coy about his players' status, which is how the McCaffrey injury saga began in the first place. He hinted at McCaffrey's availability for Week 1 before backup Jordan Mason was tapped to start, who himself later suggested he knew he'd be starting days in advance.

"He's been awesome these last two days. You never know [about] a setback or anything, but these two days have been great, and I expect to see him out there," Shanahan told KNBR radio on Thursday.

CMC's immediate role isn't totally clear, but given his injury history and how this particular Achilles tendinitis has hampered him all season, it's unlikely they'd thrust him out there if he wasn't ready. While they may take some of the more violent touches in the middle of the field and on plays like 3rd and long away from him, our predictive analytics model that runs 1000s of simulations on every game in the Week 10 NFL scheduleis projecting him to slide right back into his traditional workload.

Our Projections for Christian McCaffrey in 49ers vs. Buccaneers Week 10 Matchup

Christian McCaffrey handled the ball 417 times last season, a career high. Only running backs like Derrick Henry and pre-injury Nick Chubb have seen that kind of workhorse volume in recent years.

If they needed to play it safe, they wouldn't start him - they're still very much in play for the division and the long game is more important than winning a Week 10 matchup vs. the depleted Buccaneers.

Presently, here's how we project McCaffrey to perform in Week 10 vs. the Buccaneers, compared to the sportsbooks' posted lines and odds:

• 80.2 Projected Rushing Yards (O/U 65.5)
• 31.4 Projected Receiving Yards (O/U 25.5)
• 62.2% Anytime Touchdown Probability (-230 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• 15.4% First Touchdown Probability (+400 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• 21.6% 2+ Touchdown Probability (+225 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Additionally, here's our limited projections for the projected RB2 behind him, Jordan Mason:

• 26 Projected Rushing Yards (No line available)
• 23.2% Anytime TD Probability (+330 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Based on our 49ers vs. Buccaneers prediction, you can see that our model projects McCaffrey to slide right back into his role. If there is player prop value in his markets before gametime, like the one you see below, you'll find our best NFL props here.

🏈 MORE: San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

Betting and Fantasy Outlook for Christian McCaffrey

Our projected statistics for McCaffrey above translate to roughly 16.3 fantasy points, if you translate our yards to traditional fantasy scoring and our TD probability as 6.2 points (62%).

Unless you are so stacked at RB, you haven't even been missing McCaffrey, you have to fire him up if he returns. Most fantasy teams with CMC are probably sitting below .500 unless they've acquired him via trade or managed to stay afloat by some fortuitous waiver wire grabs.

The bigger takeaway is that outside of McCaffrey, this backfield is untouchable in fantasy, unless you're desperate for an RB to start. Mason or even Isaac Guerendo could feasibly vulture a goal-line touch, but there's no reason to expect them to handle double-digit carries if McCaffrey is healthy enough to go.

From a betting perspective, our model says you want to bet a McCaffrey Anytime touchdown at odds of -165 or better, a far cry from the current -230 odds available at DraftKings.

For the first touchdown, you want odds of +550 or better based on our 15.4% probability.

Are the books undervaluing the 49ers?

Our fair odds for each market:

🏈 Win NFC West: -105
🏈 Win NFC: +535
🏈 Win Super Bowl: +975

You hopping on the Niners train while the value is still there?

Full NFL futures predictions: https://t.co/VDd0TCQAuA pic.twitter.com/DJjvizfUKW

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) November 6, 2024

Dimers' Predictions for 49ers vs. Buccaneers on Sunday, November 10

49ers vs. Buccaneers: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

• Teams: 49ers vs. Buccaneers
• Date: Sunday, November 10, 2024
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium

Current Betting Odds

• Spread: 49ers favored at -6.5
• Total (Over/Under): 50.5
• Moneyline Odds: 49ers -290, Buccaneers +245

According to Dimers, the Moneyline, Spread, and Total predictions for the game are:

• Moneyline: The 49ers have a 68% moneyline probability
• Spread: The Buccaneers have a 57% probability to cover the 6.5-point spread
• Total: The game total is projected to go over 50.5 points

For more analysis on this NFC matchup, Mac Douglass breaks down every betting angle of 49ers vs. Buccaneers.

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.