Who Will Be The Next Pope After Pope Francis? Betting Markets Suggest Two Clear Favorites to Be Selected by Conclave

As the world of sportsbetting increases its vast reach, the emerging trend of betting on real-world events grows alongside it and we have the first event of its kind now up on the betting markets.

We are of course talking about betting on who will be the next Pope of the Catholic Church.

When Pope Francis passed the day after Easter Sunday at the age of 88, the centuries-long tradition to answer the question "Who will be the next pope," began with the nine-day mourning period, known as novendiales (from the Latin nine days), taking place before the traditional Vatican ceremony of selecting the successor begins.

120 specifically selected Cardinals under the age of 80 will meet to discuss and vote in the conclave to decide the next pope.

And for those inclined to get some action on this historical event, the international betting markets are open as the world wonders who will succeed Pope Francis.

In line with the growing popularity of betting on alternative events like political elections, entertainment awards and where the President will appear next, betting on the next Pope doesn't even sound that crazy.

So, let's dig in to this first-of-its-kind event in the modern sportsbetting landscape.

The movement for the top three most-likely successors to Pope Francis, according to Kalshi.

How to Bet on Who Will be the Next Pope

As sportsbetting has only become widely legalized in the past decade and Pope Francis was selected in 2013, this is the first time there's been this specific event in the world of legalized, regulated sportsbetting.

However, don't go firing up your FanDuel or bet65 sportsbook apps - the market for betting on the next Pope can only be found on offshore books or exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket.

In total, Kalshi has seen a little over $1M in total stake bet on Pope Francis' successor, while Polymarket has cleared a $5M handle.

By contrast, the NBA Finals has a $2 Billion handle, the highest of all events on Polymarket, while the Romanian Presidential Election has the highest of any real world event outside of sports, with a $335 Million handle.

Next Pope Betting Odds - Who Will be The Next Pope?

If the markets are the gauge to go by, then there are two clear favorites on the board.

The above data is from Kalshi at the time of publishing. Like all live betting markets, the data is subject to change.

Three Italians in the Top 5? What kind of homefield advantage is this?!

If we were looking at sportsbetting futures like who will win the World Series, we'd say there are two most likely cardinals as clear favorites in the race to be selected as the next Pope - Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines.

However, it's worth noting that back in 2013, the eventual selection of Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio (Pope Francis) saw betting markets place him as low as 15th.

And while the Church insists the Holy Spirit guides the election, Kalshi traders and prediction markets are betting on the influence of everything from papal legacy to politics, but what transpires between the 120 cardinals during the secretive conclave is a mystery, and anyone can emerge as the Church's next papal figure.

Except this guy - we'd say he's about +10000000 to be selected.

Papal Prop Picks are Palpable

The impact of Pope Francis' death on sportsbetting expands beyond just wagering on the selection of his successor.

Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos has become a bit of a meme due to his supposed tendency to homer after major events, like the death of a public figure.

In the hours after Pop Francis' death on Monday, April 21, Castellanos became the most-bet player to hit a home run, holding 3x as much handle as the next player. His odds plummeted from as long as +750 on some books at opening to just +400 by gametime.

He did not end up hitting a home run, helping the books clean up with that significant betting handle on Castellanos, further hammering home the impact that any real world event has on the sportsbetting landscape as it continues to expand.

Nick Castellanos has a history of hitting dingers during major news events or noteworthy deaths.

Pope Francis just passed away.@Phillies outfielder (+625) is the most bet player to hit a Home Run today.

3X as many bets on Castellanos as any other player at @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/w8mJO2kJWz

— John Ewing (@johnewing) April 21, 2025

Conclusion: Betting on World Events Will Keep Growing

Is betting on the papacy in poor taste? Perhaps. But it’s not about wagering with one's faith — it’s a reflection of how humans (particularly the sportsbetting swath of them) have an urge to get some skin in any game possible.

As the Sistine Chapel fills with whispered prayers and the eyes of the world turn skyward for that plume of white smoke, bettors will be refreshing their dashboards with bated breath.