Weekend Soccer Best Bets From Premier League And Around The World: November 12 & 13

Well folks, this is it. One last hurrah for club soccer before the long awaited and/or feared Qatar World Cup finally arrives. To be honest, I haven't quite figured out how to deal with it. On the one hand, the World Cup is a truly incredible event and rooting for (or playing for) your country has more meaning for most than club soccer ever could. On the other hand, we go from dozens of soccer games a day with a boatload of options to a very limited slate of games for about a month and a half. Add in that international soccer tends to be a bit more erratic and low quality and the gambling opportunities will certainly decrease as well.

So, what is there to do about it? Nothing. Whether we like it or not, FIFA dug this grave 10 years ago and stuck us with an unpleasant situation that we just have to accept. As a fan of the sport I’m looking forward to watching another iteration and seeing who can lift the trophy (I haven't got a clue who it will be), but as a gambler it takes away the beauty of Saturdays and Sundays filled with picks across Europe. Alas, no use crying over spilled milk, we just have to suck it up and enjoy what we’ve got.

With that, one last round of picks and (hopefully) winners until Boxing Day.

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Premier League Best Bets for Matchweek 16 - November 12 & 13

Wolves vs. Arsenal: Best Bet

Kickoff: Saturday, November 12 - 2:45PM ET

If you can’t beat ‘em, at least bet on them so their success makes you money (I modified that one a bit for obvious reasons). By all accounts, Arsenal dont seem capable of slowing down right now. It is, honestly, a shocking level of consistency for a team that did not project to finish anywhere near City to start the season, but you simply can’t deny 34 points from 13 matches.

So, while I loathe the idea of betting on the Gunners to continue their success, I’m going to make the best of a bad situation here. Arsenal have scored well all season, and their away form, while not quite as high scoring, is just as impressive (1st in the EPL). Wolves, for their part, really arent any good at all. The same way clubs like Sheffield and Burnley have dropped over the last two seasons employing a style best described as “ruin the fun as much as possible and pray for a 1-0 win,” Wolves have had no success finding results this year and sit with a -14 GD through 14 matches. Arsenal should, by all accounts, whip them and I see no reason they won’t.

In line with that, let’s take our new favorite approach in 1H TT Over 0.5 and TT Over 1.5 on the Gunners because both of those numbers seem extremely realistic and we get a fairly solid price at -106 for the bet. Sure, if Wolves are able to successfully suck the life out of the game we may run into trouble here, but nothing about their or Arsenal’s form suggests it’s going to happen so I’m willing to take on the risk. And, if it doesnt hit, there’s a good chance Arsenal drop points, which isnt that bad either.

Bet: Arsenal 1H TT Over 0.5 + TT Over 1.5 (-106, 1.5 units)

Fulham vs. Manchester United: Best Bet

Kickoff: Sunday, November 13 - 11:30AM ET

Sunday’s slate is, to put it mildly, fucking horrendous. Only 2 matches are being played and this is undoubtedly the better of them, which says more about the other one than anything else. And, when we run into a scenario like this, we really have two options: creativity or caution. I’m opting for the latter.

I’ll start by saying that if -166 bets arent your thing then skip ahead. In my opinion, that’s a pretty silly stance to take because I’m happy to make money however it comes my way, but I know the gambling culture is skewed towards plus odds and parlays so I wont pretend that everyone wants to buy into my schtick. But, if you’re open to it, I think we can make some decent bankroll.

What is this lame bet? Over 2.5. To start, Fulham matches tend to be high scoring. And by tend, I mean that it’s hit in 12 of their 14 EPL fixtures this year which is an ungodly amount of consistency. United aren’t quite on that level, but in a match where they want to take 3 points we can expect them to be aggressive and search out goals early. They should find them against a porous Cottager defense, but they’ll also present opportunities to Fulham by pushing forward and the home side have proven they can take them. Over 2.5 feels, in all honesty, like the low water mark and I could easily see this getting to 4 or 5, but we stay on the safer end of things this time and ride the over 2.5.

Bet: Over 2.5 (-166, 2 units)

Bundesliga Best Bet - November 12

Schalke vs. Bayern Munich: Best Bet

Kickoff: Saturday, November 12 - 12:30PM ET

Time to go back to the fountain of never ending money that is “Bayern Munich 1H TT Over 1.5.” For those not paying attention, this is a bet that I’ve made a few times lately because it simply hits with too much consistency to bet anything else. Aside from a meaningless UCL game against Inter, Bayern have scored multiple first half goals in 8 straight matches which is an insane amount of regularity to hit on a bet like that, especially when it’s almost always positive odds.

This matchup projects to be no different. Schalke are dead last in the Bundesliga with the second worst defensive record, and by all accounts Bayern will skull fuck them (sorry if any children are reading this, but you’re parents are doing a poor job). Sure, Bayern have dealt with a heavy fixture schedule and some recent injury issues, but even if they threw out a side of mostly backups they would still heavily dominate Schalke. Nothing in gambling lasts forever, but as long as books continue to throw out numbers like +136 on this bet I will continue to take on the risk. Let’s ride that horse one last time before it gets sent to the metaphorical glue factory (I guess the World Cup is the glue factory here? I’m not really sure).

Bet: Bayern 1H TT Over 1.5 (+136, 1.25 units)