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Capitals vs. Penguins Prediction: Washington Predicted to Win Thursday's NHL Matchup [4/17/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Our expert prediction for Thursday's Washington Capitals vs Pittsburgh Penguins matchup.
NHL action continues on Thursday at 7:00PM ET as the Washington Capitals lock horns with the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at PPG Paints Arena.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) projects the Capitals as the most likely winner of today's game.
"Using the latest data, our experts simulated Thursday's Washington-Pittsburgh game 10,000 times," said Mac Douglass from Dimers.
"Taking into account recent updates and various additional inputs, we forecast the Capitals with a win probability of 52% and the Penguins with 48%."
For expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Capitals vs. Penguins predictions page.
Get 20% off Dimers Pro With Code 20HOCKEY Get Dimers Pro Capitals vs. Capitals Prediction: Who Will Win, Cover the Puck Line?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Capitals and Penguins 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Capitals a 52% chance of beating the Penguins.
According to our model, the Capitals (+1.5) have a 72% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6 goals has a 51% chance of going over.
Capitals vs. Penguins Odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Capitals | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-278) | -1.5 (+225) |
| Moneyline | -110 | -102 |
| Total | o6 (-115) | u6 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Capitals vs. Penguins Picks and Best Bets
Our model's biggest edge in today's Capitals vs. Penguins matchup is on the moneyline.
Our expert predictions, matched against the best odds, reveal the best NHL picks and NHL best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Unlock Every Capitals-Penguins Pick Get Dimers Pro Capitals vs. Penguins Player Props
Who will score an anytime goal in Capitals vs. Penguins?
According to our model, Washington's Alex Ovechkin is most likely to score the first goal in Capitals vs. Penguins.
Our projections give Ovechkin a 9.3% chance of scoring the first goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the Capitals star is a 41.4% chance of netting an anytime goal.
First Goal Scorer Predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 9.3% |
| Dylan Strome | 6.6% |
| Tom Wilson | 5.7% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Vasily Ponomarev | 7.1% |
| Sidney Crosby | 6.8% |
| Bryan Rust | 5.6% |
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 41.4% |
| Dylan Strome | 33.4% |
| Tom Wilson | 31.6% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Vasily Ponomarev | 34.7% |
| Sidney Crosby | 34.0% |
| Bryan Rust | 29.6% |
Caps vs. Penguins Game-Day Updates and Essential Details
Thursday's game between the Penguins and Capitals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
- Date: Thursday, April 17, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: PPG Paints Arena
The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is the National Hockey League's postseason elimination tournament to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.
A total of 16 teams, including the Capitals and Penguins, reached the NHL Playoffs 2025, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins progressing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Dimers.com's full preview of Thursday's Capitals vs. Penguins matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Washington vs. Pittsburgh picks, be sure to check out the latest NHL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
Conclusion
We predict the Capitals, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Capitals vs. Penguins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
More on NHL
Stay informed with the latest NHL betting news and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds offer the latest projections for the Stanley Cup title.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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