Vikings vs. Dolphins Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Sunday, October 16, 2022

Updated: Dec 21, 2023, 2:54PM | First published: Oct 11, 2022, 8:52PM

Written by Greg Waddell, Creative Strategist

Vikings vs. Dolphins Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Sunday, October 16, 2022

The Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins face off in a battle of teams with winning records, which makes for a marquee matchup at 1:00PM ET on Sunday, October 16. Hard Rock Stadium in Miami is sure to be rocking, and playoff implications could be impacted down the road for both teams.

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Vikings vs. Dolphins betting preview.

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Vikings vs. Dolphins Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

58% chance the Dolphins cover the +3 spread
57% chance the Vikings win on the moneyline
No edge on the Over/Under 45.5 points

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Vikings vs. Dolphins data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Vikings vs. Dolphins Odds and Betting Lines

Why The Vikings Will Cover The Spread

The Vikings have won three straight games, and all have been remarkably consistent performances as a whole — a 28-24 win against the Lions, followed by a 28-25 win at the Saints and a 29-22 victory against the Bears last week.

While Minnesota has been the model of consistency in the NFL, the Dolphins' health hasn't allowed for the same. Following Tua Tagovailoa's removal against the Bengals, Miami has lost consecutive games by 10+ points, including last week's 40-17 loss at the hands of Zach Wilson's New York Jets. If Teddy Bridgewater can't go for Miami, the Vikings are the favorite here.

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Why The Dolphins Will Cover The Spread

Despite Miami's health concerns, they still have the talent on both sides of the ball to keep this close. The Dolphins are undefeated at home this season and covered both games comfortably.

On the other side, while the Vikings have consistently found the win column in recent weeks, they have also shown they cannot be trusted from a betting perspective whatsoever. They currently sit at an abysmal 1-4 record against the spread. Look no further than last week when the Vikes let a 21-3 lead against the Bears turn into a one-point deficit late in the fourth quarter.

Why The Over Will Hit

The Vikings offense has proven it will score between 20-29 points week in and week out. At this point, if Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook are suiting up, it's safe to assume Minnesota will find the end zone a good number of times every game.

The Miami defense finally broke last week against the Jets, feeling the pressure of needing to be flawless to make up for having a third string QB in the game on offense. Giving up 40 points to the Jets is no small feat — they have been held under 30 points in three of their other four games this season. If Cousins can take care of the ball, points should be scored here.

Why The Under Will Hit

With all due respect to makeshift starting quarterback Skylar Thompson, he's not Tua and he's not even Bridgewater. In his first extended action last week, Thompson threw for 166 yards on 33 attempts and had an interception with zero touchdowns.

It's simply tough to trust the Dolphins' quarterbacks here. Whether or not Bridgewater plays could make the difference, but regardless, there's too many questions to feel comfortable hammering the over.

Vikings vs. Dolphins Prediction

Lean: Under 45.5

We think both teams currently are worse that their records show, and whether due to injuries or schedule luck or both, that's enough for us to expect an ugly game in this one. We'll go with the Under 45.5 points.

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Written by

Greg Waddell

Creative Strategist

Greg Waddell is a self-proclaimed college basketball addict, with an affinity for parlays and fantasy football trades. He's based in Michigan, where he hasn't seen one of his professional sports teams win anything of any importance since he was in diapers.