Apr 5, 2025
Bet365 Bonus Code DIMERS Unlocks $1.15K Bonus for Final Round of the Valero Texas Open 2025
Read Article Valero Texas Open Picks, Odds, Predictions and Betting Preview Includes Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
We put every effort into ensuring information on Dimers is accurate. But double-check details that matter to you before making any wager.
The PGA TOUR tees off in San Antonio at the Valero Texas Open for a tune-up before The Masters. Check out our best winner picks and placement bets from our predictive model.
The PGA TOUR wraps up its brief Texas swing with the Valero Texas Open from Thursday, April 3 through Sunday, April 6 at the AT&T Oaks Course in San Antonio, TX.
It's the final event before The Masters and the field is a nice mix of top contenders looking to finalize their form before Augusta and some longshot talent just looking to play some good golf.
Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations with the field in this tournament, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.
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Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024 and got off to a productive start this year, identifying multiple mid-tournament winners in 2025 like Harris English and Sepp Straka at longshot odds.
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Get 1 Month for the Price of 1 Week with Promo Code MARCH Get Dimers Pro Who Will Win the 2025 Valero Texas Open?
Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Valero Texas Open in San Antonio, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5/10/20:
| GOLFER | WIN | TOP 5 | TOP 10 | TOP 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | 7.9% | 26.9% | 40.7% | 56.8% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 7.7% | 26.3% | 41.1% | 57.9% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 5.7% | 19.7% | 33.1% | 50.2% |
| Corey Conners | 5.3% | 20.6% | 33.0% | 50.2% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 5.2% | 19.1% | 31.9% | 49.1% |
Valero Texas Open Betting Preview and Course Layout
While a number of golfers in this field already have their ticket punched to The Masters, much of the field be looking for a win to sneak their way into Augusta - something that's happened in three of the last five editions of this tournament, including last year's champ, Akshay Bhatia.
For 15 consecutive years, this event has served as the final tune-up before The Masters, offering a 7,494-yard par 72 which contains some of the most difficult par 5 holes on the entire PGA TOUR.
The wind could pick up throughout the weekend, meaning it could come down to who who can dominate on approach. If it stays relatively manageable, we should see a winner pushing a score of -20.
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Best Bets to Win the 2025 Valero Texas Open
We see a good amount of value on our top projected contenders, as well as a couple longer odds our model says are mispriced. Additionally, we'll note the players who are worth a play at their Top 20 placement or otherwise.
Tommy Fleetwood (+1600 on FanDuel)
Tommy Fleetwood enters this week’s tournament with elite ball-striking, ranking 12th in SG: Approach and 13th in Par-4 Scoring—two key stats for success this week. His consistency has been undeniable, finishing no worse than T22 in five starts this year, including a T5 and T11. With the Masters looming, this event sets up perfectly for a breakthrough, as players look to claim their first PGA TOUR win in these quieter weeks. Fleetwood’s familiarity with the course, highlighted by a T7 finish last year, strengthens his case.
According to our model, Fleetwood carries a 7.9% probability to win—the highest of any golfer in the field—translating to fair odds of +1200. Given his steady form and statistical profile, he’s a strong contender to break through. If his iron play remains sharp and he capitalizes on scoring opportunities, this could finally be the week he secures that elusive first PGA TOUR victory.
Patrick Cantlay (+1800 on FanDuel)
Patrick Cantlay is another one who's been consistent this year, finishing in the top five twice and inside the top 20 in seven of his last ten starts. His best performance came at The Genesis Invitational, where he tied for fifth at 8-under. Now, he makes his debut at the Valero Texas Open, looking to build on his strong season, but catch his first win since 2022. His well-rounded game, highlighted by a 13th-place ranking in SG: Total, positions him well to contend despite being new to the event.
According to the DimersBOT, Cantlay is the second-most likely winner this week, carrying a 7.7% probability and offering significant value compared to sportsbook odds (+1800 compared to our fair odds of about +1200). While his SG: Off The Tee (47th) is a slightly weaker point, his solid approach play (33rd) and putting (35th) keep him in the mix. Add in his TGL title, and look for Cantlay to ride that momentum to another high finish, or even his first win of the season.
Also look at Cantlay to finish Top 20 with +115 odds and our probability of 57.9% saying he should be -140.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2200 FanDuel)
After an unexpected missed cut at The PLAYERS, Hideki Matsuyama returns well-rested and ready to sharpen his game before Augusta. While his stumble at TPC Sawgrass was surprising given his recent top-10 finishes there, his track record at San Antonio suggests a strong bounce-back. Matsuyama has finished 15th and 7th in his last two appearances at the Valero Texas Open, excelling on the Oaks Course thanks to his ability to save strokes around the greens.
Despite ranking just 104th in SG: Off The Tee, Matsuyama’s strengths lie elsewhere - ranking 11th in SG: Total (1.352) bolstered by an elite rank of 2nd in Scrambling, 12th in Tee to Green, and 31st in SG: Approach (0.451). His well-rounded skill set makes him a serious contender, and our model gives him a 5.7% chance to win, the third-best in the field, with fair odds of +1650. If his short game remains sharp, he’s more than capable of contending in his final tune-up before The Masters.
He's another Top 20 look with +125 odds and a fair price of +100
Justin Rose (+10000 FanDuel)
Justin Rose makes his return to the Valero Texas Open for the first time since 2006, though he’ll be seeing TPC San Antonio for the first time in his career. His 2025 season has been a rollercoaster, alternating between missed cuts and impressive finishes. He’s already notched a T3 at Pebble Beach and a T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but has also missed the weekend three times, including at The PLAYERS and The Genesis Invitational. If the pattern holds, this could be another strong showing.
While Rose isn’t a top-tier favorite, his betting value stands out. Dimers gives him a 2.1% win probability, translating to fair odds of +4660, far better than his current +10000 odds. That discrepancy makes him an intriguing longshot, and with his upside, a Top 20 bet at +350 (we project over 33%) could be an even sharper play. If he finds his rhythm, he has the game to make a deep run in San Antonio.
Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
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Dimers and Responsible Gambling
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To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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