UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis Betting Preview, Expert Picks and Analysis

The first PPV event of 2024 kicks off in just a few days, and our UFC betting expert has been called in to deliver your best bets for the massive evening of fights. 

The UFC is returning to Toronto for the first time since 2018, and we have not one, but two title fights on tap for Saturday night. In the main event, Middleweight champion Sean Strickland is putting his belt on the line against rising star Dricus Du Plessis. These two fighters do not really care what the media thinks of them, routinely putting themselves at the center of controversy. At UFC 296, the pair were filmed throwing fists in the audience, and there is no shortage of bad blood between the two.

Du Plessis has still yet to taste defeat in the UFC, while Strickland just dispatched Israel Adesanya, who enjoyed a lengthy title reign at Middleweight. In the co-main event, Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva will square off for the vacant Bantamweight belt, after Amanda Nunes hung up the gloves last year. There is no shortage of Canadian fighters on the card, with every preliminary fight, and two main card fights featuring a homegrown fighter. 

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UFC 297 Betting Preview, Expert Picks & Analysis

UFC Middleweight Championship: Sean Strickland (C) vs Dricus Du Plessis (#2)

In the main event of the evening, the bad blood will be boiling over in a bout between unlikely champion Sean Strickland (28-5) and Dricus Du Plessis (20-2). Strickland came into the UFC as an undefeated prospect in 2014 and won his first two appearances in the promotion. However, a pedestrian 4-3 run to follow halted his momentum, as he settled into life in the UFC. Between 2018 and 2022, Strickland strung together 6 straight wins to set up a title eliminator against Alex Pereira.

While the fight appeared close, Strickland got his lights turned out in the first round, before falling to Jared Cannonier via split decision 5 months later. The 31-year-old Strickland’s time was running out to make a title charge, and he took 2023 by the reins and had a dominant year. A 5-round decision of Nassourdine Imavov kicked off his year, before a come-from-behind knockout win over Abus Magomedov set up his title fight against Israel Adesanya.

Strickland used a stiff jab to keep Adesanya out of his rhythm and made one of the best kickboxers in UFC history look helpless on the feet. Strickland has the grit, chin, and power to make life difficult, and his unique upright stance keeps his opponents uncomfortable, while staying safe in the process. 

Du Plessis will be eager to turn Strickland’s lights out, after ‘not pressing charges so he could exact his own revenge” after their altercation at UFC 296. Du Plessis stormed into the UFC with his EFC belt over his shoulder and was ready to take on whoever stood in his path. Three straight quick finishes to start his UFC career had eyeballs looking in his direction, and his face crank over Darren Till improved his UFC record to 5-0.

After brutalizing Derek Brunson so badly that his own corner had to throw in the towel, Du Plessis was tasked with dispatching a perennial Middleweight contender, Robert Whittaker. He was a massive +300 underdog, but after a back-and-forth first round, Du Plessis turned up the heat and knocked Whittaker out in the second. His fluid punches with a surprising amount of power and accuracy can give even the world’s best fighters problems, and the South African fighter will be eager to taste UFC gold in Canada. 

This matchup will likely be staying on the feet for long stretches, and will be very intriguing to watch. Strickland used an upright stance, and a stiff jab to outclass Adesanya in his recent championship bout, and Du Plessis has a similar build and style, so there’s no reason that won’t work again. However, the effectiveness of his jab was thanks to the lack of film on Strickland with that style, and a well-prepared Du Plessis will have a gameplan ready for that style of fight.

If this one turns into a slugfest, Du Plessis is certainly the way to go, as his looping punches have a much higher finish rate than Strickland’s short jabs. Strickland is coming in as a short -120 favorite, with Du Plessis coming back at +100, and I can’t say I disagree with the line. These two fighters are very evenly matched, and despite Strickland’s success against the former champion, I’ll have to lean Du Plessis’s way. Strickland has been caught by lengthy strikers in the past, and I trust that the educated Du Plessis will have come up with a gameplan to defuse his jab.

Whether that’s staying on the outside and picking power shots, or getting in tight and turning this one into a dirty fight, Du Plessis has the wherewithal to avoid getting into a jabbing match against Strickland. At plus money, he’ll eventually crack Strickland, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a club and sub at +600 odds. However, I’ll just stick to the moneyline and take the plus money ticket to the window.

Best Bet: Du Plessis (+100)

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship: Raquel Pennington (#2) vs Mayra Bueno Silva (#3)

Amanda Nunes has hung up the gloves, making way for a new generation of elite female fighters in the UFC. The 35-year-old fighter Raquel Pennington (15-8) will get her last chance at a UFC title after she failed to claim the belt against Amanda Nunes in 2018 in her first title shot.

Pennington was never able to find consistency in the UFC, starting off her career with a 1-2 record, before a string of 4 straight wins set up a title shot against Nunes in 2018. She was competitive in that fight, but was clearly behind on the scorecards before the former champion knocked her out midway through the fifth round. That led to a record of 1-3 over her next 4 fights, but a 5-fight win streak has gifted her with the opportunity to claim the vacant belt.

Pennington may not be getting highlight reel finishes, but her well-rounded skill set has allowed her to outwork her opponents, and get the nod from the judges. Pennington fights with her head and refuses to engage in unfavorable circumstances. She’s ground out countless wins against the cage before, and with UFC gold on the line, she will do whatever it takes to get the win. 

Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1, 1 NC) had her recent ninja choke overturned due to her testing positive for ritalinic acid, but in the octagon, she’s effectively won 4 straight fights. A choke over Holly Holm is undoubtedly the highlight of her career, but Bueno Silva will be eager to take it a step further against Pennington. Five of her 6 wins in the UFC came via submission, with the classic armbar being her specialty move.

On the mat, Bueno Silva is as lethal as they come in the UFC, but the experienced Pennington should be able to keep her wits and stay safe. Pennington loves to go to the ground and take a dominant position, but with the jiu-jitsu specialist Bueno Silva being so comfortable on her back looking for an armbar, Pennington will need to be extremely cautious even when she’s on top. 

In this matchup, Pennington is coming in as a moderate underdog, and I’m a little confused as to why. She's been able to stay out of her grappling-heavy opponents' grasps and ride out decision wins, and there’s no reason to expect the veteran to sway from her trusted game plan with the belt on the line.

Bueno Silva lacks the upright abilities to keep this one competitive on the feet, and Pennington’s ability to dip in and out of the pocket, while racking up points along the way is second to none in the Women’s Bantamweight division. Unless she gets sloppy on the mat, I expect her to turn this one into a little bit of a slog, and cruise to an increasingly wide decision victory.

As Bueno Silva tires, a late finish may present itself, but when she’s up 3-1 or 4-0 heading into the final round, there will be no reason to get over aggressive. At +140 odds on Pennington, the former title challenger is absolutely the bet to make in the co-main event.

PICK: Raquel Pennington to Win (+140)

UFC Main Card Welterweight Bout: Neil Magny (#13) vs Mike Malott

The rising Canadian star Mike Malott (10-1-1) will get his biggest opportunity yet, with a chance to enter the rankings on the line at UFC 297. In a card filled with Canadians, there is no doubt that Malott is the most promising prospect. He’s a perfect 3-0 in the UFC, with 3 finishes under his belt.

To take a step further, all 10 of his career victories have come via finish, with 4 knockouts and 6 submissions to his name. Malott is a crisp striker, with a black belt in BJJ in his back pocket. His ability to stand and trade with quality strikers has made his takedowns that much more effective, as compared to other one-trick ponies, Malott has the ability to turn off his opponent’s lights on the feet.

Make no mistake, it’s the ground game that will get Malott flying up the UFC rankings. Malott’s ability to leverage his big body on the ground has led to 4 submissions in his last 5 fights, and the man went into the second round for just the second time in his career last time out. This man is a killer. 

His opponent, Neil Magny (28-11), is a very talented mixed martial artist, but he lacks the finishing ability needed to get Malott out of the cage. Magny has been in the UFC since 2013, with a stunning 21-10 record in the world’s biggest promotion.

The lack of finishes has seen him fail to challenge for a UFC title, despite setting the record for most UFC wins in a year (5) in 2014. Magny has been able to dispatch inferior foes, but has failed to stay competitive against the UFC’s upper echelon of fighters. He’s gone 4-4 in his last 8 fights, but his 3 recent losses to Shavkat Rahkmonov, Gilbert Burns, and Ian Garry have all aged nicely.

Magny has a well-rounded set of weapons, but without finishing opponents, it’s difficult to envision him surviving 15 minutes locked in a cage with Malott. He has just 1 finish in his last 11 fights, and even with a +275 price tag attached to his name, I can’t justify taking a shot. 

It feels as though it’s not a matter of if, but when Mike Malott finishes Neil Magny. The 36-year-old Magny isn’t getting any younger, and expecting him to be the one to halt Malott’s hype train feels like a stretch of the imagination. Malott will eventually get Magny to the ground, and Magny has struggled to get back up throughout his career.

Once he goes down, it’s usually the end of the round for him, and against a finisher like Malott, it will be the end of the fight. Instead of playing Malott’s -375 moneyline, let’s make that price a little more favorable by taking Malott to get the finish at -175 odds.

PICK: Mike Malott by Finish  (-175)