UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Betting Preview, Expert Picks and Analysis

UFC 295 is here, and with legacies on the line, many fighters will see the trajectory of their careers get dramatically altered based on Saturday night’s outcomes. Our UFC betting expert has been called in to let you know where to lay down your cold hard cash on Saturday night. 

In the main event, Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira are squaring off for the Light Heavyweight title, after being bumped up from the co-main event slot after Jon Jones was forced off the card due to injury. After a year on the sidelines, Prochazka will be eager to remind the world that he is still the king of the division, while Pereira will look to become the 10th double champ in UFC history. In the co-main event, the interim Heavyweight belt is on the line as Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich square off in what will surely be an action packed fight. Aspinall has never seen the third round in his career, while Pavlovich hasn’t left the first round since 2017. There will be fireworks.

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UFC 295 Betting Preview, Expert Picks & Analysis

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Bout: Jiri Prochazka (#1) vs Alex Pereira (#3) 

In the main event of the evening, Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1) makes his triumphant return to the octagon after a 17 month hiatus. Prochazka joined the UFC in 2020, after being the longtime champion in Rizin, with a 10 fight win streak under his belt. He wasted no time asserting his authority in the division, scoring a pair of second round knockouts to set up a title shot against Glover Teixiera. Prochazka landed an incredible submission with just 28 seconds left in the 5th round, after being behind on all three scorecards, to win the belt. Unfortunately, he injured his shoulder in the fight, and graciously vacated the title last summer. Prochazka will be eager to get back into the action, but a fight against Alex Pereira (8-2) is not an easy task to navigate.  

Pereira joined the UFC in 2021, and after stringing together three straight wins to begin his time in the promotion, he was fast tracked to a title shot given his extensive kickboxing history with the then champion, Israel Adesanya. After splitting his title fights with Adesanya 1-1, Pereira elected to go up the Light Heavyweight earlier this year. A split decision victory over Jan Blachowicz was enough to grant him this title shot, and he will be locked in on snatching Prochazka’s belt from his grasp. Pereira brings an element of power in his fists we rarely get to see in the UFC. At a moment’s notice, he has the potential to annihilate his opponents, as we saw in his first fight with Adesanya. 

This will be a fun matchup, with plenty on the line. Prochazka loves to mix up his attacks, throwing a variety of elbows, knees, kicks, and spinning attacks. He landed a beautiful spinning backfist on Dominick Reyes to cement himself among the best Light Heavyweights in the world, and will be looking to expose Pereira’s immobile fighting stance in this bout. While Prochazka and Pereira may have similar levels of UFC experience, Prochazka has been fighting at a high level of mixed martial arts for over a decade, while Pereira is still very inexperienced, with just 10 fights under his belt. However, Pereira’s extensive kickboxing experience will come into play in what should be a fight that stays upright for long stretches. 

This fight has plenty of question marks surrounding it, but the right side to bet on couldn’t be more clear. Prochazka is coming in as a slight underdog, and I will be grabbing that line while it’s still available. While this is his first fight since overcoming a nasty shoulder injury, there is no reason to expect him to do anything but pick up where he left off. The variety of attacks Prochazka throws will be the difference maker, as against a counter striker like Pereira, if the Brazilian can’t predict what Prochazka will throw, it will be very difficult to find his own success. It’s understandable that there is some skepticism with Prochazka, but he is still five years younger than Pereira, and this line is being heavily influenced by recency bias. Prochazka still hasn’t lost a fight since 2015, and a 36-year-old, very predictable Pereira will not be the man to end that streak. I’m expecting a back and forth first round, before Prochazka reminds the world that he still belongs on the throne of the Light Heavyweight division, with a mid-round knockout.

Best Bet: Jiri Prochazka to Win (+110)

UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship Bout: Sergei Pavlovich (#2) vs Tom Aspinall (#4)

In the wake of the Jone Jones cancellation, Sergei Pavlovich (18-1) and Tom Aspinall (13-3) have been thrust up the pecking order, and have been given a chance to claim UFC gold with an interim title fight while the champion Jones recovers from his injury. 

Pavlovich joined the UFC in 2018, riding a perfect 12-0 record into the world's largest fighting promotion. A first round knockout against Alastair Overeem handed him his first professional loss in his UFC debut, but he has since rattled off six straight first round knockouts to set up his fight with Aspinall. Yes, six straight first round knockouts. Impressive finishes over the knockout king Derrick Lewis, and perennial contenders Tai Tuivasa and Curtis Blaydes will have Pavlovich confident he can add Aspinall to his resume, and the Heavyweight belt that goes with it. When Pavlovich smells blood, the fight is usually over. He lands crisp jabs and disguises his upper cuts like few others in the Heavyweight division, and once he gets his opponents on the ropes, he refuses to relent his ground and pound, and will force the referee to intervene. Power is nothing special at Heavyweight, but the explosiveness in Pavlovich’s punches are truly remarkable. Against Aspinall, if the straight punches aren’t finding their mark, he may be forced to expand the methods of his attack, but so far in his UFC career he hasn’t needed to mix it up with kicks, as his power punches have consistently been able to find a home. 

Aspinall will certainly be taking this fight against Pavlovich very seriously, but he won’t be deterred as he has been on a thunderous run of form himself. His 13 career wins have all been finishes, and he announced his arrival to the UFC with a 45-second knockout over Jake Collier in his 2020 debut. That started a run of 4 straight finishes in 14 months (2 knockouts and 2 submissions) to set up his first main event slot, and he made no mistake, submitting Alexander Volkov in the first round. A 2022 loss to Curtis Blaydes via knee injury 15 seconds into the fight halted his momentum, but he got back in the win column exactly a year later with another quick finish over Marcin Tybura in July of this year. Aspinall is much more well rounded compared to Pavlovich. Not only will he lean on the takedown when the opportunity presents itself, but his ability to mix it up on the feet keeps his opponent’s guessing, and allows him to pick his shots at the right moment. Two of his finishes have come via a knee to the body followed up by a couple crisp head strikes, while he also succeeds by mixing in a takedown just when his opponent assumes they are engaging in a firefight. 

In this enormous Heavyweight fight, I will side with the British fighter Aspinall to use his creativity to find a way to win. Several times throughout his UFC tenure, he’s clearly been listening to his coaches during the fight, and staying patient rather than chasing the huge finish. Pavlovich has been able to land clean punches in every UFC appearance since his debut, but if Aspinall can survive the first round Pavlovich may find himself in unfamiliar territory. There is no doubt in my mind that Pavlovich has what it takes to end this one early, but Aspinall has a knack for surviving any hairy situations, staying calm, and turning the fight in his favor. Pavlovich tends to telegraph his power punches, but against the shifty Aspinall he will not have the same success just standing and teeing off against his opponent. When he inevitably gets overexcited, Aspinall will happily lay him firmly on his back, and get to work on the ground. I believe Apsinall’s best asset is his stand up game, but against such a one dimensional fighter like Pavlovich, he will take the fight to the mat, and overwhelm him there. The +350 odds available on Aspinall’s submission are certainly worth a look, but given his tendency to get ground and pound stoppages, I’ll play it safe and stick to his more than reasonable moneyline price.

PICK: Tom Aspinall to Win (-125)

Women’s Straw-weight Main Card Bout: Jessica Andrade (#5) vs Mackenzie Dern (#7)

The lone female fight on the main card of UFC 295 features former champion Jessica Andrade (24-12) taking on Mackenzie Dern (13-3). Andrade made her UFC debut all the way back in 2013 as a 21-year-old prospect. She was unable to build early momentum, going 4-3 through her first seven fights, but a three-fight win streak in 2017 allowed her to challenge for the title against Joanna Jedrzejczyk. It was a competitive fight, but Andrade was unable to keep up with the champion on the feet. She rebounded with four straight wins including a Strawweight championship over Rose Namajunas in 2019, but with her better years behind her at 32 years old she is running out of time for another title run. She’s dropped three straight fights heading into her UFC 295 matchup, losing twice by submission and once via knockout. However, with this being her fifth fight of the year, she has the capabilities to quickly snowball a single win into a winning streak capable of granting her the fifth title shot of her career (1-3 in title fights thus far). She is very well rounded with nine knockouts, eight submissions, and seven decisions, but she can also get beat anywhere in the cage, with five knockout losses, four losses via submission, and three decisions that did not go her way. Against Dern, she will have the advantage on the feet and will want to stay off the mat against Dern’s dangerous submission game, and a convincing victory could springboard her back into the title picture. 

Dern has been in the UFC since 2018, amassing a respectable 8-3 record since her debut. Due to poor timing, her solid win streaks have never resulted in a title shot, and the talented jiu jitsu specialist has now alternated wins and losses in her last five fights. Most recently, a solid decision victory over Angela Hill has her sitting seventh in the Strawweight rankings, but with many of the women ahead of her in the rankings already having been granted a previous title shot, it won’t take many victories for Dern to get her chance. Her 13 career victories are split between seven submissions and six decisions, with her three losses all coming via the judge’s scorecards. She has never been finished in her career, but with the high volume striker Andrade standing across from her, she will need to mind her P’s and Q’s on the feet to avoid getting caught flush by something thrown her way. 

Andrade is very well rounded anywhere this one goes, but if she lets Dern get into a dominant position on the mat, this fight will be over quickly for her. Dern needs just an inch of space to capitalize on any grappling mistakes her opponents make, and at UFC 295, I expect her to find that space, and get the submission. Andrade is no stranger to getting finished, as her last four defeats have all come before the final bell, and against Dern she will once again find herself on the losing side. Andrade has dropped three straight fights to competition at or below Dern’s level, and there is absolutely no reason to believe Dern will not make it four straight. She’s coming in as a -185 favorite, and that is a good price to pay for her against the free falling Andrade.

PICK: Mackenzie Dern to Win (-185)