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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction: Tampa Bay Predicted to Win Wednesday's NHL Matchup [4/9/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Our expert prediction for Wednesday's Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto mapleleafs will lock horns in the NHL at Amalie Arena on Wednesday, with puck drop at 7:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of today's game.
"Our team has simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Toronto-Tampa Bay game 10,000 times," said Mac Douglass from Dimers.
"With the latest updates and numerous other variables, we estimate the Lightning's chance of winning at 60%, with the Maple Leafs at 40%."
For further insights into Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions page.
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Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 60% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6 goals has a 52% chance of going over.
Pre-Game Probabilities
Last Updated: 11:15PM, Apr 9
Moneyline
Over / Under
Puck Line
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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-160) | -1.5 (+136) |
| Moneyline | +160 | -184 |
| Total | o6 (-110) | u6 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Picks and Best Bets
Our model's biggest edge in today's Maple Leafs vs. Lightning matchup is on the moneyline.
Our expert predictions, aligned with the latest odds, reveal the best NHL picks and NHL best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Unlock Every Maple Leafs-Lightning Pick Get Dimers Pro Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Player Props
Who will score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Tampa Bay's Brayden Point is most likely to score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Point a 9.8% chance of scoring the first goal at Amalie Arena, while the Lightning star is a 46.0% chance of netting an anytime goal.
First Goal Scorer Predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 9.1% |
| John Tavares | 6.0% |
| William Nylander | 5.4% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 9.8% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 7.2% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.6% |
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 42.3% |
| William Nylander | 30.3% |
| John Tavares | 30.2% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 46.0% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 40.1% |
| Brandon Hagel | 34.2% |
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Game-Day Updates and Essential Details
Wednesday's game between the Lightning and Maple Leafs at Amalie Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Wednesday, April 9, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Amalie Arena
Dimers.com's full preview of Wednesday's Maple Leafs vs. Lightning matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Toronto vs. Tampa Bay picks, be sure to check out the latest NHL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Wednesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
More on NHL
Keep up with the latest NHL betting news and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds provide the latest predictions for the Stanley Cup title.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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