Week 13 of the NFL season kicks off with the Thanksgiving Day slate, featuring the Detorit Lions vs. Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants and Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins. With an isolated three-game slate, some strong NFL trends in player performances can provide valuable insights for sports bettors.

That's why we've highlighted the top 10 betting trends for NFL Thanksgiving Da tot help you make informed NFL bets this week. These trends highlight a range of player performances across multiple teams, from consistent rushing yard totals and touchdown counts to surprising underperformances in receiving yards.

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Top-10 NFL Betting Trends, Lines & Odds - Thanksgiving Day

By analyzing NFL trends and examining each player’s recent stats, bettors can gain insights into how certain players might fare in their upcoming matchups. Here, we’ve compiled the top 10 trends to watch this week, with betting angles that could provide an edge in the constantly shifting landscape of the NFL. All of these trends are sourced via Dimers Pro and come in at an 80% hit rate or higher.

1. D'Andre Swift OVER 12.5 Rushing Attempts

Game: Bears @ Lions

Trend: 10 of last 10

Emerging as an every-down threat, Bears RB D'Andre Swift has largely been the team's workhorse this season. Backup Roschon Johnson has gotten his share of work in recent weeks, but hasn't done enough to truly cut into Swift's status. With the exception of Week 1, Swift has cleared this mark in every game, including both blowouts and close games, suggesting the OVER is line to strike again regardless of game script vs. formidable Detroit.

Odds: -108 (FanDuel)

2. Josh Jacobs OVER 72.5 Rushing Yards

Game: Packers vs. Dolphins

Trend: 5 of last 5

One inefficient game in Week 6 stopped what what have been a run of seven-straight games of hitting this mark for Jacobs, who's managed to clear this nine times this season. His volume plays a big role, as every game he's had 20+ carries, he's smashed 100 rushing yards so if he gets a full workload on the ground against a solid Dolphins passing defense, there's no reason this shouldn't keep up. 

Odds: -110 (bet365)

3. Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown

Game: Lions vs. Bears

Trend: 8 of last 9

One of the league's premier scorers who is featured in our Thanksgiving Day Touchdown Parlay, Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is nothing short of a scoring machine, having just had his first scoreless game in 9 weeks. He went eight-straight games with a touchdown, including a pair of them last week. He has the second-most WR touchdowns in the game right now and he could be in line for another productive day on Thanksgiving against division rival Chicago.

Odds: -110 (FanDuel)

4. Dontayvion Wicks UNDER 35.5 Receiving Yards

Game: Packers vs. Dolphins

Trend: 6 of last 7

At best a third option in this Packers' crowded wide receiver room, Dontayvion Wicks has only hit this yardage total in one game since Week 4. He's had more than 3 targets in just two games since then, going 3 of 6 and 2 of 7 in those games. With Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs ahead of him plus an efficient run game, Wicks is an afterthought in need of a big play to come close to this mark, presenting a good look at the Under for some value.

Odds: -105 (DraftKings)

5. Jonnu Smith OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards

Game: Dolphins @ Packers

Trend: 6 of last 7

It's not Tyreek Hill who's been thriving since QB Tua Tagovailoa returned for Miami, but veteran TE Jonnu Smith, who's seen 6+ targets 6 of his past 7 games, and as many as 19 total looks over his past 2, going for nearly 200 yards in those two contests combined. The Packers present a more difficult task for Miami, but as they're likely to try and contain Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Smith should be able to see his complementary workload that's paid dividends over the past two months of the season against a Packers defense allowing 57.5 yards per game to tight ends.

Odds: -110 (bet365)

6. Jameson Williams OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards

Game: Lions vs. Bears

Trend: 5 of last 6

When you have receptions of 64, 50, 52 and 70 yards this season, it's not hard to see why Jameson Williams has cleared this mark so frequently. He's the definition of "boom or bust" as his two games he's gone under, he recorded -4 and 9 yards, however his ability to hit this mark on a single catch means he's never counted out. His target share is up, seeing 18 passes over his past three games, the first stretch of the seasons in which he's caught at least 3 passes and had 5+ targets in each.

Odds: -110 (bet365)

7. Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards

Game: Lions vs. Bears

Trend: 5 of last 6

Though he's part of a one-two punch in the Lions backfield, Jahmyr Gibbs has excelled this season and at 886 yards through 11 games, is on pace to cruise past his yardage total of 945 from his rookie season. Two games barely under this number have kept him from 10-straight games to the over on this line. He's blew past it in several games,, nothing totals of 116, 127 and 90 in that span and is averaging a beefy 5.8 yards per carry this season. His ability to create explosive plays should keep the Bears on their toes, opening the door for another Gibbs smash spot.

Odds: -113 (FanDuel)

8. Jordan Love UNDER 6.5 Rushing Yards

Game: Packers vs. Dolphins

Trend: 4 of last 5

It's not your typical rushing trend, but if our model finds an opportunity, it will highlight that trend. Packers QB Jordan Love will scramble when needed, but isn't known as a mobile QB. He's had just one game with any true carries in the past five games, with tallies of 2, 0, -1, and 0 in the four games he's gone under recently. The Dolphins are allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards to opposing QBs this season, highlighting this Under as another strong trend.

Odds: -110 (bet365)

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9. Amon- Ra St. Brown UNDER 72.5 Receiving Yards

Game: Lions vs. Bears

Trend: 4 of last 5

Yes, Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the most proficient scorers in the NFL and an unquestionable Top 5 talent at wide receiver. However, the Lions' penchant for the run often means Amon-Ra isn't always a major volume guy and often seeing some quick passes underneath. That hasn't kept him from scoring, but it does push his yardage total down. While he has three 100-yard games this season, he's only gone over this number in 4 games in 2024.

Odds: -113 (FanDuel)

10. Tua Tagovailoa OVER 22.5 Passing Completions

Game: Dolphins @ Packers

Trend: 4 of last 5

Our final trend is on Tua Tagovailoa, QB for the Miami Dolphins to keep his solid completion percentage up. His two games under this mark this season came with low column (25 and 28 passing attempts) while he's thrown 35+ in four games. He's over in 4/5 since his return from a concussion and has a 73.3% completion rate this season. 

Odds: -114 (FanDuel)

Final Thoughts

These trends for NFL Week 13 provide a range of insights for NFL props bettors. By analyzing past performance and considering defensive matchups, bettors can use these trends as a valuable resource when placing wagers. Whether it’s banking on Jahmyr Gibbs' rushing prowess or fading star Amon-Ra's yardage total, these prop bets are set to provide excitement and, potentially, a profitable Week 13.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Week 13 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 13 matchup, including Thanksgiving and the Chiefs-Raiders Black Friday game.
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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