TNF Betting Strategy for Buccaneers vs. Bills

Buccaneers vs. Bills 8:15PM ET

BET 1: $5 on Under 44 points to win $154.55 (via Bet365)

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But we still like finding winners here at Dimers, so that's exactly what we're going to do. For Thursday night we're taking the under in this battle of good defenses.

Not only are Thursday Night games notorious for those unders hitting, but we're also looking at a pair of defenses that know how to stifle their opponents. The Bills and Bucs have the fifth and sixth-ranked defenses in terms of total points allowed per game, with an average of less than two touchdowns given up per game. In recent weeks, the Bills have struggled to get going offensively against the Patriots and pitiful Giants, so a Bucs defensive squad that has been great all year should keep things low.

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BET 2: $5 on Gabe Davis First Touchdown Scorer to Win $255 (via FanDuel)

Let's take a shot at a nice payout with our favorite First TD scorer on Thursday.

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For our play, we're not looking at the Alpha WR1 of the Bills much like the Buccaneers' defense will be tonight. Instead, we're looking at WR2 Gabe Davis, who gets a respectable 9.2% probability to score first in this game, along with a little value in his odds at +1100 on FanDuel, which imply an 8.3% chance.

Davis has scored first for Buffalo twice this year and his odds are double that of Diggs, while his percentage is just 3% lower. Todd Bowles will scheme to take Diggs out of the game and regardless of whether or not he succeeds, Davis should be able to get open.

A $5 bet on Davis to score first would return us $55. But even if it doesn't win, we'll secure those $200 in bonus bets to use!

BET 3: $5 on James Cook Over 50.5 Rush Yards to win $204.35 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

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For this play, we're going to wrap it up by taking the Over on Bills' running back James Cook's rushing yards prop, one our model likes with a 65.0% probability. 

Cook's gone over this number in four of six contests, coming up five yards shy in Week 1. He's their go-to back, even with Latavius Murray siphoning away some touches. The Bucs' defense has been pretty stout against the run, but is coming off a game where they allowed 156 on the ground to a Falcons team that didn't play Bijan Robinson.

Regardless of whether the under hits or not, DraftKings Sportsbook will credit your account with $200 in bonuses once you make your first $5 bet, plus you'll get additional No Sweat Bet tokens to use for the rest of the season.

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