Three Plus-Money Player Props You Need to Bet on in Heat vs. Nuggets Game 4

The NBA Finals roll on as we enter Game 4 with the Nuggets up 2-1 in the series. The Heat battled back for a gritty win in Game 2 but looked heavily outmatched in Game 3. They’ll want to even things up before heading back to Denver with the possibility of elimination, so expect a closer game tonight.

We’re not interested in taking a side in this one however, as we don’t get much value on the Heat to win at +140, so we’re looking at the player prop markets to find our best prices in Game 4. Be sure to check out our Game 4 Predictions and Betting Preview for the most insights into the lines, props and how to find your edges.

MORE: Best Bets Today for All Sports – Friday, June 9

You’ll also want to go and sign up at BetMGM Sportsbook before dropping any wagers on Game 4. New users can bet any of these props and get up to $1,000 back if their first bet loses. If you’re betting from Iowa, don’t sleep on bet365 either, where new users can score $365 in bonus bets off their first $1 wager to celebrate the sportsbook’s launch in the state. If you’re signed up for these books already, use our Best Sportsbooks page to find the promos you can jump on tonight.

Let’s check out the three props you should bet on in this Game 4 clash, along with which book has the best odds, a Dimers.com specialty.

Three Plus-Money Props You Need to Bet in Game 4

Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 Assists (+110) on BetMGM

This was our absolute favorite prop in Game 3 and we’re running it right back again. We smashed his Over 2.5 at a massive +145 value, proving the 22% edge we found was no fluke. Gordon has been an integral part of this Nuggets playoff run and is arguably having his best stretch of the postseason so far. He’s hit this mark in 7 of his last 10 games and is playing a premium amount of minutes, leaving plenty of room for opportunity. He’s also been surgical with his passes, having gone four straight games without a turnover.

Tonight, our model again projects him for 5 dimes, though the edge is closer to 15% this time around, which is still great value. Our fair price for this prop would be roughly -150 given the 62% probability given by our projections. We’ve got this prop in our Game 4 Same Game Parlay, but we love it enough to play the value on the straight wager as well.

Jamal Murray Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (+132) on FanDuel

Murray hasn’t hit this mark in his past four games, coming up just short in his last two, however, he did hit at least four threes in the previous four games. The volume has absolutely been there, it’s just a matter of the shots falling. He’s averaging 7 attempts per game in the Finals, after nearly 9 per game in the Western Conference Finals, so we’d like to see a couple more attempts tonight. We’re projecting him to hit four in this one, to go along with a 12.4% edge.

He and Nikola Jokic are coming off one of the best games by a pair of teammates that we’ve ever seen in the Finals and they will want to keep their foot on the gas. It’s hard to turn down the plus-money on offer when we get that much +EV, especially considering his line for 3+ threes is all the way up down to -210.

Jimmy Butler Over 6.5 Assists (+110) on DraftKings

It’s fair to say that Jimmy Buckets hasn’t exactly been a bucket in this series. If it weren’t for Bam Adebayo in these Finals, we’re likely staring down a Nuggets sweep. But that’s okay because we’re not betting on his points in this one. Butler has hit this line in three of his last five games, coming up just one short in one of those misses as well. After averaging just 5.3 assists per game in the regular season, he’s averaging 8.5 per game in the Finals and 8.0 over his last ten playoff games.

Good ol’ DimersBOT projects Jimmy for 7.8 assists in Game 4, giving us just under a 10% edge. It’s going to take contributions from everyone on the Heat to stave off the 3-1 deficit and we see no reason to start fading Jimmy as a passer after it’s been a key part of his game. Fair odds from our model would be around -135.

Find out who we're betting on for every basketball game, every day via our NBA Bet Hub, where we deliver you NBA predictions and suggested bets, or check out the NBA Betting News section.

 

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