Three MLB Futures Markets You Need to Invest in before the Odds Move

This baseball season is rolling right along and before you know it, we’ll be at the All-Star Break. Wild to think about but here we are already. Depending on when you read this, the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Final could be all wrapped up, leaving the next few months to primarily bet on The Boys of Summer.

Betting on MLB futures is a great way to have some skin in the game as those battles unfold. Riding the highs and lows with your favorite team or a Cinderella underdog can make the season that much more exciting, especially when it’s a ticket that gives you something to root for all the way to the season’s final day.

We’re using the power of our A.I. model’s predictive analytics to isolate bets from three different MLB futures markets that we think you should make based on the value identified by our model.

MORE: Our latest MLB Futures Probabilities and Best Odds

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Invest in the American League Winner

Outlook: The American League is a mixed bag. The AL West and AL East combined have just two teams under .500 and one of them is the abysmal Oakland Athletics, while the other is the Seattle Mariners. The division is seemingly wide open between the top three teams: the Rangers, Astros and Angels, though the Angels get just a 6.8% probability from our model. To further illustrate the divide, Los Angeles sits at +1200 to bring home the division crown while the Lone Star teams are neck and neck at +110.

The AL East looks all but wrapped up at this point. The Rays jumped out to one of the hottest starts in MLB history, have the best record in MLB and look to be the first team to reach 50 wins. The Yankees, Blue Jays and Orioles are all competitive teams, but no matter what, they have been unable to close the gap with Tampa Bay, who are an eye-opening -360 to win the division.

MORE: Five MLB Prop Markets We Need

The AL Central is a pitiful division. The Twins are a .500 team sitting at the top of the table and they'd be in last place in the AL East based on record alone. Although they have a 65.9% probability to take home the division title, the Guardians sit behind them at 31-34 for +270. If you need some action here, then take a flier on the Guardians at a 25.3% probability to win, but truthfully, this is a stay-away market due to the unpredictable nature of underperforming mid-tier teams.

Best Bet: Rangers to win the American League, 10.6% probability (+650 on BetMGM)

The Rangers have done a fantastic job of building a winning roster. Making a pair of blockbuster moves two seasons ago when they acquired Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, they’ve continued to add talent, including current AL Rookie of the Year frontrunner Josh Jung. They’ve proved they can hang with and beat the best, as evidenced by their AL West best record and the fact that they took two out of three games against AL titan Tampa Bay this past week. They have the highest run differential in baseball at +149.

This division could see some big swings in the coming weeks, with the Rangers kicking off a series with division rivals Los Angeles this week and Houston before June comes to a close.  If you think the Rangers have a strong chance to emerge with a series win, you have to bet them now before they gain a bigger lead on the Astros. Additionally, the Astros who are at just +380 to win the AL West, would surely see their price drop, giving you a much better price on them than they have now.

Invest in the National League Division Winners

Outlook: The National League has a bit clearer disparity between the good and the bad as there are a few teams in the mid-tier right now. The Mets and Phillies have rosters full of talent well above their current sub-.500 records, but they can’t get out of their own way. The Brewers have let their division lead slip away and now sit two games behind the Pirates who have had one season over .500 in the past  seven years. The Marlins have shown sparks and sit just 3.5 games back of the Braves in the NL East, but just had a stretch where they got to beat up on the two worst records in baseball, Kansas City and Oakland, but still have a -20 run differential.

None of these teams appear to pass the eye test against the upper echelon of the National League like the Braves, Dodgers and even the Diamondbacks who currently have a 3.5-game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West. In fact, the Dodgers and Braves are the only two teams who get a double-digit probability from DimersBOT to win the National League.

Best Bets: Diamondbacks to Win NL West, 15.8% probability (+480 on FanDuel) and Pirates to Win NL Central, 15.8% probability (+550 on DraftKings)

It’s not just the eye test either. The three shortest odds to win the National League are the Braves +190, Dodgers at +270 and then a massive drop off to the sub-.500 Padres at +900. The books are all over the disparity in these teams and as such, there’s no value at the top of the board, and we realistically don’t see the NL Pennant winner being any team besides these two.

RELATED: Why Shohei Ohtani Needs to Be In Your Next Parlay

The Brewers may be -110 to win the NL Central but they’re in second place and don’t inspire confidence. A Pirates collapse is always in the cards, but for +550 to win as the current division leader, we can’t say no, especially when their odds are right in line with our model’s probability.

The Diamondbacks find themselves in a similar situation, albeit contending with an opponent much better than the Brewers. The NL West will be the Dodgers’ to lose until they are finally dethroned, but the D-Backs have momentum and a lead. They were as far as +900 earlier in this season and don’t appear to be slowing down right now.

Don’t like either of these teams? Parlay the Dodgers and Brewers to win their respective divisions for +161 on DraftKings.

Invest in the World Series Winner and Matchup

Best Outright Bet: Astros to Win the World Series, 18.7% probability (+750 on DraftKings)

Our model has given four teams a double-digit probability to win the World Series: the Astros (18.7%), Braves (15%), Dodgers (15%) and Rays (12.7%).

The Astros are an astounding value on the board, getting the least amount of love from the books at +750, compared to the Braves’ shortest odds of +450. Those odds for Houston imply just an 11.8% probability, so we get 7% of an edge on the books. The Astros are reigning champs and it’s hard to ignore getting +EV on a team of their pedigree.

Best Matchup Bet: Braves vs. Rays in the World Series (+920 on FanDuel)

Yes, the Astros have a higher probability and better odds to win the World Series, but it doesn’t make sense to take an already strong bet and risk it with an extra leg. Additionally, we wouldn’t recommend doubling down on the Astros if you’re already taking them to win the World Series. If you are passing on them to win outright, then you can consider pairing them with the Braves or Dodgers here, both at +1280.

With Tampa Bay at +240 and the Braves at +190 to win AL and NL Pennants, we’re taking them out to +920 with this parlay, needing the same result. If they can both continue on this path, we’ll open up alternate hedge opportunities down the line this season where we can bet on other matchups at longer odds, giving us more than a few ways to get leverage in the World Series matchup.

Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game, every day via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions and suggested bets, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

Remember to gamble responsibly and set limits on your wagers. It's important to enjoy the game while maintaining control. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and if you feel like gambling is becoming a problem, seek help. Practice responsible gambling and make informed decisions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.