The NBA Finals Matchups You Need to Bet on During the First Round

The NBA Playoffs are underway, with sixteen teams battling it out to reach the NBA Finals and be crowned champion of the Association. The Lakers, Timberwolves, Heat and Hawks punched their play-in tickets and now look to upset one of the top seeds in the first round.

After Game 1 victories, the Lakers and Heat are in position to take control of their respective Round 1 series and as a result, there have been some shifts in the NBA Futures market. With the playoff field at its largest right now, this is the time to zero in on some futures tickets so you can have a dog in the fight all the way through the NBA Finals.

RELATED: NBA First Round Playoff Predictions

To capitalize on the value we find in this market, be sure to take advantage of the sign-up bonuses offered by the best sportsbooks available to you. DraftKings is giving new users $150 in bonus bets after their first $5 wager, whereas BetMGM will give you up to $1,000 back on your first bet if it loses. Use our Best Sportsbooks page to see every offer you can use.

Understanding NBA Futures

If you’re unfamiliar, the term “futures market” refers to wagers you can place on outcomes that will happen further down the line, such as championships, division winners and award recipients. This can be one of the most profitable markets for bettors, as you’re traditionally capitalizing on plus-money odds and sometimes big longshots.

Over the course of the season, any number of factors can influence futures odds, from small shifts to massive swings. Using those influencing factors and the posted odds, we can glean information to identify where we should be betting our money.

Let’s look at where to find the best value in the NBA market in the midst of Round 1.

RELATED: NBA Playoff Game-by-Game Predictions

How to Bet the NBA Futures Market

Analyzing three different markets will give us the most insight into where we should invest our NBA futures money, so we’re breaking down the Western Conference Finals, Eastern Conference Finals and the NBA Finals. Using our cutting-edge predictive analytics, we’ll compare our model’s probabilities against the odds on the books to find an edge.

Eastern Conference Champion

Takeaways: Not a lot of value in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks are way overpriced with an 11.33% discrepancy from our model. The injury concerns surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo make the Bucks a risky play. The Celtics also have no value, which is not uncommon when it comes to betting on a favorite.

As one of the East's best teams, the Sixers' fair price makes them a play, especially when paired with the Western Conference champion, which we'll get into below.

Though they are a longshot, our model gives the Miami Heat double the chances to advance to the NBA Finals, making them a nice play on their own at +4200. 

We left the Nets and Hawks out of this because they face an extremely uphill battle just to get out of the first round. Plus, if you really think they have a chance, their incredibly long odds are worth a tiny sprinkle as standalone bets, but manage your expectations.

Western Conference Champion

Even with a 2-0 series lead over the Warriors, our fair price for the Kings is closer to +1600. We dove into this in-depth following Game 2, which you can read here.

Mathematically the Timberwolves offer sound value, but if you've watched Minnesota lately, they severely lack the makings of a championship-caliber team. Odds of +20000 will net you $200 off just a $1 bet however, so have a little fun for some lunch money if you're a true believer.

NBA Finals Matchups to Bet On

Based on the conference winners we’ve found to be good or fair value, here are the NBA Finals matchups we recommend betting on:

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets
Top-tier teams in each conference and great value.

Best price: +2000 on DraftKings

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron and Co. have the third-highest probability in the West to make the Finals.

Best price: +2600 on FanDuel

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Denver Nuggets

Pairing the Cavaliers with any Western Conference opponent is a sound strategy.

Best price: +7800 on DraftKings

Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets

The best-valued team in each conference.

Best price: +16000 on FanDuel

Finals Rematches

While the value isn't nearly as great as some of the ones highlights above, we had some fun and found the best price for a rematch of each of the last three NBA Finals:

2022 Finals: Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors +1550 on DraftKings

2021 Finals: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns +829 on DraftKings

2020 Finals: Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers +27000 on FanDuel

Looking for more NBA betting insights? Head over to our Best Props and Best Bets pages to see the top value for daily action, or use our Best Trends feature to find your own plays to target. If you want to cook up a parlay for a larger payout, try our Parlay Picker tool to get creative! Everything we offer is completely free and powered by our state-of-the-art predictive analytics models that run 1000s of simulations to help you make the most informed betting decisions you can.