The Lionel Messi Effect: How a Worldwide Superstar Turned Sports and Betting Culture on its Head

What changes when a larger-than-life superstar like Lionel Messi joins an MLS expansion team like Inter Miami? In short, everything. Messi rocked the worldwide soccer world when he announced his intention to leave Paris Saint-Germain F.C. to join Major League Soccer in the United States.

The visual impact was immediate. From betting odds to ticket prices and social media followers, Inter Miami became the center of the sports universe, a vortex pulling in anything and everything bold enough to challenge the Messi to Miami news cycle.

Before David Beckham joined MLS in 2007, the league was an afterthought in the United States. Now, an expansion team can dominate the sports world. One of the biggest football stars of the world and a household name amongst even tangential fans, Beckham energized Major League Soccer and is an integral part of the league’s history. It’s probably not a pure coincidence either that Beckham has an ownership stake in Inter Miami as part of his original deal when he came to the MLS.

It’s no doubt an exciting time for sports fans, whether they’re MLS die-hards or Messi loyalists. This is going to more eyes to the league, generate more domestic hype for Major League Soccer and of course, generate revenue. Let’s look at some major ripple effects of the Argentinian star joining Inter Miami.

Inter Miami’s MLS Cup Odds Shift

It’ll be interesting to see how much of an impact Messi has on Inter Miami. It may not be immediately clear how the team will adjust and may take beyond just the remainder of the current season. The club sits at the bottom of the table in the Eastern Conference.

Before the Messi announcement, Inter Miami was at +25000 or 250/1 to win the MLS Cup.  They have just five wins on the year and sit seven points behind C.F. Montreal for the ninth and final playoff spot in the East. After the announcement? +2200. That’s not a mistake; last place Inter Miami’s odds saw more than a 90% drop in value with just the news that Messi would join the club.

We don’t need to explain how astronomical a drop that is. Not even Tom Brady in his prime joining the Cleveland Browns, or LeBron James joining Miami (oh wait that did happen) would see that kind of movement. This is truly a one-of-a-kind scenario.

MORE: MLS Game-By-Game Predictions

From a realistic standpoint, it’s a liability reducer for the sportsbooks. They simply can’t have a team with a talent on Lionel Messi’s level sit at 250/1 odds to win. This is a team that got a 0.2% probability from our model to win the title pre-Messi. We can’t get a truly accurate simulation for the remainder of the season with Messi’s debut up in the air, but it’s simply too long of a price for them to take bets on and let it lie. This movement has put Inter Miami’s odds firmly in a “do not bet” zone, although there will assuredly be some die-hards taking Miami at any price.

MLS Leading Goalscorer Odds Shift

Inter Miami’s futures odds was not the only market that has seen a significant impact of Messi’s impending arrival. Look no further than the leading goalscorer market on DraftKings to see his odds to lead the MLS in goals scored. He opened at +4000 which may not seem so crazy on its own, but when you consider he has shorter odds than players who not only have already tallied their fair share of goals but also have weeks before he steps onto the MLS pitch, it’s a little eyebrow-raising.

The favorites all sit in the neighborhood of +300 and for good reason; four players currently have 10 goals apiece: Denis Bouanga, Hany Mukhtar, Jesus Ferreira and Giorgos Giakoumakis. Even at 35 years old, Messi is capable of outscoring these younger stars, but with a 10-goal head start? We remain skeptical. Assuming the current leaders stay on their goalscoring pace, from a mathematical standpoint, Messi would need to score in every match he plays with multiple goals in a few of them.

Granted, if Messi comes out firing in his TBD debut with a brace (two goals) or even a hat trick, this price would drop sharply, so if you want to ride the Messi rollercoaster then you have to bet this now. He did score seven goals in the matter of just a few weeks in the World Cup, after all, so maybe 40/1 isn’t as short as it seems for a guy who has yet to play in the MLS.

The Instagram Effect

Think the Messi Effect’s biggest impact was on sports betting? Think again, as within just 24 hours, Inter Miami’s Instagram following catapulted from a respectable 1 million followers to an astounding *6 million followers.* That number is still on the rise as the club sits at 8.2 million followers as of this writing.

That’s more than any NFL team in the United States. The Dallas Cowboys (4.2M) and New England Patriots (4.7M) are the only two teams north of the 4 million mark.

In fact, Inter Miami’s 8M+ is good enough for the fifth-highest Instagram following amongst all U.S.-based sports teams:

1. Golden State Warriors (30.6M)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (22.8M)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (15.7M)
4. Chicago Bulls (9.7M)
5. Inter Miami (8.2M)

If only we could build our bankrolls at that rate.

Impact on Inter Miami Ticket Prices

While we said the price for Inter Miami’s title odds jumped to a price far too short, the ticket prices for Inter Miami’s upcoming matches are anything but. Almost immediately following the news break, the cheapest tickets for Messi’s probable debut with the club skyrocketed from $29 to $459 on the secondary market.

Since then, the average price of a ticket has risen to about $2,600. Here’s how that compares to some tickets you could find for other marquee events on the calendar:

• 2022 World Series Game 4: $833
• Taylor Swift’s “Eras” Tour (Levi’s Stadium): $1,441
• 2022 World Cup Final: $1,607
• Super Bowl LVII: $4,372

And with Messi’s debut yet to be confirmed, fans jumping on these tickets could in for a surprise if Messi debuts at a different match and all of a sudden their ticket is worth a whopping thirty bucks on the resell market. We want to see Messi tear up the MLS pitch as much as any sane sports fan, but we can’t fathom dropping this kind of cash just to get in the stadium.

Maybe if we smash tonight’s Round Robin again, however.

 

Find out who we're betting on for every MLS game this weekend via our MLS Bet Hub, where we deliver you soccer predictions and suggested bets, or check out the MLS Betting News section.

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