The 5 Worst College Football Bets This Season

The college football season is nearly here, and our college football Futures model is already pumping out the best (and more importantly, the worst) values you can find before the season begins. Today we deep dive on the five college football Futures bets with the largest negative edges that you should avoid this season.

Today's bets span multiple conferences, focusing on teams from the SEC, Big 12, ACC, Pac 12 and even the American conferences. It won't be long before our Saturdays are filled with college football, so let us help prepare you as much as possible before the season begins!

Now, we know you probably already have an account with one of the leading sportsbooks here in the US, but it definitely pays to have more than one funded account.

Find out which books are best, who has the best new customer offer, and how you can secure better odds and lines for all of your bets, in Dimers' Best US Sportsbooks and Betting Sites section.

*all odds are correct at the time of publishing*

The 5 Worst College Football Bets Ahead of the 2023 Season

1. Texas to Win the Big 12

Fair odds: +258

Actual odds: +120

Edge: -17.48%

We begin our countdown in the Big 12, where DimersBOT isn't buying the Ewers/Manning era Longhorns just yet. After taking Alabama down to the wire last season, there is optimism in Austin, but there's also still work left to be done. After all, this team finished with five losses last season.

The Big 12 is one of the most competitive conference in all of college sports, and Oklahoma won't be down for forever. Replacing do-it-all superstar running back Bijan Robinson is easier said than done, and there is plenty of work to do for Texas to avoid underachieving for the first season in a long time. With a negative 17% edge, this is our model's worst bet of college football season.

MORE: NCAAF Futures

2. LSU to Win the SEC West

Fair odds: +483

Actual odds: +200

Edge: -16.17%

Next week move to the SEC, where LSU is hoping to make another leap forward under second-year head coach Brian Kelly. Kelly led the Tigers to 10 wins last season, which was an impressive debut and has endeared the veteran coach to rabid LSU fans. It hasn't endeared him to DimersBOT, however, who has LSU to win their division as the second worst bet to make before the college football season.

Jayden Daniels is back at quarterback, and there's a lot to like personnel wise for LSU, but there's one very very important reason to believe they won't win the SEC West - they play Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It's tough enough to beat Nick Saban's Tide anywhere else, but our model favors Alabama as the much more profitable bet to make, and for that reason, LSU is a stay away.

MORE: The 5 Best College Football Bets to Make

3. Florida State to Win the ACC

Fair odds: +386

Actual odds: +185

Edge: -14.5%

Next up is Florida State, who seems poised on paper to make a run at an ACC crown. The Seminoles, much like LSU, won 10 games last season and surprised pleasantly under a first year head coach. But there's still a sizable gap between Florida State and the top of this conference, and we are far removed from the Jameis Winston era Seminoles that challenged at a national level.

While many starters are back on both sides of the ball, DimersBOT is selling a Florida State jump this season, as our model believes the Seminoles overachieved last year and are due to crash back to earth. Their actual odds are only +185, which compared to their fair odds of +386, results in one of the worst values on the board.

MORE: Big Ten Betting Preview

4. USC to Win the PAC-12

Fair odds: +414

Actual odds: +200

Edge: -13.9%

Over on the west coast, we take a closer look at the USC Trojans, who were one of the most entertaining teams in all of college football last season under Caleb Williams' leadership. With Lincoln Riley entering his second year at the program (noticing a trend here?), DimersBOT is predicting a step back before a step forward.

It's important to note that USC struggled in their biggest moments last season, memorably two games against Utah and their bowl game loss to Tulane. There's been a re-shuffling on the offensive line, and Caleb Williams will be less comfortable than he was last season. Pair that with hefty competition in the PAC-12 from the likes of Oregon and Utah, and this is one of worst values you can bet in the pre-season.

5. UTSA to Win the American

Fair odds: +2088

Actual odds: +470

Edge: -12.9%

Last but certainly not least, we check out UTSA who is coming off of back to back conference championships....in a different conference. It's always difficult for a program to change leagues, but UTSA heads to the American for 2023, and DimersBOT isn't expecting much.

UTSA has a high-powered offense, but the Roadrunners lost their offensive coordinator, who left to take over Oregon's offense this year. With a large adjustment period expected, DimersBOT thinks these odds should be closer to 20:1 instead of their current 4:1 odds. Stay away!

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