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Lightning vs. Capitals Prediction: Tampa Bay Predicted to Win Saturday's NHL Matchup [3/1/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Our expert prediction for Saturday's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals matchup.
The Washington Capitals will face the Tampa Bay Lightning, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at Capital One Arena on Saturday, commencing at 12:30PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of today's game.
"Our team has used the latest data to run 10,000 simulations of Saturday's Tampa Bay-Washington game," said Mac Douglass from Dimers.
"By incorporating recent updates and various other inputs, we estimate that the Lightning are more likely to win, while the Capitals have a lower chance of victory."
For expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Lightning vs. Capitals predictions page.
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Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL game between the Lightning and Capitals 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 51% chance of beating the Capitals.
According to our model, the Capitals (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6 goals has a 51% chance of going over.
Pre-Game Probabilities
Last Updated: 5:15PM, Mar 1
Moneyline
Over / Under
Puck Line
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Lightning vs. Capitals Odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+215) | +1.5 (-250) |
| Moneyline | -115 | -104 |
| Total | o6 (-105) | u6 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Lightning vs. Capitals Picks and Best Bets
Our model's strongest edge in today's Lightning vs. Capitals matchup is on the puck line.
Our expert predictions, matched against the current odds, reveal the best NHL picks for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Unlock Every Lightning-Capitals Pick Get Dimers Pro Lightning vs. Capitals Player Props
Who will score the first goal in Lightning vs. Capitals?
According to our model, Washington's Alex Ovechkin is most likely to score the first goal in Lightning vs. Capitals.
Our projections give Ovechkin a 7.5% chance of scoring the first goal at Capital One Arena, while the Capitals star is a 34.4% chance of registering an anytime goal.
First Goal Scorer Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 6.9% |
| Jake Guentzel | 6.8% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.8% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 7.5% |
| Tom Wilson | 4.9% |
| Dylan Strome | 4.8% |
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 38.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 33.9% |
| Jake Guentzel | 33.9% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 34.4% |
| Dylan Strome | 25.1% |
| Tom Wilson | 24.8% |
Lightning vs. Caps Game-Day Updates and Essential Details
Saturday's game between the Capitals and Lightning at Capital One Arena is scheduled to commence at 12:30PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals
- Date: Saturday, March 1, 2025
- Time: 12:30PM ET/9:30AM PT
- Venue: Capital One Arena
Dimers.com's comprehensive preview of Saturday's Lightning vs. Capitals matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Tampa Bay vs. Washington picks, be sure to check out the latest NHL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
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Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Capitals on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NHL
Stay informed with the latest NHL betting news, NHL best bets and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds offer the latest projections for the Stanley Cup title.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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