Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2022 Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

The 2022 NFL season is firmly on the horizon and over the coming weeks the Dimers crew will break down the chances of each and every team, all vying for Super Bowl 57 glory in Glendale, Arizona come February.

Let's take a look at the key factors to consider when betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be led by Tom Brady once again, despite the fact that we had a few weeks in which that didn't look like the case. They'll once again be legitimate Super Bowl contenders this season, especially if Chris Godwin returns to form. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win Total Prediction, Computers Picks and Super Bowl Odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• 2021 Record: 13-4, 1st in NFC South (lost in division playoffs to LA Rams)
• 2021 ATS: 10-9
• Key off-season losses: Bruce Arians HC, Rob Gronkowski TE, Jason Pierre-Paul DE, Ronald Jones RB
• Key off-season additions: Shaq Mason OL, Julio Jones WR, Russell Gage WR, Rachaad White RB

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win Total - 11.5

The Buccaneers won the NFC South by four games over New Orleans but there was no repeat postseason magic for Tom Brady & Co. Tampa rolled over Philadelphia in the playoff opener but fell just short in the divisional round to the visiting Rams, 30-27, as time expired.

For a while, it looked like that was it for Brady. He soon announced his retirement, only to go full-on Brett Favre and reverse his decision. Brady’s longtime partner in crime, TE Rob Grankowski, did walk away, as did head coach Bruce Arians who was replaced by former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.

All Brady did last season was lead the No. 1 passing offense in the league (316.6 ypg) and throw for 43 touchdowns — his second-most in a single year — with only 12 interceptions. In two seasons in Tampa, Brady has 83 TDs and 24 INTs while suffering only 43 sacks.

The Bucs missed WR Chris Godwin in the playoffs after he tore his ACL Dec. 19. Godwin re-signed and is expected be 100 percent for the start of the season, forming an impressive receiver room with Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, and new additions Julio Jones and Russell Gage.

An offense that piled up more than 405 yards per game and 511 points in 2021 was dealt a blow early in training camp when Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen suffered a knee injury that will cost him at least several months, if not all of 2022. Robert Hainsey, a third-round pick in 2021 out of Notre Dame, is next man up but is also a little banged up.

On the flip side, the Bucs’ defense also features its share of playmakers and was especially stingy against the run under Bowles, allowing just 92.5 yards per game, good enough for third-best in the league.

DimersBOT: In our model's 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season, the Buccaneers averaged 11.33 wins per year. With that said, we're rolling with the Under on the season win total, but that doesn't mean we don't see this team as a Super Bowl contender. There's more on that below. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers X-Factor - Leonard Fournette, RB

Leonard Fournette has proven to be a nice scrap-heap addition for the Bucs and he certainly helped them win a Super Bowl. There was some concern, however, with his weight heading into the camp and he’s also never played a full season in his career. Tampa Bay is counting on him as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield, and he's also the running back on this team that Brady trusts the most in pass protection. He'll need to be his usual self in order for the Buccaneers to make a run.   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl 57 Chances

Putting cash on Brady can never be questioned. The rest of the teams in the NFC South didn’t do much to make Tampa’s road to the division title more difficult. It’s hard to endorse backing up the truck for Super Bowl odds of +700, but there aren’t a ton of NFC candidates to consider. This is a solid value at this number, even if it might not look like it.  

DimersBOT: Our model gives Tampa Bay the second-best chance at winning the Super Bowl, as the Buccaneers are sitting at 12.8% to win it all. We like this bet a lot.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2022 Schedule 

• September 11, 2022 - at Dallas Cowboys
• September 18, 2022 - at New Orleans Saints
• September 25, 2022 - vs Green Bay Packers
• October 2, 2022 - vs Kansas City Chiefs
• October 9, 2022 - vs Atlanta Falcons
• October 16, 2022 - at Pittsburgh Steelers
• October 23, 2022 - at Carolina Panthers
• October 27, 2022 -  vs Baltimore Ravens
• November 6, 2022 - vs Los Angeles Rams
• November 13, 2022 - vs Seattle Seahawks
• November 27, 2022 - at Cleveland Browns
• December 5, 2022 - vs New Orleans Saints
• December 11, 2022 - at San Francisco 49ers
• December 18, 2022 - vs Cincinnati Bengals
• December 25, 2022 - at Arizona Cardinals
• January 1, 2023 - vs Carolina Panthers
• January 8, 2023 - at Atlanta Falcons