Top Player Props for Colts vs. Vikings in Sunday Night Football featuring Sam Darnold

As the Colts face the Vikings on November 3 in Sunday Night Football, bettors are eyeing a variety of player props with some notable trends to back them up. Leveraging recent stats, we’ve highlighted some of the NFL's Best Propswith the highest probability of success, based on their recent performances.

Whether you’re looking for the reliability of overs or the stability of unders, these player prop picks showcase valuable edges to maximize potential returns.

MORE: NFL Same Game Parlay: Colts vs. Vikings

Player Props: High-Confidence 

Jalen Nailor Over 1.5 Receptions & Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

• Odds: Over 1.5 Receptions (-155), Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
• Probability: 81.6% (Receptions), 74.0% (Receiving Yards)
• Edge: 20.8% (Receptions), 19.4% (Receiving Yards)

Jalen Nailor has been one of the Vikings’ emerging talents, gaining traction over the past few weeks. His role as a secondary target means he’s consistently used on short routes, making him a solid candidate for hitting over 1.5 receptions. Additionally, with a recent trend of surpassing 19.5 receiving yards in five of his last six appearances, the over on receiving yards has a high probability of hitting.

Nailor’s targets and yards per catch have been reliable, suggesting he’ll continue to make an impact on game day. Given the likelihood of a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that has shown weaknesses in covering secondary receivers, Nailor’s overs on both receptions and receiving yards offer attractive options.

Sam Darnold Under 15.5 Rushing Yards & Under 3.5 Rushing Attempts

• Odds: Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-115), Under 3.5 Rushing Attempts (+125)
• Probability: 76.6% (Rushing Yards), 70.3% (Rushing Attempts)
• Edge: 23.1% (Rushing Yards), 25.9% (Rushing Attempts)

Sam Darnold is known more for his arm than his legs, and recent trends reinforce his low likelihood of scrambling. Darnold has consistently stayed under 15.5 rushing yards, with only limited rushing attempts in the majority of his recent starts. His conservative playing style and preference to stay in the pocket support both the unders for rushing yards and attempts.

For those looking for props with solid under value, Darnold’s lack of rushing output is backed by a strong probability. With the Colts’ pass rush more focused on creating pressure than chasing down scramblers, Darnold is likely to stay within the pocket and focus on delivering passes rather than taking off on the ground.

Aaron Jones Under 3.5 Receptions

• Odds: Under 3.5 Receptions (-185)
• Probability: 77.8%
• Edge: 12.9%

Aaron Jones has seen limited involvement in the Packers’ passing game in recent matchups, resulting in fewer than 3.5 receptions in several games. Given the Packers’ typical reliance on other receiving options and Jones’s main focus on the run game, this trend is expected to continue against a solid Vikings defense.

With the probability and edge both in strong territory, the under on 3.5 receptions for Jones appears to be a well-supported bet, especially at a relatively modest -185 odds. The Vikings’ defensive approach likely limits his role in the short passing game, making this prop a high-confidence choice for under bettors.

Jonathan Taylor Under 2.5 Receptions

• Odds: Under 2.5 Receptions (-115)
• Probability: 72.6%
• Edge: 19.1%

Jonathan Taylor has been used as the Colts’ primary rusher, but his involvement in the passing game has been limited. Taylor has recorded fewer than 2.5 receptions in recent games as the Colts favor other players for short passing plays, leaving him with limited targets out of the backfield.

With a probability above 70%, the under on 2.5 receptions aligns well with Taylor’s recent trends. If the Colts continue using Taylor primarily for rushing, this prop should have a high likelihood of hitting.

Player Props: Moderate-Confidence 

Josh Downs Under 5.5 Receptions

• Odds: Under 5.5 Receptions (+120)
• Probability: 62.9%
• Edge: 17.5%

Josh Downs is often involved in short-to-intermediate routes, but he has consistently recorded fewer than 5.5 receptions. With the Colts favoring a spread-out approach in passing, the under on receptions holds good value, especially with plus odds.

Mo Alie-Cox Under 1.5 Receptions

• Odds: Under 1.5 Receptions (-175)
• Probability: 73.4%
• Edge: 9.8%

Alie-Cox is largely a blocking tight end, and his limited targets reflect this. The under on 1.5 receptions is highly supported by his recent usage, offering a safe option for bettors looking for a reliable under.

Jordan Addison Over 3.5 Receptions

• Odds: Over 3.5 Receptions (+126)
• Probability: 55.2%
• Edge: 11.0%

As Addison carves out a role as a key target for the Vikings, his receptions are trending upward. With growing usage, he’s positioned to surpass 3.5 receptions in this matchup, making it a solid choice for over bettors looking for value.

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