Sports Gambling Debate: Luck vs. Skill

Life is filled with challenging questions. Some can (arguably) be solved with enough hard work and thought while others will send theologians and philosophers to their grave still searching for answers. The most obvious examples are extremely complex (like the meaning of life), but even more simple problems, such as the chicken vs. the egg, have continued to plague the greatest thinkers of our time.

Well, I’d like to add one to the list, and then take a crack at explaining it myself. The issue is seemingly simple - a 5 year old could understand the premise - but it’s maddening to understand and even more difficult to solve when put into practice. That question is as follows:

“Was the outcome of a bet based on luck or intelligence?”

To be clear, the question swings both ways. You could also couch it as “was the outcome of your bet based on bad luck or stupidity,” but I chose to go with the positive spin.

To start things off, it’s pretty clear from the outset that this is not an either/or determination. Either the chicken or the egg had to come first, not both at the same time; but sports gambling outcomes are almost always a combination of the two qualities above.

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So, while I’ll try my best to put a thoughtful and meaningful spin at this topic, it wouldn't surprise me if a large number of you read this and said “this guy is an absolute idiot.” I can live with that; I’d rather try and fail than run from a challenge.

So, without further ado, here’s a deep dive (aka succinct bullet points for your short attention spans) for how to think about whether a bet (or gambler) is lucky or smart.

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Luck vs. Skill in Sports Betting

It’s Better To Be Lucky and Good

First thing’s first. The obvious sentiment underlying this article is that you should aspire to be smart rather than lucky, and nobody with half a brain would really fight me on that. BUT, while it’s both more gratifying and impressive to succeed based on skill rather than good fortune, the reality is that you take what you can get - this is still gambling after all. And, if we’re being honest, you need some luck at the end of the day.

As the old trope goes, it’s better to be lucky THAN good; but you cant control luck, only the quality of the bets, and then you let the chips fall where they may. Try your best to be good, and then hope you also have luck on your side. Pray you don't need it, but often you will.

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The Self Fulfilling Prophecy

One of the biggest challenges in deciding why a bet was successful is the fact that you have an answer right in front of you. The bet won? Well, clearly it was smart, or vice versa. But the reality isn't so simple.

It’s a common mistake to judge a result purely on the outcome, and you need to dig a little deeper to find real insight. Will you be able to come up with some mathematical answer that says a bet was 63% brains and 37% good breaks? Of course not. As much as gambling is an exercise in mathematical analysis and probability, quantifying luck with numbers is like trying to explain The Odyssey using organic chemistry. But don't make the mistake of thinking the outcome dictates the quality.

Did the Premise Line Up With the Conclusion?

This is one of the two most important questions to ask yourself as a gambler after a bet finishes (the other coming very soon…). When you make a pick, your reasoning should line up with some expectation you have about the game. I think the tempo is going to be high so I like the over, I think player X has a bad matchup so I’m taking his under on points, etc.

Well, after the game ends, you should look and see if the reason you expected an outcome was true. Maybe the pace was high but goals just didn't come, or maybe the pace was slow but you got the right bounces. In those cases you would probably say luck had had a heavier influence than normal.

Would You Make This Bet Again?

It’s such a simple question, but oddly profound. Whether the bet ends in a win or a loss, look yourself in the mirror and honestly ask whether you would make that exact same bet, at the same odds, tomorrow.

It may seem silly, but as gamblers the best way to get answers is to line up your problem with your incentives and use them to your advantage (aka, money talks). You might be upset and say you got unlucky after losing a bet, but if that’s the case you should have no problem taking on the same risk again.

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Replicating the Analysis

One of the most crucial skills in gambling is finding angles and advantages that are repeatable. One win or loss does not a gambler make (that’s right, I can weave in Aristotle), and success is built on being able to find value day in and day out.

Now, that doesn’t mean making the same bet or even looking for the same type of edge. The key is finding a method for analyzing and pulling the trigger on bets that puts you on the better side often enough to be profitable. The more haphazard your approach is, the more luck is involved. Find skills that lead to profitable results over the long term and you’ll leave less to chance.

Follow The Money

To piggyback off the last point, one of the most significant factors in determining luck vs. intelligence in gambling is where success comes from. And, as much as I try not to rip on parlay gamblers, the reality is that big accounts in the Twitter space are often the result of a big parlay or two. But guess what? Repeating a +27563 ticket is pretty fucking hard, and building a strategy based on that type of win is a dangerous game.

The longer the odds, the more luck comes into play. If you need seven legs all to hit on a parlay, you’re putting yourself in a situation where only one outcome yields profit, while straight bets only require four out of seven winners for profit. Both in gambling and tailing, your best chance of succeeding from smart analysis (rather than luck) is to grind the hard way.

How “Smart” Do You Really Need To Be?

 As much as we want to believe that we can solve the puzzle of sports gambling, the reality is that you need some luck. The more the better, honestly, and even the smartest gamblers will fail if they dont get the right kicks.

However, you cant win on luck alone. If you bet on pure chance, then that -110 price the book gives you will cause you to lose long term, meaning you NEED to be at least smart enough to overcome that cost of admission. How hard is that? Well, the best of the best hit at a 55-58% effective clip, so the difference between pure luck and the highest intelligence is only about 6.5% long term.

That means you need to make up about 4-5 extra bets out of 100 to succeed, which is a very attainable number. The key is to use that intelligence to make a few smart bets (or avoid a few mistake) on the margins to get you there.

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.