Soccer Best Bets From Europe’s Biggest Leagues This Weekend: August 12, 13 & 14, 2022

We’re back with Prospector Sam's second installment of random European soccer games he's choosing to bet on this weekend, August 12, 13 and 14 2022!

So, we'll stop wasting time and give you what you want. Keep reading for an unfiltered version of your favorite handicapper's favorite handicapper (all odds correct as of submission of the story)...

The gang’s all back! Despite some stragglers waiting an extra few days to kick off their seasons, we now have every major league in Europe playing this weekend and boy is it great. I’d call it an “embarrassment of riches,” but as we learned last week all that glitters isn’t gold.

After kicking off the weekend with a win, we got metaphorically waterboarded by Leipzig, who somehow didn’t manage to score two goals despite it being almost impossible not to. I’m a fairly big proponent of honesty evaluating my picks after the fact — some are bad choices, some are bad outcomes — and boy did we get railroaded there.

With even more games to choose from and teams rounding into form, we can still feel good about continuing to pull the trigger aggressively on games where we find value (I find value? I don’t know, I tend to think of us as a team but maybe that’s because I’m a bit off in the head). So, while last week’s frustrations might cause a bit of skittishness, the key to making money is confidence and plowing ahead. With that, time for some bets.

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European Soccer: Best Bets This Weekend

Germany: Freiburg vs. Dortmund Best Bet

Kickoff: 2:30PM ET on Friday, August 12
Play: Dortmund Team Total Over 1.5 (-120) - 2.5 units

You’re going to notice a pattern this week. In fact, it’s probably more than a pattern. It’s basically three nearly identical angles that simply span across three countries. Maybe the overlap is because I’m skewing towards a certain bet or because things just worked out that way, but we’re pretty much replicating the same idea (with almost the same odds) three days in a row. Sorry, or you're welcome, depending on how much you like the strategy (and, you know, how well it performs).

What is our three-peat bet, you ask? Superior away teams with valuable odds on team totals. If you’ve made it this far, you’ve likely heard of Dortmund but may or may not be familiar with Freiburg (at least, from a soccer standpoint). Dortmund are a perennial German giant/second fiddle to Bayern, while Freiburg peddle in the “hopefully we make something in Europe” category.

Currently, though, these odds reflect a bit of change from the norm in both sides. Dortmund lost their talismanic striker Erling Haaland to Manchester City and didn’t really impress in their 1-0 win over Leverkusen at home to open the campaign, while Freiburg qualified for Europa last season and hammered the bejesus out of Augsburg last week in a 4-0 win.

Buuuutttt, I don’t understand how Dortmund are just -120 to score Over 1.5 goals. This team scored 85 goals in 34 games alone last season (many of which with Haaland hurt), and their aggressive style leads to production. Sure, Week 1 may have shown a bit of rust, but I expect them to put up two against pretty much any team that isn’t Bayern or Leipzig, and -120 is an absolutely preposterous number against Freiburg. The home side have some quality and it won’t be a cakewalk by any means, but it’s a number I really cant turn down based on statistics and history, so I’ll run headfirst into this wall. We go big in our opening bet.

Italy: Sampdoria vs. Atalanta Best Bet

Kickoff: 12:30PM ET on Saturday, August 13
Play: Atalanta Team Total Over 1.5 (-132) - 2 units + Atalanta Team Total Over 2.5 (+255) - 1 unit

Scene 1, Take 2! This bet has a slight twist in how we attack it, but the premise is mostly the same. Atalanta are a perennial side contending for European spots in Italy (though admittedly they fell off a bit last season), while Sampdoria skew between middle of the table to right near the relegation spots.

Despite the fact that Atalanta aren’t quite as impressive as they've been in the past, we’re going to take them at Over 1.5 (-132) and Over 2.5 (+255). Why? Well, Atalanta play a style that can appropriately be described as “kamikaze-esque.” They push players forward to attack and leave their back exposed, which creates lots of goals on both ends of the pitch. They averaged nearly two goals per game last season while conceding well over over per. On the other side, Sampdoria produced close to the opposite result, conceding nearly two per game while scoring over a goal a game.

So, with all that in mind, I think this game could produce a lot of fireworks. Not only is that important for our Atalanta goal total, but Sampdoria scoring will push Atalanta to score more, which helps reach our higher total. Atalanta have scored multiple in four of the last five games these two played, and 3+ in two of those (which happen to be both of the games they played last season). It’s a bold approach given that this is the first game of the campaign and there may be kinks to work out, but I trust Atalanta to do what they do best and go for the jugular early and often.

France: Brest vs. Marseille Best Bet

Kickoff: 2:45PM ET on Sunday, August 14
Play: Marseille Team Total Over 1.5 (-120) - 1.5 units 

Last but not least we have our friends from Marseille. This bet is my most conservative of the bunch at only 1.5 units, but that has more to do with my respect for Brest (the jokes and double entendres write themselves here) than it does with my doubts about the visitors. Brest had a rough outing in Week 1 against Lens, losing 3-2, but typically they’re a solid side and French soccer doesn’t produce the same goal totals as other leagues (unless you’re watching PSG). While Marseille came out and pounded Reims in their opening match 4-1, they aren’t a team who typically puts up huge numbers on the offensive end either.

Don’t take that as me saying I’m not confident in this pick. I certainly am and I like it a lot. But, as a gambler, I have to assess which games have the best value and where to allocate the most risk. Marseille is a strong choice and 1.5 units is a decent sized wager, but I’m more willing to take on a bigger bet with teams who I have more faith in offensively, which is why this one has a lower unit size. That said, Marseille have scored multiple in four of their last five against Brest as well and Brests normally come in pairs anyway (OK, I’m done), so this one is worth a solid hack as well.