Six MLB Futures Bets You Need to Make Now (But Probably Won’t)

Baseball season is a beautiful thing. The action ramps up with the weather, and before you know it, we’re in a nice, hot summer right alongside some hotly contested spots in the MLB standings. Division battles can be won and lost in the summer months, as big leads can dwindle due to a mid-season slump.

Betting on MLB futures is a great way to have some skin in the game as those battles unfold. Riding the highs and lows with your favorite team or a Cinderella underdog can make the season that much more exciting, especially when it’s a ticket that gives you something to root for all the way to the season’s final day.

MORE: Best props in MLB Today

We’re using the power of our A.I. model’s predictive analytics and a little gut feeling of our own to pick one bet from each division in baseball that we think you should make based on the value identified by our model. Sounds straightforward, right? Wrong. These bets aren’t appealing on paper. What they are, is mispriced or vulnerable in the market and worth a wager if you want to seize the value in the odds while you can.

Don't forget, it's crucial to sign up at all the sportsbooks available to you if you want to get the best odds for each of these bets. You can score some pretty sweet bonuses with a new account so make sure you check out DraftKings for $150 in free bets, BetMGM for a risk-free wager up to $1,000 and more on our Best Sportsbooks page.

Here are six bets in the MLB futures market that you should make, but probably won’t:

Minnesota Twins to Win the American League +850 on DraftKings

Why you should: The Twins have pushed out to an early lead in the AL Central, buoyed by a disastrous Chicago White Sox team that can’t get out of its own way and a Guardians struggling to find .500 like reading a ‘Where’s Waldo’ book. Minnesota sits with a 3.5-game lead over Cleveland for first place. The Tigers have strung together some solid stretches in May, but still look like a team that needs work.

The Twins’ path to the playoffs is clear and an AL Central title would put them 7 wins away from an AL pennant. They get the fifth-highest probability to win the American League from our model, and their price of +850 is close to fair (we’d make it +925 with our 9.5% probability).

Why you won’t: The rest of the American League, for starters. The Twins have a 9-5 record against their division opponents compared to just a 14-13 record (7-6 against AL teams) otherwise. Internally, their best hitter is Trevor Larnach who is batting .234 while offensive “star” Carlos Correa is hitting .207 with a .280 OBP. That doesn't inspire confidence in a postseason run.

Tampa Bay Rays to Win the American League East -135 on DraftKings

Why you should: This will be the only bet in this article with juice, but for good reason. The Rays are an incredible baseball team. They were the first to 30 wins, and as of this writing, no other team has more than 26. They have the third-lowest payroll in Major League Baseball and are the best team in the league. Offensively, they lead MLB in batting average, hits, runs scored, home runs and OBP. Their pitching leads all of baseball in ERA and Wins. They were -155 last week

Why you won’t: Because you want to bet on the Orioles. Baltimore is trying to emulate the Rays with homegrown talent and a carefully crafted Money-ball style roster (second-lowest payroll in the league). We’d love to make them our pick at +1600 to win the AL East, but in the war of attrition that is the MLB season, we’re comfortable backing the 54% probability given by our model for Tampa Bay. You can consider Baltimore our “1B” pick for a little pizza-money-sized sprinkle if that’s not cheating,

 

Los Angeles Angels to Win the AL West +600 and the American League +2000 on DraftKings

Why you should: Okay, so this is two picks. Los Angeles sits just a half-game ahead of the Astros, who are themselves four games behind the Rangers, yet still have a better price at 6-1 odds.

The books are reluctant to give us too good a price on the Astros because of their pedigree, despite their shortcomings at the dish this season (22^nd in runs scored, 24^th in OBP). DimersBOT gives L.A a 13% chance to win the division, and 6.6% to win the Pennant, fairly in line with their implied probabilities of 14.3% (+600) and 4.8% (+2000). For reference, we give the Rangers a 6% chance to win the American League but they sit at just +1300.

We don’t hate the Rangers to win the division at +300 either. Just anything besides the Astros (+110 with a 387% probability). Gross.

Why you won’t: You’re afraid of the Astros, we get it. They are defending champs, after all. But look, they just don’t have the mojo this year and the American League is as competitive as ever. They’re in a three-team race for the division and don’t have a significant advantage over their potential AL opponents. You’re also probably afraid of the Angels themselves, which is understandable for a team that hasn’t finished over .500 since 2015.

Pittsburgh Pirates to Win the National League Central +1100 on DraftKings

Why you should: Because this team was 20-8 before a brutal May stretch that saw them lose 11 of 13 games. DimersBOT projects an 8.5% chance for the Buccos to win their first division crown since moving to the NL Central in 1994, perfectly aligned with their implied probability of 8.3%. They’re only 1.5 games back from the Brewers for the division lead and can close that gap quickly if they collect themselves.

Why you won’t: Because this team was 20-8 before a brutal May stretch that saw…. yeah, you get the picture. Any team that picks up two wins in two weeks is sure to raise some red flags. However, +1100 is incredible value for a team that’s narrowly behind the division leader, and the only way this price gets better, is if Pittsburgh falls further back in the race, likely to the point that you won’t believe they can pull it off.

Atlanta Braves to Win the World Series +500 on BetMGM

Why you should: Because the Braves are excellent. They’re two years removed from being the World Series champs, and that’s when they didn’t have Ronald Acuna Jr. because of injury. They have top-notch pitching and an elite offense. They’re running away with an NL East crown in a division that included the $10 billion Mets’ payroll and match up as well as any of their potential NLDS and NLCS opponents. They have the second-highest probability from our model to win the Fall Classic at 13.6%.

Why you won’t: No one likes betting on favorites. It’s not as fun; you want a better price and that’s reasonable. 5-1 on your return is a solid investment, but with so much other value on the board like the Rays at +700, the Yankees at +1400 and even the Dodgers at +650, you’re likely looking elsewhere. We’re not saying those aren’t good plays either, but the Braves to win it all would be our one bet from the NL East.

Los Angeles Dodgers to Win the World Series +650 on BetMGM

Why you should: The Dodgers are a carbon copy of the Braves in a nearly identical scenario: significantly better than the rest of their division with great pitching and strong bats. Their hitting leaves a bit to be desired with the league’s 26^th-best batting average, but they manufacture runs at the league’s fourth-highest clip. They’ve lost just four of their last 20 games, proving they have the resilience, veteran presence and roster to get it done.

Why you won’t: You’re a Dodger hater or probably a fan of another NL West team. Sorry Padres fans, but you’re still not “what’s in.” Or you hate making money, I don’t know. You should bet on the Dodgers is what I’m saying.