Should You Tail or Fade the Public’s Favorite NBA Futures Bets This Season?

After four months of waiting, the 2023-24 NBA season is finally here! After the Denver Nuggets were crowned champions in June, it’s been a wild offseason. We had the Damian Lillard trade saga, James Harden drama (naturally) and Jimmy Butler’s always priceless media day. Now it’s time to look ahead, and we mean way ahead.

We’ve been rolling out NBA futures looks for the past few weeks, all curated around long-term looks at the upcoming season. Win total bets, futures to make, and data-driven predictions you need to see while the value is there.

To make things even sweeter, as Dimers reported on FanDuel Sportsbook’s exclusive offer that gets you three months of NBA League Pass for placing just a $5 bet. And if you take advantage of that offer, we’ve written up the five players and teams you need to watch this season. Learn more about the offer here, and be sure to check out our Best Sportsbooks section to make sure you’re not sleeping on other primo offers.

For this feature, we’re going to see how the public’s most popular NBA futures bets on DraftKings Sportsbook compare to our model’s projections for the entire season. We’ll look at both conferences and the championship markets. If you’re unaware, the “handle” is the amount of money wagered whereas “bets” refers to the raw number of bets placed.

Eastern Conference Winner

Boston Celtics

Handle: 33%
Bets: 36%

The team with the most money on them to win the Eastern Conference, the Celtics as usual have lofty expectations this season. But after falling to the Miami Heat in seven games in last year’s ECF, the standard is as high as ever. A full third of the ECF money is on the Celtics at +180, and our model gives them a 29.2% chance to punch their ticket to the Finals. However, their odds imply a 35.7% chance, meaning they should be closer to +250 so even though they have the second-highest probability, the value isn’t there.

Verdict: FADE

Milwaukee Bucks

Handle: 29%
Bets: 39%

The reason the Celtics have the second-highest probability to win the East? Because the Bucks are number one. Milwaukee rocked the NBA world when they acquired superstar Damian Lillard from the Blazers in a multi-team trade that ultimately led to Jrue Holiday landing with those very Celtics. Giannis Antetokounmpo just signed a three-year megadeal with Milwaukee and it is full steam ahead for the Bucks. Our model agrees, not only giving them a 33.7% probability to make the Finals, but that’s just about in line with their odds. While it’d be nice to get this just a littttle closer to +195 which is our model’s fair price, it’s a minor difference.

Verdict: TAIL

Miami Heat

Handle: 15%
Bets: 11%

We go from two teams eliminated by the Heat last year to the Heat themselves. Miami was a bit of a Cinderella team last year, as much as a team led by Jimmy Butler can be considered one anyway, but ultimately fell to the superior and dominant Nuggets in five games. They’ll look to replicate that success and are the last team with double-digit backing by both handle and bets. At +1100, their odds are certainly appealing and the price is right, implying an 8.3% chance while our model says a 7.9% probability. You can find them at +1300 on other books if you look around, so not only do the Heat look like value, they look like a must-bet.

Verdict: TAIL

Western Conference Winner

Phoenix Suns

Handle: 19%
Bets: 23%

If it’s parity you’re looking for, you’ll (somewhat) find it in the Western Conference as opposed to the East. As with most sports, there’s usually a much wider skill gap at the top of one conference/league when compared to the other and that’s the case this year for the East. Evidenced both by the odds, (just two teams shorter than +1000 in the East compared to four in the West) and in the splits. But enough about semi-parity, let’s talk about the Suns. Gone is veteran Chris Paul, who will be on the other side when Phoenix plays Golden State this season. In his place is the younger, more durable Bradley Beal who alongside Kevin Durant and Devin Booker will look to erase the sour taste of several recent postseason exits in Phoenix. DimersBOT gives the Suns an 18.8% chance of winning the West. Their DraftKings odds of +350 suggest a 22.2% chance, so we’re looking at odds that should be closer to +450. Most popular + underpriced = a pass.

Verdict: FADE

Denver Nuggets

Handle: 18%
Bets: 20%

Last year’s champions are the betting favorite at +260 but are second in total money, though by just a lone percent. Denver rolled out an unstoppable formula last season, especially down the postseason stretch, all centered around, well, their center. Nikola Jokic is insanely dominant in the paint and has a sniper of a deep ball that looks like poetry in motion when he releases. Alongside Jamal Murray and key role players Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr., their core is returning and there’s no reason they can’t go do it again. However, their odds of +260 at DraftKings imply a 27.8% chance of winning the West, while our model projects them with a 23.75 probability. +325 is the price you want, so for now, it’s a fade on Denver based on price.

Verdict: FADE

Los Angeles Lakers

Handle: 15%
Bets: 17%

The Lakers went on a memorable run in last year’s playoffs that ended with a somewhat predictable sweep at the hands of the Nuggets. The Lakers battled with close games throughout, but they simply had no match for the Joker. What they need this year is for Anthony Davis to be the team’s best player night in and night out. They need him healthy and ready to be the main contributor. That’s not a dig at LeBron, who enters his 21^st season in the NBA and will still be great, but simply a reality. Our model gives Los Angeles a 14.4% probability of making it all the way to the Finals and their odds on DraftKings of +650 suggest a 13.3% probability. Not only is that some slight value on its own, but they can be found at +750 if you shop around, showing substantial value on the Lakers in this market.

Verdict: TAIL

NBA Champion

Denver Nuggets

Handle: 19%
Bets: 17%

We already talked about how good the Nuggets are and why they have all the tools for a repeat run. But should you bet on them? They just edge out the Celtics as the most-bet team with a 19% split in the handle but they’re not the betting favorite. They get +550 odds on DraftKings which suggests a 15.4% probability to run it back, while our model gives them a 13.6% chance. This means their odds should really be at +650 or better to make them a good play. It’s not a bad price, but it’s not quite right.

Verdict: FADE

Boston Celtics

Handle: 18%
Bets: 18%

Absolutely nothing short of a title will be acceptable for Celtics fans this year. They’re too talented, win too many games and have too much money invested in their team to come up short of the ultimate goal and get away with it. And not for nothing, but with the Patriots in the gutter and the Red Sox coming off a sub-.500 season, they’re getting restless in Boston. Our model gives them a 17.9% probability while their +400 odds imply a 20% chance. That would make our fair price around +450, so it’s not a total fade, but see if you can get the C’s in that range.

VERDICT: PLAYABLE

Milwaukee Bucks

Handle: 14%
Bets: 13%

The Bucks are surprisingly not the public’s favorite bet after getting Damian Lillard, but the sportsbooks think they should be. They share +400 odds with the Celtics to win it all, meaning the oddsmakers see it as a toss-up between the two. Our model doesn’t think it should be quite so close, however, as their 21.7% probability from DimersBOT says there’s value in their odds which imply a 20% chance. Just another reason to root for The Greek Freak and DameTime this season.

VERDICT: TAIL

Get ready for an amazing time while also gambling responsibly! Picture it as pure entertainment, not some way to strike it rich quickly. Only wager money that you're totally fine with losing. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support. Let the good times roll!