Oddsmakers Set Historic Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Line for NFC Championship - Experts Update Prop Projection

On the heels of one of the greatest running back seasons in NFL history, Eagles RB Saquon Barkley has channeled that same energy in the NFL postseason, resulting in the sportsbooks setting an unprecedented rushing yards line for the superstar running back in Sunday's NFC Championship vs. the Washington Commanders.

130.5.

That's the number set for Barkley's rushing yards Over/Under at DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday's contest at Lincoln Financial Field.

A rushing line never before seen, it is the highest in DraftKings Sportsbook's history ... and it still might not be high enough.

In light of this astronomical rushing yards line, our data experts at Dimers.com have run updated simulations on the NFC Championship to reflect the oddsmakers' projections for the one-of-a-kind running back.

Inside Saquon Barkley's 2024-25 Season

After racking up 2,005 rushing yards in the regular season and with a chance to set the single-season NFL Rushing Yards record of 2,105 yards set by Eric Dickerson in 1984, Barkley sat out Week 18.

He averaged 129.3 rushing yards per game this season (including playoffs) and went under 100 yards just five times.

Barkley went over 130.5 rushing yards in 7 of 16 games this season, plus 1 of 2 playoff games so far. Two of those games he went over were vs. the Commanders, when he tallied 146 and 150 rushing yards.

In three of the games he went under, he faced the league's 5th, 6th and 14th-best rushing defense in the regular season (Steelers, Buccaneers, Falcons), while the Commanders ranked 28th in the entire NFL in rushing defense, allowing 136.7 per game.

Expert Predictions - Will Saquon Barkley Go Over or Under 130.5 Rushing Yards vs. Commanders?

The short answer according to Dimers' predictions: YES.

As of now, we project Saquon Barkley for 141 rushing yards vs. the Washington Commanders on Sunday.

Since DraftKings Sportsbook set the line, we've seen it steam down a couple of yards to 128.5, suggesting that the big money is hitting the under on this first-of-its-kind rushing line, but that's only working on your favor if you think he goes over.

After correctly predicting Saquon Barkley's massive day vs. the Rams in the Divisional Round, the DimersBOT model is again backing him for a significant output. 

Barkley made a habit of repeat performances when facing the same team twice this year - he hit 100+ yards both times vs. the Packers, 145+ yards both times vs. the Commanders and 205+ both times vs. the Rams.

As the Commanders allowed Barkley to hit this mark in both games, plus the Dimers model's prediction, he's well-positioned for another huge day in the NFC Championship.

Similarly, based on his previous performances and the Dimers' model's projections, bettors can consider taking his alternate line of 140+ rushing yards at plus money odds of +125.

Of course, no matter what side you're taking, you should be on the lookout for the best possible number. Here's a look at Barkley's rushing yards line on other sportsbooks, with the best line and best odds noted in green:

Bet Saquon Barkley's Rushing Yards Prop at Bet365

As you can see via the table above, Barkley's best odds for his rushing yards prop are at Bet365, set for -110 on both the Over and Under.

With the Dimers' model projecting the over, getting the best odds for this prop are crucial.

New users can bet this prop and secure $150 in bonus bets, win or lose, with the bet365 bonus code DIMERS, revealed here.

NFC Championship: Eagles vs. Commanders Betting Preview

The Dimers predictive model has up-to-date predictions for the Spread, Moneyline and Total in the NFC Championship game between the Eagles and Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field.

Use the interactive widget below to quickly view our latest predictions in each market:

Pre-Game Probabilities

Last Updated: 5:45PM, Jan 26

Spread

Over / Under

Moneyline

Commanders

Commanders +6.5

57%

43%

-120

-102

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See Matchup

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Eagles

Commanders WAS

-120

Commanders +6.5

57%

43%

See Matchup

Eagles PHI

-102

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Below, check out all the important details on Sunday’s game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.

NFC Championship Game Details

Key information on the Commanders vs. Eagles matchup, including where the game is and what time it kicks off.

• Teams: Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
• Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025
• Kickoff: 3PM EST
• Location: Lincoln Financial Field
• NFL standings: Current NFL division standings
• NFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury report

NFC Championship Odds

Odds for the key markets in the Eagles-Commanders NFL contest.

• Spread: Commanders +6.5 (-120), Eagles -5.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Commanders +235, Eagles -290
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-105)

The odds and lines presented in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Expert prediction: Eagles vs. Commanders

Using cutting-edge data analysis and computer power, the experts at Dimers have executed 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Commanders vs. Eagles matchup.

According to Dimers' popular predictive analytics model, the Eagles are more likely to beat the Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field. This prediction is based on the model giving the Eagles a 70% chance of winning the game.

Furthermore, Dimers predicts that the Commanders (+6.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the 47.5-point over/under is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

These predictions and probabilities are accurate at the time of publication but are subject to change.

Additional NFL Player Prop Projections

For those unfamiliar, NFL player prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on Sunday's game without necessarily betting on its outcome.

Below, view our projected stats for key players in the Eagles offense, as well as our top three most-likely First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer predictions:

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: Jalen Hurts, 191 yards
• Receiving yards: A.J. Brown, 57 yards
• Rushing yards: Saquon Barkley, 141 yards

First touchdown scorer predictions

• Jalen Hurts: 17.4% probability
• Saquon Barkley: 16.1% probability
• A.J. Brown: 5.6% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• Jalen Hurts: 64.6% probability
• Saquon Barkley: 60.9% probability
• A.J. Brown: 28.0% probability

NFC Championship: Eagles vs. Commanders

Get ready for Sunday's matchup between the Commanders and Eagles in the NFC Championship Game of the NFL season at Lincoln Financial Field, which is scheduled to start at 3PM EST. We emphasize that all of the NFL best bets and NFL predictions in this article are derived from 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Commanders vs. Eagles matchup, and they are correct at the time of publication. They aim to assist you make more informed choices when placing bets at online sportsbooks.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

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