Saquon Barkley can Set NFL Playoffs Rushing Record in Super Bowl LIX - Experts Predict His Chances With Updated Projections

Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans is upon us with the Kansas City Chiefs facing off against the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday, February 9, 2025 in a rematch of Super Bowl 57.

There's plenty of offensive firepower on both sidelines in this one, with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Travis Kelce and A.J. Brown all among the best in the league at their respective positions.

While they all have one united goal - win the Super Bowl - one of those players in particular, Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, has a pair of historical NFL milestones within reach, conveniently on his 28th birthday, Super Bowl Sunday.

RELATED: Four Data Pros Predict Super Bowl LIX

With 2,447 rushing yards between the regular season and playoffs, Barkley is just 30 yards away from setting the all-time whole season rushing record, set by Broncos RB Terrell Davis back in 1998.

Barring one of the worst games of his career, Barkley should cruise to 2,477 yards with ease, perhaps even in the first quarter. If he rushes for 53 yards, he'll be the first player ever to record 2,500 across a full year.

But beyond that, there's another rushing record within reach - the all-time postseason rushing record of 610 yards set by Washington RB John Riggins in 1982.

Single Postseason Rushing Yards Leaders

At 442 yards, Barkley needs 169 more rushing yards to surpass Riggins and set a record that's unlikely to be challenged any time soon in today's pass-forward NFL game.

In the wake of this potential feat, our data experts at Dimers have run a special simulation to determine the likelihood of Barkley reaching at least 169 yards in the Super Bowl. Let's dive in.

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Super Bowl Prop Predictions - Saquon Barkley Chases Rushing Record

After sitting the regular season finale with Erick Dickerson's all-time rushing record on the line, Saquon Barkley finished the regular season 2,005 rushing yards, the 8th-most all time, and second-most among active players (Derrick Henry is 5th with 2,027). He's expected to win Offensive Player of the Year at the NFL Honors on Friday night.

The finalists for AP Offensive Player of the Year presented by @surface! #NFLHonors pic.twitter.com/N5kcta7tkM

— NFL (@NFL) January 23, 2025

He recorded six runs of 50+ yards, the most in the league, which continued into the postseason as he recorded multiple 60+ rushing touchdowns, leading to a pair of King of the End Zone wins - see our King of the End Zone projections for the Super Bowl.

He followed that up with his 442-yard total in the postseason, rushing for 118+ yards in each game so far.

So, what does our data model say about his chances to set the all-time postseason rushing record?

For starters, we project Barkley for 123.8 rushing yards in Super Bowl LIX. His rushing line is set at 109.5 yards, giving us a solid projection for him to go over his standard line, which you can find an edge on based on the -110 odds available at FanDuel, with 125+ rushing yards for Saquon Barkley priced at +140.

Regarding the NFL postseason rushing record, our data team has determined that Saquon Barkley has a 14.8% chance to reach 169 total rushing yards in the Super Bowl. That means that out of 10,000 simulations of Super Bowl LIX, Barkley hits 169+ in 1,480 of them.

A 14.8% probability implies fair odds of +575, a little longer than the +500 odds on offer at FanDuel, a surprisingly close price given the sportsbook's tendency to shortchange bettors on specialty markets where it's more difficult for recreational bettors to identify the value (or lack thereof).

A few things stand in Barkley's way. For one, the remaining 85.2% probability that our model gives for Barkley to come up short of the record. For another, in their current dynasty, the Kansas City Chiefs have never allowed a 100+ yard rusher through 18 postseason games. Not once.

They allowed one player to reach 100+ rushing yards this season - Ravens QB Lamar Jackson back in Week 1.

Barkley also needs to get into the open field to start racking up the yards. For all of his exceptional ability, he averages just over 2.0 yards after contact, meaning if he doesn't get past the line of scrimmage untouched, it will take a lot of volume for him to reach his over of 110 yards, let alone 169 to break the record.

Our Verdict

Based on our model's initial projection, specific probability for Barkley to reach 169 yards and the challenging defensive matchup, we're inclined to say no, Barkley will not the all-time playoff rushing record in the 2025 Super Bowl.

However, even with these monumental records on the line, Barkley has his eyes set on one goal - hoisting the Lombardi Trophy alongside his new teammates.

"The only thing that makes it special," Saquon Barkley told the media, "is winning a Super Bowl."

Come Sunday, we'll see just how many milestones Saquon Barkley checks off and adds to his stellar career.

For more Super Bowl 59 betting insights, read our predictions below or visit our full game preview here.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LIX Game Details

Check out all the important details on The Big Game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.

• Teams: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
• Date: Sunday, February 9, 2025
• Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. EST
• Location: Caesars Superdome
• NFL standings: Current NFL division standings
• NFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury report

Super Bowl 59 Odds

Odds for the key markets in the Chiefs-Eagles battle:

• Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-110), Eagles +1.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Chiefs -124, Eagles +110
• Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-105/-110)

The odds and lines featured here are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Fans of both teams can unlock betting bonuses with the NFL betting promos from DraftKings, BetMGM, and FanDuel, while Bet365’s $150 sign-up offer has emerged as the most popular Eagles-Chiefs betting deal among local Eagles fans in Pennsylvania.

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Dimers Super Bowl 59 Resources

• Dimers Pro Big Game Pack: Everything you need for Super Bowl LIX, a Dimers pro exclusive. 
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• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
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